I think things will probably be closer than the polls have said (popular vote, not necessarily electoral), but very unlikely McCain will win. We can hope, but I think it’s unlikely. If he does, basically ALL the polling organizations are going to have zero credibility in the future.
If McCain can hold Florida and somehow pulls PA, it could portend a big loss for Obama. A win in PA will likely indicate a hold in Ohio in Florida - and that will just about do it. PA is a huge mountain to climb but man, if it goes RED tonight, I will be dancin’ in the street. (Probably avoiding Black Panther gunshots)
dear GovernmentShrinker, in the words of Ronald Reagan, “there you go again.”
If the election is very close, nearly ALL of the polling organizations will have zero credibility.
BUt that won’t stop the media and the pollsters from toddling right along into the future as if nothing went wrong.
Now, think, please.
If polls are wrong enough to allow for a close election (Battleground has it close), then they are wrong enough to potentially allow for a McCain win.
When you go behind the headlines and analyze the polls, they look full of flaws.
Here’s something to consider regarding the IBD/TIPP poll that did so well last time. Their final poll showed Obama outpolling McCain in the popular vote IN THE SOUTH.
With glitches like that one, it’s hard to trust their overall margin of over 7 points to Obama.
They actually FORCED allocated undecideds. When people wouldn’t say who they leaned toward, IBD came up with some type of formula (???) that gave the majority of them to Obama.
I don’t know the outcome, but the polls already don’t look reliable.
If McCain loses by anything like the average of most polls, I’ll say, hey, even a broken clock is right twice a day.
Not good to surrender the battlefield before the battle is won.