Posted on 11/04/2008 10:04:22 AM PST by LS
First, I don't have numbers. This is just a report based on phone contacts with other people at "red" polling places and with Montgomery County (Dayton) GOP. (Kerry won this county by 2% in 04)
1) ALL the red precincts were extraordinarily heavy until about noon. Some finally calmed down. Turnout was at very, very high levels. 3x the wait time of 2004.
County GOP says we're hearing this from all our red areas.
2) Better news: many of the Dem and African-American precincts coming in way low. They are voted out through early voting.
3) HEARING---this is hearsay from people on the ground in Warren (deep, deep red, which gave Bush his win in 04)---that Warren turnout is "massive."
In my heavily conservative precinct in Hamilton County (SW Ohio) this morning at 6:45, it was the longest line I’ve ever seen in fifteen years. My wife voted at about noon and she said it was a madhouse with a long line. Heavy turnout. The broken glass conservatives are out and voting.
Excellent, thank you.
Rural Warren County here, three precincts in one location. Parking lot completely full, but operations moving smoothly. I was #92 but I am not sure how many in my precinct are registered anymore. They split the precinct from the last election. But between absentees and early votes I’m betting we surpass 2004.
Also, the Warren County courthouse early voting location through the weekend had two hour waits.
I’m feeling good about OH.
I’m in CO, and I will say there are a LOT of Obamists here. But... I also know a lot of PUMAs. Oh, they don’t even know what a PUMA is. But they are PUMAs all the same. Many of them disgusted by Obama’s intimidation, you-better-march-in-lockstep, our-enemies-are-racists, and assorted propoganda. Many disgusted by the way Hillary and her supporters were treated. Many further disgusted by the exact same tactics then being deployed against Palin.
How many democrats will secretly vote for McCain? Hard to say, but it will be significant. Significant enough?
Time will tell. My feeling, however, is this: Obama’s people are WAYYY overconfident, even more overconfident than Kerry’s people were. If a healthy balance can be struck between Obama people not bothering to vote, and McCain people not giving up, we just might win this.
Just got back from voting in Gwinnett County Georgia. The precinct was very busy with heavy voting. The precinct is overwhelmingly minority and there were just a few of us her who were not minority. However, the precinct is predominately Hispanic and the minorities who were there were heavily black. the latins are not voting. If this is because they are not citizens or not motivated I don’t know. But I would guess that is a good sign.
Didn’t they run out of ballots in Joplin in ‘06?
Just got back from voting in Gwinnett County Georgia. The precinct was very busy with heavy voting. The precinct is overwhelmingly minority and there were just a few of us her who were not minority. However, the precinct is predominately Hispanic and the minorities who were there were heavily black. the latins are not voting. If this is because they are not citizens or not motivated I don’t know. But I would guess that is a good sign.
Yes! My wife is about to close our gunshop and go vote. We’re in Fair Play.
I’ve been watching Fox News Channel most of the morning, and apparently, their producers and camera people are unable to find any white people actually voting.
There are approximately 15 million black adults in this country, and by the end of the day, Fox News Channels will have videotaped every single one of them voting.
Shame on Fox. They are firmly and irretrievably on the Dark Side. (And that is not a reference to black people, but rather, to evil.)
This is a number floating around, I saw it at campaign spot. This isn’t actual votes but party registrations who voter early. Obama was suppose to have this massive wave, yet early voting was tied in terms of turn out.
God bless and thanks for your reporting!
Keep us posted..
I had a call a short while ago from a friend of mine here in Warren County, an African American gentleman, who likes to "argue" politics with me. He was an Obama supporter, but he called me after leaving the polling place to tell me he couldn't bring himself to vote for him. He just couldn't do it. :-)
I live at Rogersville. 700 had voted by 9:00...that’s a lot for us.
LS...since you’re such a poll guru, do you think rove is just pitching the public polls to us and that’s why he keeps claiming the big victory for BO? if so, why isn’t rove breaking them down? or is there some other motive for him to keep pitching it the way he does?
I’m speaking for KESG, too. :-) But I think you fine folks in Wisconsin are going to be pleasantly surprised at your Presidential vote totals tonight. Just a hunch.
Very encouraging news from OH and MO. A pattern that seems to be repeating itself all over our great nation. Turnout in VA is heavy throughout, from what I’ve been hearing (nothing official, just media reports and chatter among colleagues).
As to speculation that McC voters avoid pollsters, I did my little bit to add to that rep. As I was walking in, a guy at a card table outside asked me if I'd like to take an exit poll after voting. I said, "sure"; then, like the chicken I am, I walked out the back door after voting to avoid him altogether.
I hope you thanked him being true to our country and what it stands for...
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