Posted on 11/03/2008 8:14:11 PM PST by Chet 99
Vanity: Message to the Forum on Election Eve
Dear Forum -
With the election finally upon us tomorrow, there are number of things to consider:
1. The national polls
These polls are all over the place, many outside the margin of error from one another. This is very unusual, as polls typically converge within a point of one another by election day. Regardless of the outcome, some polling firms will end up having been VERY WRONG.
Throughout the past weeks, myself and others have dissected these polls and found their ridiculous assumptions and oversampling of Democrats to be wanting, to say the very least. Now some of you say: Great, but the "polls are right", the last time there was a great polling failure was 1948, and things have mightily improved since then. Not so. In 1996, polls wildly overestimated Clinton's margin over Bob Dole. Even late into October, most polls were showing Clinton leading Dole by over 20 points. Some final polls were off as much as 10. People don't remember this because the polls correctly predicted a Clinton victory, so there was no Dewey Defeats Truman moment. Yet it reminds us that if a poll could be off by 10 points then, it could be off by 10 points now as well...
2. State polls
The final round of state battleground polls have been extremely encouraging. They are suggesting McCain is down by no more than 2 to 3% in the national popular vote. While it is said that state polls sometimes lag national results, that isn't the case here. These final polls are hot off the presses. The latest batch of Mason Dixon, SurveyUSA and Rasmussen polling show that McCain is either slightly ahead or within the margin of error in every single battleground, and even in one state not previously thought to be a battleground (Minnesota). Moreover, in many of these polls, 0bama has not hit 50%. Mason Dixon all but said that these undecideds are basically McCain voters.
This last batch of state polls may represent a surge which will fully realize itself on election day. These state polls also oversample Democrats, just as the national polls do.
The pundits have declared 0bama the certain winner. Yet, if these same pundits were right, it would be President Kerry running for re-election right now...
3. The American people
Perhaps we can also hope that the American people themselves will come through on election day. The silent majority who perhaps see CBS/ABC/Pew/etc. on their caller ID, and let the phone continue to ring, or who hang up rather than spend 30 minutes talking to a pollster or punching digits on their telephone for the robopolls. Or the people who say they're for 0bama (or undecided) because they're afraid to express their true opinion, given what the media/Obama campaign has done to others who have expressed opposition to That One.
4. Closing thought...
One other thing. If things do not go our way tomorrow, just remember who were are and who we are not. We are not Sore/Losermen. We are not the pathetic creatures who cried in the streets when Kerry conceded. Let that not be us. Do not say things that will be the source of endless delight and laughter on places like DUmmy Land. Just remember how it was the last time we went into the wilderness in '92. We did not weep, we did not wail. We did not cry unfair. We quietly seethed with purpose, retook our Congress and impeached Clinton. No matter what else is written about him, he'll always be known as an impeached rapist. We did it before and we can do it again.
Don't mistake the above as being defeatist after the first three paragraphs, but still, let's be prepared.
One hour ago:
Seattle Post Intelligencer
Redskins lead Steelers 6-0 after 1st quarter— there is hope.
WE impeached one black president, WE’ll impeach another one if we have to. nuff said. :-}
“Redskins lead Steelers 6-0 after 1st quarter— there is hope”
That jinx was broken in 2004.
Ignore the polls, kill your TV, and get out there and vote!
Get real. Obummer could start putting conservatives in “re-education camps” and a Democrat congress would NOT impeach the turd.
Let’s win this thing tomorrow!!
The big question is whether or not FR can keep up without getting too sluggish or worse........ hope it don’t vapor-lock on us. CAn you imagine trying to get thru election eve w/o FR?
If Mac wins, that’s great.
If Obama wins, I’ll remember that it took four years of Jimmy Carter to give us Reagan.
Either way, Palin (or some other conservative) in 2012.
It takes a lot to wake a sleeping giant. While I would not wish ill to befall us, maybe a good b*tch slap is what is needed to wake the silent majority from a slumber of indifference.
Just want to say I personally think you've done a lot of fine work on here lately. All the old polling news has been very helpful. The truth is, we just don't know what will happen tomorrow. We can only control so much of what happens.
You have given a lot of positive energy to this election, in tangible and useful ways. You've contributed a lot. I'm sure it is one of the best purposes of this forum.
So, FRiend, job well done. Jolly good. And Carry On!
h
Thanks
I would like to add in my 2 cents here:
We can expect one or more states to be called erroneously for Obama tomorrow if the past serves as any kind of example. In 1996, it was Georgia called early for Clinton (voted Dole), and in 2000 it was Florida called early for Gore even though the counts were close (Bush won it.) If states are "called" wrong, don't panic. Those in western states, call your friends and family and reassure them and make sure they still vote. Its hard to believe these states were called wrong by accident. It was done to suppress conservative voter turnout in the Mid-West & Western states. It will probably happen again.
We can expect McCain to win and for the next month to be filled with legal challenges and appeals to courts. These people are not likely to concede as statesmen should. (ref: Gore Vidal letter.)
I do believe McCain will win this thing. The youth vote isn't going to happen. If they do vote, it will be split, not in a block for Obama though he may have a slight majority. A lot of Democrats that answer polls will not show up tomorrow to vote. Republicans, on the other hand, have never been more fired up since 1980. True, African-Americans are going to vote probably 100% tomorrow, but that will not be enough to win when you have half the Democrats sitting at the house. Obama burned his bridge with the Hillary supporters, and that killed his chances before America discovered what a socialist he is.
I think your post about what we do if we lose is right on. We survived eight long years of Clinton rule, we can make it through four with Obama. Like Clinton, I would expect a GOP retake of Congress during his term. This time, I think it will be more permanent because the country has finally woken up to realize Democrats just aren't liberals on social issues... Obama's people want to turn us into USSR II. If he wins, which I don't think is likely, his administration will be a disaster politically for DNC. An article has already been written about "backlash." Oh yeah, theres going to be tons of it. Democrats should PRAY that Obama loses tomorrow.
Final poll ping of 2008 (maybe)
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