Posted on 11/03/2008 7:46:40 PM PST by savvyguy
British Journalist, Simon Jenkins, Sunday Times, wrote today, "Obama Stock Is Overpriced; Sell, Sell"
I will share several reasons/factors why McCain will likely win. I first wrote about 2 months ago ,”10 reasons why I believe McCain will win .” Then I lost faith, but regained it recently.
Dick Morris wrote that if Obama wasn’t getting 50% in the final polls, it could spell trouble, because the undecided will break heavily for McCain. Old rule in politics that an incumbent candidate is always in danger when he dips under 50 percent, even if he is leading his opponent in the polls. They could break at rates as high as 4 to 1.
Every single state has more than 3% undecided, up to 9%. If Obama hasn’t convinced those voters by now, most will go with McCain. The Mason-Dixon in Virginia showed that 11% of whites are undecided , above average in last days.
My prediction is 281 electoral votes for McCain, 257 for Obama. Obama will lead in popular votes by around 2%. Forward this to or people, to encourage them to vote.
Even AP Warns that he Could Win Electoral College. In 2000, Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But Bush won 271 to 266.
My reasons I see hope:
1. Those stubborn conservatives who vowed they will NEVER vote for Mccain are coming home. First Dr. Dobson and Mike Savage, there will be more last minute.
2. There’s real fear out there for a Socialist State! People buying guns. Gun owners will lopsidedly vote McCain-Palin!
3. Christian block of voters has come home to McCain. Obama’s mission there has failed miserably! I was worried. The Catholic vote is strong this year & will tilt Ohio & battleground States.
(continue below)
We will win. Check it out ...
0) NEW!!! “Coalgate” http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123235/posts
1) ACORN has been stuffing the Democratic registration lists for years now, especially this year. Pollsters use these stuffed registered-voter lists to poll real people, so if the lists read 60%D, 40%R, the pollster will poll 60 Ds for every 40 Rs. If every D were for Obama and every R were for McCain, Obama ought to be ahead by 20 points in the polls He’s not! Ergo, McCain is actually ahead and doesn’t know it!
2) The press (AP, MSNBC, NYT) is starting to turn on Obama. They see what’s happening in the early returns. Please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119327/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119299/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123219/posts
3) If you have not considered that Democratic Presidential campaigns would try to browbeat you into thinking that a Democrat win was inevitable, and that you should side with “history,” and vote with everyone, please read http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2117212/posts
4) According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2118129/posts, McCain is polling evenly in early voting exit polls in a county that has 28% more Democrats. Repeat: DEMOCRATS ARE VOTING McPALIN!!!
5) Oh yeah, the “Joe the Plumber” video isn’t the only time Obama has let fly with his “spread the wealth” worldview. He blabbed about it profusely in 2001 http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2116921/posts
6) “Polls” that show Obama ahead tell a different story when internals are studied. Please see http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/14/an-eeyore-free-zone for a primer on how polls are cooked. UPDATE: Rasmussen saying McCain ahead in Florida and Ohio.
And now, a brief history lesson of ACTUAL ELECTION RESULTS:
1980: Reagan 50.75%, Carter 41%, (+9.75 Reagan) Reagan won 45 states.
1984: Regan 58.77%, Mondale 40.56% (+18.21 Regan) Reagan won 49 states.
1988: Bush 53.37%, Dukakis 45.65% (+7.72 Bush) Bush won 42 states.
1992: Clinton 43.01%, Bush 37.45%, Perot 18.91% (+5.66% Clinton) Clinton won 30 states.
1996: Clinton 49.23%, Dole 40.72%, Perot 8.40% (+8.49% Clinton) Clinton won 31 states.
2000: Bush 47.87%, Gore 48.38% (Gore +0.49%) Bush won 30 states.
2004: Bush 50.73%, Kerry 48.27% (Bush +2.46%) Bush won 31 states.
NO WAY was Obama ever up 14 points! He won’t even break 49%.
7) Hillary and Bill are not acting like they want Obama to win, since she wants to run again in 2012, despite what she alludes to. Notice Hillary has not gotten Berg to cut it out with his “birth certificate” lawsuit.
8) “Hussein” being Obama’s middle name is still news to most people.
9) A picture of Obama dressed as a Muslim (there are at least three) is still worth 1000 words (3000 in this case). Man your email station! Post bills!
10) The PUMAs who know the hows and whys of Hillary getting cheated, will vote Palin, and will pull others. Check out http://www.hillaryclintonforum.net/discussion/showthread.php?t=33711&page=3 and http://democrats-against-obama.org. Freeper lonestar67 says, “Surveys have suggested that as many as 20-30% of Democrats may vote for McCain based on the rejection of Hillary. If even fractions of these claims are true, Obama would be hard pressed to win the election— especially in key states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
11) “[Bitter Clingers] to [Religion and Guns]”, will vote McCain, so much so that 22K of the 45K in Grand Junction, Colorado came out to see her http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110920/posts.
12) The Palins ARE America and the conservative base. America and the conservative base will vote accordingly. According to http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2106836/posts parts of the country that were not fired up about the election, are working for Palin. She draws THOUSANDS at every campaign stop.
13) The NRA has “8 figures” of ads to unload in “swing” states
14) At one point, Obama was only 5 points up in New York! New York!
15) The Democrats were talking about Democratic consultants freaking out over Obama mis-managing his campaign before they settled into poll alteration.
16) The Enemedia is already spreading the meme that if Obama loses, it “is racism”. They see the tea leaves ...
17) The Media was calling the election for Kerry ELECTION MORNING in 2004, and Carter and Reagan polled evenly on election day! SOMEONE is trying to buffalo us with these polls! For more on the history of polls leaning Democrat, please see http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2106669/posts Both Zogby and Mike McCurry predicted a Kerry win.
18) McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga, ... more at http://www.barackbook.com
19) Plenty of long-time Democratic voters are http://thehill.com/dick-morris/undecideds-should-break-for-mccain-2008-10-28.html Long time Democrat votesrs are unimpressed with Obama, and will not vote for him. Two midwestern transplants have volunteered to me that they know lifelong Democrats who WILL NOT vote for Obama. The 1st hand accounts here on Free Republic about lack of enthusiasm for Obama relative to Kerry similarly bodes poorly for Obama.
20) Obama has only 75% of the Jewish vote last I checked, just like Kerry (comfortable R win). Gore got 90% (close R win). Please see http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_and_the_jewish_vote.php and http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08293/921167-470.stm
21) The Christian base that re-elected Bush in 2004, knows Sarah is more than a Sunday Christian, and is praying for her.
22) McCain opened 50 offices in California. It’s in play! It should be the bluest of the blue, and it is not.
23) Google “Bradley Effect”. Obama is getting poll votes he’ll never get on election day. PUMAs have also agreed to lie to pollsters about supporting Obama, and are encouraging others to do so.
24) Operation Chaos resulted in an overlarge quantity of Democrat registrations that will never ever vote Democratic.
25) Obama’s “spread the wealth” line to Joe the Plumber will cost him undecideds not ready to etch the current class structure in stone.
26) The Enemedia overstating Obama’s popularity will cut two ways. The lazy, and the youth, (core Democrat constituencies) will not brave traffic and lines to vote on election day, since they were lied to by the KGBMedia to believe that Obama has a gigantic lead. In fact, if I worked for the GOP, I’d make sure free beer/music parties were being held outside of every major blue city before/on election day. They’re called “raves”.
27) There is a group playing Jeremiah Wrights ads. Read more about it http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2108462/posts, and to donate visit https://www.completecampaigns.com/FR/contribute.asp?campaignid=OCDBPac.
28) The Obama crew already knows they’re going to lose. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110803/posts and http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2103037/posts
29) Kerry won the Nickelodeon kids vote 57/43, and Obama won it 51/49! If you don’t think kids vote like their parents, then you got another thing coming! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2110843/posts
30) Freeper lonestar67 says, “... the misogynist treatment of Palin by the media elite has provided additional elements to the coming silent backlash— especially among women.”
31) Three people over 50 (white male and two Mexican women), on two occasions, on October 25th, asked me if I know about Obama not being a citizen. My Dad knows, and he emailed all his friends also. Point being, EVERYBODY KNOWS that Obama ain’t benevolently and humbly forthcoming with his birth certificate, and thus something fishy is afoot in Camelot.
32) Obama will get 1% less Evangelical votes than Kerry did. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-religion/2123218/posts
33) Polls are meant by the Enemedia, to SHAPE public opinion, not to accurately report it. Get your news here! Stop torturing yourself! We bring the liberal media lies here, and we dissect them through the lenses of Christianity and Conservatism.
Make sure you ...
1) campaign and/or pray and/or donate
2) vote
3) wear the gracious smile of a victor
Fellow Freepers, please feel free to post this list every time you see a Freeper or anyone feeling down, anywhere. No need to credit me or ping or write me.
Let me know if you have any other under-reported reasons for the coming McCain/Palin win.
Please tell me if you think there are mistakes.
Hey Obama supporters!! Taxes kill businesses, which kills jobs, which kills people.
Dugg!
Reading page A12 of Canada's National Post, titled "Americans cannot vote for President" (Contributor Jo Biddle). quoting one Chris Dreibelbis of the Reform Institue. It does not make clear this is his statement.
"The electoral college was established by the founding fathers and has been around in some form since the early 1800's when vast distances and lack of communications meant organizing and counting a national popular vote posed immense hurdles.
"Mr Dreibelbis then says that "it would simplify the process and ensure there would be a clear winner". I am glad that there is this information.
I had fondly hoped that the founding fathers had a fear of a demagogue. Such a man would sway the masses. He would make impossible promises. He would play one group off against the other. Each group rather than lose their particular area of affluence, would pervert the democratic process. I had fondly hoped that after such a man gained power-, using lies and subversive unpatriotic emissaries, he would not be allowed to gain power again.
Turns out I was wrong- pity.
Newbies, Retreads and Zombie-Woofs
and their blessed vanities
when the mods wake up from their Rip Van Winkleness over vanities will be most welcome
nothing personal to you SG but dang every header I see that looks encouraging it’s ALWAYS A GD VANITY!
Jews are the world’s smartest race but their POTUS vote is only crucial maybe in South Florida.
Mac will not get a majority Jewish vote....but he will do better than anyone since 1980
everywhere else they hang is lib lalaland already with goyim kooks to boot
what do FR’s chosen say?
I live and work in Hudson County , a Democrat run stronghold in NJ. I was in the company a of a few political hacks recently who were saying that now that Klinton was out of the race they were being forced to vote McCain because even these Dem hacks couldn’t in good conscious vote for Obama. These guys would elect a cardboard cut out if it had a (D) next to it’s name and they told me they wouldn’t vote Obama.
My mayor at a Democratic Club affair last week danced around supporting “his” Dem candidate and more or less said he’d like to feel we were all family on the same page ( meaning all Dems) but this election is an extraordinary circumstance and suggested his fellow Dems “think about who they elect” Anyone who knows NJ politics would tell you this is a MAJOR turn around for a Dem leader to not kiss the ass of a Dem presidential candidate.
PS I was not at a Dem CLUB affair, my girlfriend works for the town here and is “obligated “ to buy a ticket and show up or put her job on the line by not doing so .Ahh yes , the Democratic Party ,the party of the people !
PSS..I’m still not as optimistic as others here about tomorrows outcome.Wish I was but I don’t see it .
Good Bye America , it was nice knowing ya !
McCain has only started to play the Ayers card. McCain has not yet played the Tony Rezko, Odinga....
Kind of late for that huh ?
Wow! You are a professor! I like these! Learn a couple of new things, thanks!
Since I added that to the list, “Coalgate” has taken top billing, and for excellent reason.
Obama decimating the coal industry for “the environment” should tank the rest of the non kool-aid undecideds to McCain.
It also should shake whatever union vote hasn’t already fled the metrosexual Dem candidates.
Nevertheless, the questionable character of Obama will make many rounds of the internet.
Dugg!
Thanks for helping out!
Dugg!
Maybe Mccain will win both votes.
pundits began to wonder why McCain Campaign kept coming to Pennsylvania. They were surprised to find that Kerry and Gore carried the state on razor thin margins. How could pundits ignore PA so much? PA has more in common with Ohio who, politically, Ohio runs about five points to the right of Pennsylvania.
Keep an eye on Iowa,he should have locked at this time, Well, Obama is back in Iowa which means he is toast! If it is competitive in Iowa ( was very competitive in 2004), that means that McCain is running as well as Bush or better!
How did McCain get Obama to campaign in blue states in these final days?
It is electorally impossible for Obama to become president without winning Ohio and Pennsylvania. I believe Mccain will win both OH & PA!
a Penn team winning is probably a good luck charm for McCain....first the Phillies and now the Steelers...
Dugg!
I know that is a big step for many people. I didn’t grow up around guns, and had never fired one until basic training. When I was stationed in Alaska I learned to get used to them. The key, I think, is selecting an appropriate gun and then taking time to get familiar with it and shoot it. Besides, target shooting is fun.
Yet another newbie with inside stuff for all of us.
I still feel about the same about my forecast.
Dick Morris now said,”In a national race that is tied, the Republican should be carrying Kentucky by 9 points. ...”
Anyone know what’s current % in Kentucky?
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