Posted on 11/03/2008 3:24:45 PM PST by Zakeet
While interesting, Obama no doubt didn’t spend much money on GOTV in Texas, so it is hard to translate these results into a battleground state.
I have NEVER so many adverts before in Texas. Granted, I don't have a TV, but I visit folks that do. I have seen more political adverts this season than ever before. Especially demoncratic presidential adverts.
/johnny
I voted early with my wife (both Mccain Palin) in Harris County. If you vote in the Dem primary in Texas do they automatically change your registration — I was registered Republican, wondering if they changed my registration?
Bizarre.
Has anyone seen any recent early voting data from Florida or any other battleground states? I saw one LA Times Bloomberg poll taken in Florida late last week that showed McCain up by 3 points over Obama, 49-46, but haven’t seen anything more recent than that.
Cool. Less hassle when this is over.
If you voted for Hillary in the primary, I think they count you as a statistical Dem till the end of the year.
That may well be one factor that has screwed up national polls this year, if pollsters weighted their polls based on how many voted in each party’s primary.
Since McCain sewed things up quickly, there were massive numbers of people who voted in the Democratic primaries who might not have if there had been competitive races in the GOP primaries.
Thus, a presumption on the part of pollsters that all those extra voters were indeed Democrats may have seriously skewed their numbers.
Important Question: Does this study subdivide by precints within counties... that might give us even better info as different parts of counties lean Democrat/Republican?
Your numbers don’t tell the story for this year or for 2005. In 2005 general election, Republicans lost every office on the ballot in Dallas County, including voting in the majority for the Democrat gubernatorial candidate. In 2004, in Dallas County,Bush only received 10,000 more votes than Kerry. Expect Dallas County to go for Obama; Harris County may go for Obama, too. Republicans are going to lose state house and senate seats. I wish this outcome would not happen, but I think it will based on 2005 numbers.
This is hugely important. Although Texas will not go dem by a long shot, we need to "run up the score" here so as to counterbalance states like California and NY. Obama wants to claim a popular vote win nationwide. If he wins the popular vote and loses the electoral college by two votes, who knows what kind of pressure could be brought on electors in December? Particularly if there has been "blood in the streets" as some have intimated. Add in recount chaos as in 2000, and we've got a combustible situation on our hands.
The best thing is to win both popular and electoral votes and avoid trouble. VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!!!
Why? Don't know. Maybe we want our vote to count. If we don't vote, we have no say in the future.
People do not register as members of a party in Texas. The way it works is that anyone who votes in the March Republican Primary during an even year is a member of the Republican Party for the next two years [unless you file something to leave the party], and the same for the Demo Party.
Yep, that's why I'm registered as an independent so I could participate in the Democratic Primary.
Houston here. I was born in Arkansas but got to Texas as fast as I could.
retsignguy...thank you. Seems a lot of people feel like they have to say that. Maybe they really feel it. I don’t.
I and my wife switched and didn’t switch back. 2 Dems(Chaos Not Real) for McCain/Palin
Zakeet, I think I only have one nit to pick - and that is that assumption that because Harris County went for Bush in 04, that increased turnout in 08 means Harris county looks good for McCain. I’m not so sure. The word on the street is that the vast majority of newly registered voters in Harris county are black and hispanic, and likely to vote for Obama.
As a long-time Texas resident, my evidence is only anecdotal, but I have some friends who volunteer at precincts in Harris County and they are saying don’t be surprised if it turns purple if not outright blue.
I hate being a nattering nay-bob of negativity, so I will say that for the other counties, I agree with your analysis....the early voting numbers in counties that went for Bush in 04 seem encouraging.
That is what the MSM wont talk about. The PUMA factor, lets say 10%. Plus Op. Chaos, lets say 2% and the moderate democrats, lets say 5%, that is a modest 17% of the voting electorate. Plus the gains in Catholic and Jewish voting blocks, say 5% each, and you are talking about hundreds of thouusands of votes, not to mention, increases in men overall. (not sure about women) but I do not see how Obi is even in this thing except for the fact that the MSM and the Pollsters are working to make it so.
Republican senator John Cornyn had a well financed and determined challenger - who is evidently getting his clock cleaned.
FYI: Fort Bend county is where Sugar Land is located - Delay's district.
Me, too!
Another biggie that makes me proud is-- with ZERO state income tax we have a stable housing market and $11 Billion state surplus.
WE HAVE NO DEMOCRATS ELECTED TO STATE WIDE OFFICES IN TEXAS AND WE ARE DOING VERY WELL, THANK YOU!
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