Posted on 11/03/2008 3:24:45 PM PST by Zakeet
All of the MSM/Liberal University poll heavily oversample Democratic voters on the premise Democrats are so enthused over Obama they will turnout in record numbers, whereas Republicans are so discouraged and/or disgusted with Bush/McCain they will not vote in similar proportions. This is a critical assumption. If it is not correct, the polls will significantly overstate Mr. Obama's expected vote totals.
Early voting data released by the Texas Secretary of State for the 15 counties with the largest population shows the MSM polling assumption is dead WRONG. In fact, the opposite of what should have happened under the MSM scenario took place. A larger percentage of the people in traditionally Republican counties voted than persons in traditional Democratic counties, AND the increase in the percentage of early voters was greatest for the so-called red counties.
Consider the following:
This is likely due to in part to Hurricane Ike (people voting when they can as they are still cleaning up after the storm). The turmoil in the energy market also probably plays significant role oil prices are falling and the Democrats are responsible for obstructing domestic oil exploration. The energy industry is a huge part of the Houston economy.
A summary of the data is posted in the comments below. The raw data can be obtained from the Office of the Texas Secretary of State at the following links:
2004 Early Voting
Of course, Texas isn't considered a swing state in this election, and we don't know for sure how the votes will break until they are counted tomorrow night, BUT Texas is the second largest state in terms of population and we do have our share of retirees, minorities and other groups considered key voting blocks.
Enjoy.
County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
---|---|---|---|
Travis | 584,949 | 217,428 | 37% |
El Paso | 371,856 | 96,420 | 26% |
Hidalgo | 269,811 | 61,970 | 23% |
County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas | 1,231,291 | 346,729 | 28% |
Harris | 1,937,072 | 436,896 | 23% |
Bexar | 908,466 | 274,786 | 30% |
Nueces | 201,707 | 53,031 | 26% |
Fort Bend | 254,364 | 83,965 | 33% |
Galveston | 185,911 | 64,714 | 35% |
County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
---|---|---|---|
Tarrant | 918,656 | 305,666 | 33% |
Williamson | 200,344 | 77,142 | 39% |
Denton | 321,700 | 116,632 | 36% |
Collin | 369,412 | 153,566 | 42% |
Montgomery | 214,098 | 70,023 | 33% |
County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
---|---|---|---|
Travis | 609,180 | 298,873 | 49% |
El Paso | 388,643 | 114,765 | 30% |
Hidalgo | 305,206 | 87,366 | 29% |
County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas | 1,208,151 | 508,070 | 42% |
Harris | 1,940,356 | 733,758 | 38% |
Bexar | 930,943 | 400,638 | 43% |
Nueces | 198,938 | 67,331 | 34% |
Fort Bend | 299,002 | 155,912 | 52% |
Galveston | 189,042 | 77,312 | 41% |
County | Reg Voters | Early Voters | % Early Vote |
---|---|---|---|
Tarrant | 959,499 | 459,842 | 48% |
Williamson | 231,977 | 112,239 | 48% |
Denton | 358,525 | 174,276 | 49% |
Collin | 424,528 | 219,694 | 52% |
Montgomery | 241,927 | 104,898 | 43% |
County | Increased EV | % Increase |
---|---|---|
Travis | 81,445 | 37%> |
El Paso | 18,345 | 19% |
Hidalgo | 25,576 | 41% |
County | Increased EV | % Increase |
---|---|---|
Dallas | 161,314 | 47% |
Harris | 296,862 | 68% |
Bexar | 125,852 | 46% |
Nueces | 14,300 | 27% |
Fort Bend | 71,947 | 86% |
Galveston | 12,598 | 19% |
County | Increased EV | % Increase |
---|---|---|
Tarrant | 154,176 | 50% |
Williamson | 35,187 | 46% |
Denton | 57,644 | 49% |
Collin | 66,128 | 43% |
Montgomery | 34,875 | 50% |
County | Increased RV | % Increase |
---|---|---|
Travis | 24,231 | 4% |
El Paso | 16,787 | 5% |
Hidalgo | 35,395 | 13% |
County | Increased RV | % Increase |
---|---|---|
Dallas | -23,140 | -2% |
Harris | 3,284 | 0% |
Bexar | 22,477 | 2% |
Nueces | -2,769 | -1% |
Fort Bend | 44,638 | 18% |
Galveston | 3,131 | 2% |
County | Increased RV | % Increase |
---|---|---|
Tarrant | 40,843 | 4% |
Williamson | 31,633 | 16% |
Denton | 36,825 | 11% |
Collin | 55,116 | 15% |
Montgomery | 27,829 | 13% |
County | Bush | Kerry | % Bush |
---|---|---|---|
Travis | 147,885 | 197,235 | 43% |
El Paso | 73,261 | 95,142 | 44% |
Hidalgo | 50,931 | 62,369 | 45% |
County | Bush | Kerry | % Bush |
---|---|---|---|
Dallas | 346,246 | 336,641 | 51% |
Harris | 584,723 | 475,865 | 55% |
Bexar | 260,698 | 210,976 | 55% |
Nueces | 59,359 | 44,439 | 57% |
Fort Bend | 93,625 | 68,722 | 58% |
Galveston | 61,290 | 43,919 | 58% |
County | Bush | Kerry | % Bush |
---|---|---|---|
Tarrant | 349,462 | 207,286 | 63% |
Williamson | 83,284 | 43,117 | 66% |
Denton | 140,891 | 59,346 | 70% |
Collin | 174,435 | 68,935 | 72% |
Montgomery | 104,654 | 28,628 | 79% |
Travis Austin
El Paso El Paso
Hidalgo McAllen (Lower Rio Grande Valley)
Dallas Dallas
Harris Houston
Bexar San Antonio
Nueces Corpus Christi
Fort Bend West Houston
Galveston Galveston
Tarrant Fort Worth
Williamson Round Rock (North of Austin)
Denton Denton (North of Dallas)
Collin NE of Dallas
Montgomery North of Houston
Florida showing the same. Now Texas. A trend is starting and will continue. Pumas crossing over and voting McCain.
The only question might be that, knowing that Osama never had a chance of carrying Texas, did his campaign put the same effort into the GOTV effort that they might put out in competitive states?
What gives me hope is that Texas is NOT a swing state yet conservatives turned out in huge numbers. Where I voted I promise you there were few obama voters in line.
Been out of town on business for ten days.....lost touch with FR...I did not know Florida early polling exit data showing good for McCain....that it excellent.
The Florida results would be more compelling to me since this is a battleground. As for Texas, tough to rally when you feel your vote might not make an impact. Still, overall impressive results for Texas
I don’t mind the good news a bit believe me. I’m still enraged by the attempt to suppress military votes in VA GRRRRR! To Arms! Fight!
Plus the Operation Chaos voters who were GOP but registered RAT for the primaries and didn’t switch back. I’ll be watching my county specifically since it is heavy GOP, but i leterally taked to a ton of people who switched parties to participate in operation chaos.
Goodness no. Not much of anything. I get a robocall occasionally, but only from congressional candidates. It would be a waste of resources.
See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up?
See my post #4. Why did all these conservatives turn out when McCain has the state sewed up? I think obama is the one person in the world who stirred up the conservative base more than Hillary would have.
Early voting was certainly up in my county, Coryell, which is about an hour north of Austin and includes a portion of Fort Hood. I voted on the 20th, the first day of early voting.
That’s what I thought. However, I suppose looking at it another way, one could say it was extremely good news with as many Republicans voting without the need to do so to carry the state.
In Texas, you don’t even register with a party. You just choose the primary you want to vote in. So there’s no “switching back” to be done.
(Voting in one party’s primary does, however, preclude voting in the other party’s runoff if there is one.)
I am so blessed to live in Texas where rugged individualism is paramount to government handouts. Texas has been known as a low tax, low services state.
However, with the influx of millions of illegals, I fear that we may eventually go blue. When that happens America will be lost. Until then....GOD BLESS TEXAS!
Local, judicial, and congressional races.
I’ll be voting early in Texas - 7:00 a.m tomorrow morning.
Yeah. Tough to know what to make out of this.
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