[nmh]

Early Voting Statistics as of 11/03/08

Number of ballots voted in person: 1,778,317

Number of mail-in ballots returned:

242,522 Total Number of ballots cast: 2,020,839

Turn out Demographics:

Black Female 442,843

Black Male 262,360

White Female 677,667

White Male 542,449

Asian Female 6,889

Asia Male 5,128

Hispanic Female 8,625

Hispanic Male 6,289

Native American Female 160

Native American Male 137

Other 68,292 Total 2,020,839

Top 5 Counties in turn out:

1. Dekalb: 178,140

2. Fulton: 168,443

3. Cobb: 144,015

4. Gwinnett: 107,938

5. Henry: 69,064

What a pity that we have to define people by RACE ... .

Anyway, I can read it better when listed like this.

So what PARTY Is winning?

[jwalsh07]

So what PARTY Is winning?

LOL.

[Rumierules]

Blacks constitute 35% of all voters so far. I’d imagine this is considerably greater than blacks representation of the overall population in Georgia.

[Brookhaven]

DeKalb - Heavy Democratic.

Fulton - Split. Southern half is city of Atlanta, heavy Democrat. Nothern part is heavier Republican.

Cobb - This would be a more “Georgia/Southern Democrat” county. I suspect it will be mostly Republican in the presidential election, but will have a large percentage of Democrats.

Gwinnett - Heavily Republican (John Linder district.)

Henry - Not really sure, has elected a Republican congressman, but south of Atlanta has been more Democratic historically.

[Blood of Tyrants]

Here is a little number crunching:

Georgia’s population is roughly 8.2 million. Black population is 2.35 million or 28.7% of the total, about 35% are children ineligible to vote. That leaves about 1.5 million blacks. About 37% have already voted and probably 35% are ineligible to vote because of criminal records (not racism, just simple facts), of the remaining 30%, I would bet that less than half will vote. We can safely assume that they voted for Obama in overwhelming numbers. So roughly 95% of the 55% of blacks leaves a total of about 800,000 Obama votes. Obama has already seen most of his black support in Georgia.

Now if we assume that 55% of non blacks also vote, we get 3 million other votes for a total of about 4 million votes. I would bet that McCain pulls 65% of this group or about 2 million votes.

The total is McCain 2.4 million, Obama 1.85 million.

[kesg]

Hmm....looks right up my alley.

Total black vote: 35% (2004 total: 25%)

Total white vote: 60.4 (2004 total: 70%)

Total hispanic vote: 0.7% (2004 total: 4%)

Total other vote: 3.9% (2004 total: 2%)

How these same five counties voted in 2004:

Dekalb: Kerry 73-26
276,139 votes cast in 2004

Fulton: Kerry 59-40
336,024 votes cast in 2004

Cobb: Bush 62-37
279,473 votes cast in 2004

Gwinnett: Bush 66-33
242,153 votes cast in 2004

Henry: Bush 67-33
64,193 votes cast in 2004

If you assume that these five counties will vote at roughly these percentages in 2008 early voting, here is what I come up with:

Dekalb: Obama 130,042, McCain 48,098

Fulton: Obama 99,381, McCain 69,062

Cobb: Obama 53,285, McCain 90,729

Gwinnett: Obama 35,620, McCain 72,318

Henry: Obama 22,791, McCain 46,273

When you add all these numbers up, I get:

Obama 341,119 51.1%
McCain 326,480 48.9%

To put this in context, Bush won the state by about 550,000 votes (58-41). But here is how Bush and Kerry did against each other in these five counties in 2004:

Kerry 606,982 51.0%
Bush 584,613 49.0%

Even if you assume that Obama is winning the early vote by 60-40 rather than 51-49, this would net him only 112,000 additional votes (give or take) — still far short of the 550,000 he needs to make up Kerry’s deficit from 2004. And these five counties (one or more of which includes Atlanta, where many Georgia black voters live) are far more Democratic than the rest of Georgia.

I would stop worrying about Georgia. McCain will win the state handily.