Latest 3 Florida polls cut Obama's lead from +4.1 to +1.8 but EV exit polls are bizzare

Real Clear Politics/FlAttorney et. al. ^ | November 3, 2008 | Staff/FlA

[flattorney]

11.03.08-15:30: All polls are well within the margin of error and undecided voters. The +1.8 is the lowest lead Obama has held since McCain’s polling numbers went negative after the economic collaspe. - FlA

FOX News/Rasmussen: 11/02 - 11/02 McCain +1

Reuters/Zogby: 10/30 - 11/02 Obama +2

Quinnipiac: 10/27 - 11/02 Obama +2

11.03.08-10:00: In all battleground states McCain is now within the margin of error and undecided voters +/-. RCP had a big shift to undecided voters, from NObama, in their EC projection this morning. The Florida early voting exit public polls are dramatically different, +Obama, than our internal FL GOP PAC’s polls. I/we heavily discount them. The Quinnipiac polls report is very interesting as there is a dramatic difference between their pre and post-voting polls. McCain’s midnight Miami rally this morning was fantastic. – FlA

FlAttorney's FR "Straight Talk": 2008 Presidential Election Updated 24/7

[flattorney]

Here is the Quinnipiac Florida Exit Poll information

Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot. Among all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 - 45 percent and women back Obama 49 - 43 percent. White voters go Republican 52 - 40 percent, as do evangelical Christians 71 - 23 percent, and Catholics 55 - 38 percent. Jews back Obama 69 - 26 percent. Independent voters back Obama 49 - 39 percent. By a 52 - 41 percent margin, Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, compared to 56 - 38 percent for McCain. Gov. Palin gets a 47 - 42 percent favorability. Sen. Joe Biden, the Democratic running mate, gets a 50 - 35 percent favorability.

The economy is the most important election issue, 54 percent of Florida voters say. Obama would be more effective than McCain working with Congress on the economic crisis, voters say 49 - 43 percent. Criticism that McCain is too closely tied to President Bush is more harmful than criticism of his selection of Palin, voters say 58 - 27 percent, with 11 percent who say neither is harmful. Criticism of Obama as too liberal is more harmful than criticism that he is too inexperienced, voters say 40 - 36 percent, with 18 percent saying neither is harmful.

"The gender gap is what is keeping Sen. Obama slightly ahead in Florida. He is winning women by barely more than Sen. McCain is winning men. One potentially favorable omen for Sen. McCain's potential to pull ahead is that Florida voters view him a tad more favorably and a little bit less unfavorably than they do Sen. Obama," Brown said. ## http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1225

TAB

[mrsmith]

Any indication the exit polling wasn’t only done in urban districts?

[Shermy]

“Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot.”

They counted absentees too?

It’s bunk. Democrats always drive their elections with poll narratives, stories about polls to create momentum.

But in the end, the big pollsters have to sell themselves so the last poll results, the only ones remembered later, will be closer to reality.

As for Exit polls, they are a joke. Specifically hired to mislead. They have no downside to lying.

[jstolzen]

Oh, noes! We’re dooooomed! Dooooomed, I tell ya!

The Quinnipac one killed me. What a crock of..

Good advice for tomorrow: ignore the “exit” polls. Turn off the TV, and stay tuned to FR for the “real” news.

[Rumierules]

One thing that is hard to guage is this relatively new early voting thing.

In 2004, Jacksonville as a whole voted for Bush over Kerry 58 to 42%. But I researched this very interesting statistic — in 2004, Kerry slaughtered Bush in Jacksonville in early voting, 57% to 43%. (This figure does not appear to include absentee ballots, which were likely favorable to Bush) So, a Kerry early vote lead of 14% turned into an overall loss of 16% or a 30% swing all in all.

As of Saturday, Dems led Republicans in early voting (I am excluding absentee votes so we are comparing apples to apples) by a 52 to 30% margin. If McCain supporters state-wide are like Bush supporters were in Jacksonville in 2004, they are not early voters. They are election day voters and, to a lesser extent, absentee voters. If Jacksonville voters turned a significant early voting deficit into a significant election day win, it seems reasonable to conclude that McCain voters can do the same.

[mojito]

People are telling the exit pollsters what they want to hear: That they voted for the One.

Exit polls were bunk in 2004, and they'll be worse in 2008 because people have more reasons to lie.

[ZULU]

Women helped “stick us” with John Kennedy and Bill Clinton and here we go again.

Next time around Republicans should run Tom Selleck and Sarah Palin to cover all bases.

[truthluva]

Conservatives view their vote as a personal and private matter. I doubt the majority of conservatives participate in the exit polling.

[peace with honor]

where’s chicken little in all this???

[Baladas]

Odd, they say nothing about the racial breakdown of all these little subgroups - where are the black and Hispanic percentages? I know that Florida was the one state in the union where Hispanics were supposed to be more for McCain, maybe they cancel each other out?

I din’t know. I just hope every Republican Floridian gets his or her ass to the polls tomorrow and stop this communist coup by ballot.

[jps098]

If Obama leads 51 to 38, are we to assume 11% couldn’t remember who they voted for? /Oh brother!

[jwalsh07]

Obama leads 51 - 38 percent among Florida voters who already have cast their ballot

11% voted present?

[GoSarah]

in 2004, Kerry slaughtered Bush in Jacksonville in early voting, 57% to 43%. (This figure does not appear to include absentee ballots, which were likely favorable to Bush)

It probably does include absentee ballots unless the pollster specifically asked to distinguish between in-person early voting and mail-in early voting.

[Greek]

This year, at least 10%+ more O voters are likely to answer an exit poller than a Mac supporter, so there is already a 55/45 bias built in....

[montag813]

Why on earth didn’t McCain run Obama-is-no-friend-of-Israel ads in FL?

[evangmlw]

Just spoke with my Cuban neighbors (husband & wife) in Tampa. She just became a US citizen and is voting McCain.I would say they are in their mid to late 40’s. He has been a US citizen for some time and is voting McCain. Leads me to wonder what other Cubans in Florida are thinking?

[Frantzie]

Early voting sites in Broward County are more urban and less Repub friendly. They usually pick central locations and often in minority neighborhoods. I say central because it is like a business district or satellite courthouse. I did early voting once and said I will go to my precinct in my neighborhood from now on on election day.

[1972BornFree]

I thought FLA Cubans usually leaned republican (because of the anti-Castro angle)? I just assumed it was in the bag with that demographic and the worry in FL is blacks, college students, and Jews being manipulated by their NY grandkids.

[Frantzie]

Here are three other data points I think depress FL early voting for Repubs - based on being in SE FL.

1. Many of the early polling locations are in more urban areas and minority areas.
2. The lines were too long - not worth it.
3. We have a heavy ballot this year with confusing amnedments. People see that and prefer to vote in their neighborhood.
4. Because this is a somewhat racially charged election - how many whites want to go to a central or more urban area to early vote versus voting in their neighborhood?
5. This is the first time in history an African man could become President which will boost early voting among AA. You think AA were fired up for Kerry? I think it has dropped off. On the flips side - how many Hillary Dems are fired up to vote for Obama?

I think it will be a zoo tomorrow. I have seen my well off neighbors on the rich side of the street put McCain signs up when they never put any signs up.

I also have talked to business owners and they all seem to have an “Obama list.” This is the cutbacks they will be making if Obama wins and these will be job cutbacks. They have calculated taxes and higher costs and are planning cuts. Obama does not care.

One other thing about Florida. Obama won 32% of the vote against Hillary. If the Repu base shows up with a few Dems then FL is safe.

Mr. Marston thinks we only need 98,000 PUMAs in FL out of 7 million voters.

http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=95&Itemid=119

[fortunecookie]

As for Exit polls, they are a joke. Specifically hired to mislead. They have no downside to lying.

Bttt.

The bizarre findings, and falling numbers, tell me Obama is slipping fast, but they have to keep the illusion he's still in it, so the folks who haven't voted for him yet will bother.