Turnout percentage was dead even in 2004, and in every Presidential race before that (back to 1984) it ranged from +2 to +4 for the Dems.
Do you know what the margin was in 1980? +15 for the Dems. Poll after poll showed the race as too close to call, yet Reagan won 51-41% and took over 40 states.
I remember those 1980 polls and couldn’t figure out why anyone would want four more years of Carter. Sure enough they didn’t!
Thanks for posting that!