Posted on 11/03/2008 6:36:27 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
With oversampling by Scott Raz, McCain and Obama are in a dead heat. At this point, national polls mean nothing. Zero could quite well win the popular vote, but lose the election a la Kerry. Look for tons of disputes, lawsuits, cries of disenfranchisement in the coming days. This election won’t be over until next week, I fear.
I still don’t like his having over 50 percent. That used to be the indicator of winning or not. I guess this year could have changed that, but that was ALWAYS the hint in every other year. Your oversampling is a good excuse to make me happy...hopfully it will be true.
I wish they would be called on the carpet for how many dems vs how many republicans they poll.
I don’t wanna buy it, in fact, I’d like to toss it in the trash after I stepped on it a million times.
Everybody must keep track of the final polls so that we can all have a good laugh on Tuesday night when the polsters are stuttering and stammering without a good reason for being so wrong!!!
The Over 50 isn’t the issue, it’s that McCain has always been either six or five behind Zero for weeks. I believe that Obama’s lead over McCain is quite anemic, and portends that he simply has never been able to close the deal.
The one interesting nugget in this story is that even with nearly 7% Dem oversampling Obama has a solid lead in states that only comprise 260 EVs.
The rest of the states are either leaning towards Obama, leaning towards McCain or tossups.
This is significant because if the final turnout is truly like 2004 or even 2006 then McCain sweeps those leaning states and the toss up states
It’s them wascally PUMA’s, lying to the pollsters!
Heh!
At least that’s what I keep telling myself. Heck, I’d lie to them, too!
“I still don’t like his having over 50 percent”
...that’s the whole reason for them to post 50%. To flip you out.
State by state polls matter. Mac has narrowed the gap and is leading in key states. The national polls with huge RAT overweighting are for propaganda purposes only...
Show up to vote and bring those that can’t get to the polls with you...GOTV
On the air yesterday, Rasmussen said that if you take out the leaners then there are 8% undecided.
Mac will win handily and it will all be over by Nov 5 except for the riots. The polls are garbage, complete and absolute garbage. The pollsters know it, we know it, the MSM knows it, and on Nov 5 everyone else will know it.
In other headlines....
Rassmussen Enters the Oganic Fertilizer Market...
Besides oversampling Democrats, don’t forget Rasmussen also includes “leaners.” These are undecided voters.
Don’t forget that because of the Electoral Process, a candidate can get well above 50% nationally and still lose. If you win California 51% or 99%, you’d still get the same # of Electoral Votes, same with NY or most any other state except ME and NE..........
It would seem unlikely so many different polls would come to similar conclusions and it not really be leaning that way.
If Obama does win easily and there are Democratic gains in both houses we are going to have to face the fact that America is not the place we thought we knew.
The choices are stark and in truth there's little excuse not to know enough truthful details to make an informed choice regardless of the MSM.
Day of judgment is nearly upon us - one way or the other.
I hope all these posts are archived somewhere. Because I believe the polls are beyond wrong, they are criminal in the way they mislead. After all is said and done tomorrow, we need to throw these oversampled, skewed results back in their faces and shred any legitimacy these bogus polling firms have in the future.
And on the outside chance Obama is elected, he will get the same treatment from me as the liberals gave George W. Bush. It will be the hardest, worst four years of his political life.
Nice try national pollsters, your careers are in jeopardy Nov 5. The national media shills thank you. Axelord’s check is in the mail....
Mac has the MO. GOTV
That is true...Thank God!!! I do think Obama will win the popular vote but lose the electoral. It will be a beautiful sight and Dems are going to be PISSED!!!! Couldn’t happen to better people.
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