[napscoordinator]

I still don’t like his having over 50 percent. That used to be the indicator of winning or not. I guess this year could have changed that, but that was ALWAYS the hint in every other year. Your oversampling is a good excuse to make me happy...hopfully it will be true.

[Galtoid]

The Over 50 isn’t the issue, it’s that McCain has always been either six or five behind Zero for weeks. I believe that Obama’s lead over McCain is quite anemic, and portends that he simply has never been able to close the deal.

[albie]

“I still don’t like his having over 50 percent”

...that’s the whole reason for them to post 50%. To flip you out.

[Red Badger]

Don’t forget that because of the Electoral Process, a candidate can get well above 50% nationally and still lose. If you win California 51% or 99%, you’d still get the same # of Electoral Votes, same with NY or most any other state except ME and NE..........

[utahagen]

I believe that many Democrats and Independents who will vote for McCain just are not going to admit this to pollsters, for fear of being called racists. This is an issue that could account for the six point spread.

[DRey]

"I still don’t like his having over 50 percent."

McCain would have over 50 percent if they were oversampling Republicans like they are oversampling Dems. The 50 marker is meaningless in these polls. It will only matter in the real one tomorrow, and Obama will NOT have over 50% tomorrow.

[PallMal]

Remember that 0bama underperforms in (I believe) every primary he ran in (with the extreme example being NH).

So you can subtract at least 3 percentage points, and he doesn't get 50% of the vote.

[managusta]

Remember:-

“Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large . Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process.”(The famous Zogby special sauce!)

“During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday .For the final few days of Election 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.9% Democratic, 33.4% Republican, and 26.7% unaffiliated.”