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Counting Your Chickens Before They Hatch
BC Politics ^ | November 02, 2008 | Dave Nalle

Posted on 11/02/2008 10:12:47 PM PST by Exton1

For a minute I thought it was next Sunday, because they were all talking about the election in the past tense, with questions like "when was it that John McCain lost this election?"

The discussion came down mostly to how much of a landslide the election is going to be for Obama, with no consideration of the possibility of any other outcome.

Apparently the media has entirely convinced itself that exit polls of early voting can accurately predict the overall outcome of the election, despite the fact that it has been definitively proven that people lie pathologically to exit pollsters, as was demonstrated in 2000 and 2004.

It is almost enough to raise the suspicion that they are engaging in psyops-style vote suppression and attempting to convince people not to vote because the outcome is predetermined.

One of the fundamental mistakes the punditocracy and the pollsters seems to be making is the assumption that high voter turnout means that lots more Democrats are voting and that independents are turning out to vote Democrat.

They seem to be overlooking the reality that Obama is a polarizing figure and his power to turn out voters may very well include the power to turn out a lot of voters who oppose him.

A second important mistake is the assumption that Obama has a strong appeal to the middle and working class. The predictions of the pollsters and pundits seem to give no consideration at all to the possibility that Obama may be losing a remarkable number of votes among the white middle class to whom the McCain message and Sarah Palin's union background and populist persona are very appealing.

The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed.

(Excerpt) Read more at blogcritics.org ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: mistake; obamamccain; vote
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To: Exton1

I think that the MSM will cry racism if McCain wins. But if Obama wins, you will hear them say how wonderful it is and this country will heal and we will all unite together as the Messiah promised. They will see this as a victory over conservatism and the Media will say that its time for the Republican party to become more moderate because being taken over by the right didn’t help them win an election. Hopefully this country will still be recognizable. Interesting that there is no one in the media complaining about how the hard left has taken over the democrat party.

One person at my work who is a Liberal Democrat said that he hopes that Obama puts Republicans in his cabinet if he wins because he said that the change he was talking about and he said that he was going to transcend politics and unite us and that if he didn’t then he was going to be a one-term president. Sadly, this person is close to retirement so I’m not sure if he’s going to be affected by the soaring unemployment that’s going to come. If Obama does win 2012 better not have another Bush decide to run. I have enough of the Bush’s. Bush was great on Judges and the War on Terror, but he has not been a conservative on much of the other issues.

I voted already for McCain/Palin and I hope that Americans decide to go with the known rather than the unknown. I live in CA and I have seen more McCain/Palin signs than Obama signs but I live in a conservative part of the state. Hope that means something!


21 posted on 11/02/2008 10:50:55 PM PST by ripcasc
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To: Norman Bates

LS mentioned some exit poll data showing Obama winning early voting in Florida by 7.5% The thing is, Kerry won early voting by 16% and lost Florida by 5%.


22 posted on 11/02/2008 10:53:17 PM PST by Mr. Silverback (*******It's not conservative to accept an inept Commander-in-Chief in a time of war. Back Mac.******)
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To: Dawgreg

Hate to tell you this but THOUSANDS have already gone to the polls here in Ohio. I had no idea until a couple weeks ago that you could vote early, unless it was by absentee vote. They are bussing them in, in droves here in Columbus, and even serving them pizza and bottled water. I posted a thread on it, and contacted my local GOP headquarters.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2123016/posts


23 posted on 11/02/2008 10:55:50 PM PST by Lisa_from Buckeye Country ("Al I ever really needed to know I learned on the basketball court."...Sarah.... and my daughter)
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To: Emperor Palpatine

24 posted on 11/02/2008 10:56:25 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Our nation is uncomfortably close to having B.O. We need to use a Republican roll on by 11/04.)
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To: Emperor Palpatine

BTW, I like it. Good one...


25 posted on 11/02/2008 10:56:43 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Our nation is uncomfortably close to having B.O. We need to use a Republican roll on by 11/04.)
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To: Exton1
Republicans think people are smart, while Democrats know people are stupid.

That alone explains the rise of Barack Hussein Obama.

The only question is, are people really this stupid? We will know the answer to that question in 48 hours. We all know people are uninformed, and the duplicity of the Media is obvious to those who are intellectually honest.

26 posted on 11/02/2008 11:01:59 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (Democracy, two wolves and one sheep deciding what's for dinner.)
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To: Exton1

I turned on msnbc for a laugh and huckabee was on AGAIN, left the room for a minute and returned to find my 8 year old was upset.

I asked what was wrong. He said Obama won the election.

off went msnbc.


27 posted on 11/02/2008 11:40:07 PM PST by proudtobeanamerican1 (God Bless Sarah, John, their families and the conservative voters)
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To: Exton1
The third mistake is the chronic Democratic assumption that voters are stupid and uninformed.

That's not a mistake - these are the type of voters the Democrats court. Voters who can't figure out how to mark a butterfly ballot for instance.....

28 posted on 11/02/2008 11:43:45 PM PST by Rummyfan (Iraq: it's not about Iraq anymore, it's about the USA!)
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country

> They are bussing them in, in droves here in Columbus, and even serving them pizza and bottled water.

Lisa, Lisa, Lisa... you don’t understand: “Stealing” the election is only wrong if the Republicans do it first.


29 posted on 11/03/2008 12:34:34 AM PST by DieHard the Hunter (Is mise an ceann-cinnidh. Cha ghéill mi do dhuine. Fàg am bealach.)
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To: snarkytart; Exton1
I believe this is happening. The media and the DC/NYC insiders love the idea of Obama so much, they refuse to step back and look at reality.

I believe it also serves their objective towards justifying leftist rioting that will inevitably occur should "the one" lose the election.

30 posted on 11/03/2008 2:52:06 AM PST by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: T Lady

The Pied Piper image dead on. With his trailing ‘Rats. . .


31 posted on 11/03/2008 4:41:47 AM PST by doberville
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To: Lisa_from Buckeye Country

What I meant was those who prefer to wait until voting day to vote. That’s so typical what’s happening with the busing and “favors”, reminds me of Clintoon goin’ down to Nawlins and pull Mary Landreiu’s bacon outta the fire a few years ago when she almost lost her Senate seat.


32 posted on 11/03/2008 4:50:28 AM PST by Dawgreg (Happiness is not having what you want, but wanting what you have.)
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