Where the Polls Went Wrong (FLASHBACK: Carter Reagan)

Time Magazine ^ | Dec. 1, 1980 | John F. Stacks

[FocusNexus]

Reagan's landslide challenges the pulse-taker profession

For weeks before the presidential election, the gurus of public opinion polling were nearly unanimous in their findings. In survey after survey, they agreed that the coming choice between President Jimmy Carter and Challenger Ronald Reagan was "too close to call." A few points at most, they said, separated the two major contenders.

But when the votes were counted, the former California Governor had defeated Carter by a margin of 51% to 41% in the popular vote - a rout for a U.S. presidential race. In the electoral college, the Reagan victory was a 10-to-l avalanche that left the President holding only six states and the District of Columbia.

After being so right for so long about presidential elections - the pollsters' findings had closely agreed with the voting results for most of the past 30 years -how could the surveys have been so wrong? The question is far more than technical. The spreading use of polls by the press and television has an important, if unmeasurable, effect on how voters perceive the candidates and the campaign, creating a kind of synergistic effect: the more a candidate rises in the polls, the more voters seem to take him seriously.

[FocusNexus]

Let's make this another historic election proving the polls wrong.

Get out and vote -- don't let the MSM select our president, by making their predictions a self fulfilling prophecy. Just think if many of the Reagan voters had stayed home, based on the poll predictions...

[StatenIsland]

Can somebody tell me why public polling is not illegal? They are obviously prone to being tainted, and can unfairly affect the outcome of elections.

In sure, they represent a dangerous path to the abridgement of our right to free and fair elections.

[nwrep]

Can somebody tell me why public polling is not illegal?

The First Amendment.

[Ikemeister]

The last two paragraphs of this story sum it up.

[conservativegramma]

Can somebody tell me why public polling is not illegal? They are obviously prone to being tainted, and can unfairly affect the outcome of elections. In sure, they represent a dangerous path to the abridgement of our right to free and fair elections.

Applause, applause, I couldn't agree more. Its almost as if pollsters are actively trying to manipulate the outcome of elections. Its a very dangerous path, you are absolutely right!

[ScreamingFist]

I smell smoke, the MSM is about to find out that all their bias, butt-kissing and pandering has been for naught. We are coming to vote for McCain/Palin in numbers they can't even dream of......

GOTV FReepers.......now is the time.

[gwilhelm56]

**Let’s make this another historic election proving the polls wrong.**

I would rather, instead of seeing a Reagan/Carter style Beating, See a REAGAN/MONDALE style LANDSLIDE

[bruinbirdman]

"Re-interviewing 2,651 adults who had been questioned before the election, Mitofsky found that some 13% of the voters changed their minds in the last few days of the campaign "

This does not include the 8-12% who are undecided today.

McCain pulls it out.

yitbos

[edzo4]

The spreading use of polls by the press and television has an important, if unmeasurable, effect on how voters perceive the candidates and the campaign, creating a kind of synergistic effect: the more a candidate rises in the polls, the more voters seem to take him seriously.

and here in the story is the exact reason the polls ahve been tilted to favor Obama, it is all the media has

[woodb01]

Prone to being tainted? When the CONSISTENTLY skew the polls ONLY one direction thier is no “prone” to it.

THEY ARE DELIBERATELY TAINED TO TRY TO DEPRESS THE CONSERVATIVE VOTE TURNOUT!

~~~~~~~~~~~

[edzo4]

I'd be happy with either, 1980

or 1984

[wagglebee]

TIME and the rest of the MSM already KNOW that McCain is winning, they are now in CYA mode to explain why.

[sanchmo]

One puzzling phenomenon that the pollsters have not been able to cope with, or even explain thoroughly, is the so-called closet Reaganite. For whatever reason, people clearly voted for Reagan in this election who had said they would not.

[wagglebee]

Just one correction, Carter won Georgia in 1980.

[bray]

America isn’t as in love w/bama as the pollsters are. The continue to have to add Dems to their mixes to get the desired results.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops

[StatenIsland]

Can somebody tell me why public polling is not illegal?

The First Amendment.

Then why can I not campaign right outside the voting booth? It is an unfair attempt to manipulate the outcome of an election, and trumps my right to free speech.

[snarkytart]

Not only that, but that’s the reason WHY there are waaaaay more polls this cycle than any other cycle.
To spread propaganda. Pure and simple.

[woodb01]

You can engage in “electioneering” within up to around 50 feet of most polling places. That means they have signs, and can distribute literature, even while you are in line until you come to within 50 feet of the voting booth.

[PapaBear3625]

Good paragraph here:

Everett Ladd, director of the University of Connecticut's Social Science Data Center, says flatly: "I am 100% certain that there was no 'closet Reaganism' in this election." Other pollsters tend to agree. But there is some evidence that suggests otherwise. Before the election, only 7% of the blacks surveyed by New York Times-CBS News said they were going to vote for Reagan; Election Day exit polling showed that 14% had actually cast their ballots for the Californian. But when re-polled by New York Times-CBS News, only 6% of blacks admitted they had voted for Reagan.

There are a lot of people out there who CANNOT admit they will be voting for McCain, because the fear catching hell.

[machman]

Gallup Poll Says Reagan Tied by Mondale, Glenn

A great old thread from 2004 about what the polls had to say before the election in years past.

Great titles for old news stories:

Poll Puts Mondale Even With Reagan (July 1984)

Roosevelt Odds For Re-election Slump to 7 to 5: Digest Ballot, Indicating His Policies Unpopular (dec. 1935)

Poll Sees Dewey Sweep Like Roosevelt in '36 Sept 1948

Carter Goes Into Debate With Lead in New Poll: Oct 1980

Perot Hurts Clinton Most, Poll Finds; Texas Billionaire More Damaging to Arkansan Than to Bush (April 1992)