Posted on 11/01/2008 11:09:06 AM PDT by tatown
As promised, here is what is on the mind of my mentor, nicknamed Obi-Wan Kenobi, two-and-a-half days before the sun rises on Election Day...
Your posts on some polls in Pennsylvania that show McCain within reach emphasizes what some readers need to remember, that a lot them aren’t seeing the pointed end of the McCain campaign unless they live in a targeted state and are a targeted voter. If you have the right demographic and you are in a key state, you have gotten getting six or seven mailers that are extremely good negative pieces (covering all those issues that a lot of conservatives think McCain isn’t hitting hard enough on). You have also gotten six or seven taped phone calls from Republican leaders and ordinary citizens and the messages are good. You are also hearing radio ads about “congressional liberals.”
The RNC is claiming 64 percent more contacts like this than in 2004 and I think that’s probably accurate. And the 2004 effort was impressive – RNC was praised for it. This is bigger.
And if you live in a targeted state you are seeing McCain TV ads. Lots of them. For all the talk of the Obama advertising advantage, McCain is outspending Obama by 10 million in the last ten days of the campaign. That isn’t well known. And they are good spots on McCain’s public service, the economic message and in what the McCain camp calls “Joe the Biden”, which quotes Biden about testing a new president.
(Excerpt) Read more at campaignspot.nationalreview.com ...
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
mailers—check
Does that mean Wisconsin is still targeted?
I am in Minnesota, and I have seen the ads, but mostly hear them on the radio.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
I SO look forward to watching all their faces Tuesday night! It’s gonna be a joy to me, watching the spectacle of all the pundits trying to explain what they see happening right before their beady little eyes....a JOY!
Like a lot of folks, I’ve been biding my time, waiting patiently for MY time to roar! It’s almost here!
VOTE!
pattyjo
That might be the best strategy in some states. I hope it works. Full court press hasn’t worked here so far.
ping
Joe the Biden....Oh, that’s good, real good.
Freep-mail me to get on or off my pro-life and Catholic List:
Please ping me to note-worthy Pro-Life or Catholic threads, or other threads of interest.
Obama Says A Baby Is A Punishment
Obama: “If they make a mistake, I don’t want them punished with a baby.”
Really, it conjures up the absolutely negative reverse of
Joe the Plumber, and since you can’t think of one without the other, you have to remember the origional in it’s positive context.
Somebody is a magnificent B*stard~!
Hasn’t worked where?
Someone on FR posted last night about the Repubs GOTV database that was build by Rove in 2000 and was improved in 2004 and 2008.
The poster pointed out the Democrats answer is the thugs in ACORN.
I just meant in some states an under-the-radar approach might work better.
They did in 2004 as well.
We hardly heard much about it even after the election in 2004 and the media KNEW why they (Kerry) lost.
My hope is the media has convinced RAT voters O has won. Keep them home on Nov. 4 and have a massive GOP GOTV!
Yo dog. wher ya goin.
Hey man, to vote.
No need dog we already be the man, the Negro has done won his thang.
McCain is cutting back the GOTV operation and shifting the money to TV ads.
OTOH, the current RCP electoral map shows PA as only "leaning" blue.
The real meat of this story is in the last paragraph. The assumptions made about voter turn out rely on 80%+ of democrats voting for Obama. I would say that is true of “vocal” democrats. What they are not picking up is Union Members, PUMAS and Moderate Democrats who can’t say publicly that they are against Obama.
If 40% of the Democrating Party is moderate and falls into these categories (and I think that is a low number), and 1 out of four of them decide not to vote or better yet, to vote for McCain, then Democratic loyalty drops 10% over all to just over 70%. That 10% is enough to swing the election and at this point, what this subgroup does is a mystery to everyone because nobody’s reporting on it.
That being said, as a moderate Democrat I see a lot of annecdotal evidence that suggests we are not too happy about our party being hijacked by Marxists. We shall see how this screw turns.
Addendum: According to the current map, McCain needs to run the board on every single tossup state, pick up both PA and OH, and then get one more electoral vote somewhere.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.