Posted on 10/31/2008 11:52:31 AM PDT by tatown
October 31, 2008
Day 19: IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll
The race showed little change Friday, with Obama's lead ticking up 0.3 point and most internals stable. The Democrat's advantage with independents narrowed a bit, with 13% of them still undecided. McCain regained his advantage with investors, but Obama kept the 9-point lead he jumped to with seniors at midweek, and he's now in front for the first time with suburbanites.
(Excerpt) Read more at ibdeditorials.com ...
Undecideds will split the vote like they always do, and end up being of no consequence.
McCain’s real chance lies in the fact conservatives always vote and liberals often don’t. They are not going to line up for 8 hours in the cold streets of Philly for Obama. McCains voters will show up, not all of Obamas will, McCain has a good chance of winning because of that.
What’s the party weighting, Kenneth?
Thanks Chet...but OMG...now McCain is on the “Gore” line...ugh....
When they all use the same basic model that is wrong, then they will be incorrect en masse.
Or a death of a thousand paper cuts...or being pecked to death by ducks.
Utter nonsense. Undecideds decisively broke for Gore in 2000, and Bush in 2004.. (the "safe" picks).
I talked to the TIPP pollster last week. While the don’t publicize their party weighting, he told me that they are only anticipating a 2-3 point gap favoring dems. This is not a poll that is oversampling dems by >5 points.
Does that mean our fate is in the hands of the dumb safty seeking people? Argggggg
I’m no cheerleader, and I don’t know if McCain can pull it off, but things are looking better than he did a couple weeks ago.
Someone explain to me why this poll is bad news for McCain, Obama is at 48 percent, McCain a mere 4 points away (within the margin of error), 8 percent undecided. If Obama is below 50 he loses, keep hope alive.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pLKmTgcVm7Pd_N-_t7U2cVQ
IMO, most undecides will break for McCain.They have been intimidated by the media swoon and don’t tell the truth to pollsters.
If they're "undecided" at this point, they ain't voting for Obama. 67-33 to McCain is the most conservative case I'd consider, with as high as 80-20 to McCain.
4.4%, what is the MOE?
I'll delete mine.
You heard me, Mister! Or Miss! Or Mrs.! Or Ms.
If what is currently happening in Nevada happens on a national level any at all, it's over for 0bama, TIPP poll notwithstanding.
FWIW, I don't put any more stock in "the most accurate poll in 2004" than I do any of the others, and for the same reason as the others - they all are operating under skewed partisan demographics and making unfounded assumptions about turnout that are turning out (pun intended) to be empirically false per the exit polling data from several early voting states.
You can't produce an accurate poll when your assuming a lot more young voters than are actually voting, when you are overinflating Dem weighting due to ACORN and Operation Chaos tomfoolery, and when your unable (through no fault of your own) to account for any number of "effects" from the Bradley effect to the PUMA effect.
I’d like to see most polls down in the 2-4 percent range on Monday, but I doubt will see that since weekend polling trends to Democrats. Looks like I’ll be sweating it out Tuesday night.
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