Prop. 8 still trails, but margin narrows

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 10/31/8 | John Wildermuth

[SmithL]

The struggle over Proposition 8, which would ban same-sex marriage in California, has tightened dramatically in the past month, with opponents holding a slim 49 to 44 percent edge among likely voters, according to a new Field Poll.

"The 'Yes' campaign has raised some doubts and moved people over to their side," said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. "A relatively large segment of voters are in conflict over this measure."

<< Database: Look up Prop. 8 donors >>

The new poll also showed that Proposition 2, which would require bigger cages and pens for farm animals, appears headed toward an easy victory on Tuesday with a 60 to 27 percent lead. The news is worse for Proposition 7, the renewable energy generation measure, which is now losing 39 to 43 percent, down from 63 percent support a month ago.

Proposition 11, which would let a citizens' committee draw political boundaries in the state, holds a solid 45 to 30 percent lead, but 25 percent of likely voters still haven't made up their minds.

But the same-sex marriage battle is the top California issue on the ballot and the new poll suggests the final margin could be razor thin, with victory within reach for either side.

Opponents of Prop. 8 saw their 17-point lead in the September Field Poll melt away in the face of a multimillion-dollar onslaught of TV ads, leaving them hanging on desperately to their lead.

They still have a lead, however, with Prop. 8 supporters running out of time.

"I like the fact that the 'Yes' side is stuck in the mid-40s," said Steve Smith, political consultant for the opposition effort. "The other side is clearly having trouble crossing the 50 percent barrier."

History suggests that Prop. 8 supporters have a tough road ahead, DiCamillo said.

[SmithL]

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[SmithL]

In this happy land of tolerance and diversity, it is unsafe to admit to supporting Prop 8.

[CatOwner]

Yes, it is called the (Harvey} Milk Effect. Prop 8 will pass with at least 55% of the vote and likely 60%. I suspect this poll was done in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

[xcamel]

Which means, even in “Kalifornicater”, that prop 8 will pass by 65-70% - just like similar anti-gay-marriage proposals have passed every other time they have been floated.

[ecomcon]

I’m with you. It’s the same thing the msm is doing with the presidential polls; demoralize the opponent with slanted polls.

[edcoil]

I think it has more to do with our idiot Governor signing SB 777 last year.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

I’m not particularly confident in the Field poll on this issue. It has historically been left-leaning in results, not necessarily from deliberate twisting, but possibly in tenor of questioner’s approach or even a concentration of urban respondents.

I expect prop 8 to pass unless the networks call the election for Obama early and depress conservative and moderate turnout here.

[coton_lover]

Well I am happy to say that that I am voting for Prop. 8.

[sharkshooting]

I hope Prop 8 wins convincingly and shuts up the debate over this. In reality, if gay marriage loses in CA then they will realize that it will not stand anywhere and they can just go away.

On the sneaky side though, I wish this would drag McCain over in CA. How amazing would that be? I know, I know not possible...but I have seen stranger things happen.

[dan1123]

<< Database: Look up Prop. 8 donors >>

What is this? An aid for people who want to vandalize others’ property? We already know that the No On Prop 8 people will tear down signs and spray paint peoples’ houses. Now they have a way to really stick it to anyone who gave $100 or more.

[ridesthemiles]

Funny how a 5% poll difference is a “slim margin” when it is a Liberal Proposition...

But 3%, within the MOE, is a commanding lead when Nobama is leading.......

Can anyone in the media use the same mathematical standards?

I also notice the hyperbole used when giving any kinds of mathematical statistics.

If 25 people are killed in a bombing- the news says “DOZENS”. If 9 people are wounded, it is “almost a dozen”. In my world- bookkeeping, 11 is “almost a dozen”, not 9.

Try listening when the media is using numbers.
They get very distorted, and they almost always have to increase everything.

[SmithL]

And I am happy to have already voted for Prop 8.

[jmaroneps37]

California’ Gay Marriage Prop 8: A Tie
30 Oct 2008 05:00 pm

Internal polling for proponents of Proposition 8, which would ban same-sex marriage in California, shows the race tied; public polls have it tied at 44% to 44% with 12 percent undecided. Internal polling for opponents of proposition 8 have the race within the margin of error.

So it’s real close. Both sides are accusing other of dirty tactics; someone effectuated a denial-of-service attack on the No side’s website.

Yes on 8 director Frank Schubert says his side will have 100,000 volunteers on Election Day. (That’s unlikely — initiative directors like to equate their lists with their volunteers — but even if he has 5,000 volunteers, it will be impressive.) Lots of money and people power have been donated through the efforts of the LDS Church and the Knights of Columbus.

A while ago, the No on 8 side was very worried; Patrick Guerrero, a senior political strategist affiliated with uber-gay-Democrat financier Tim Gill and a former executive director of the Log Cabin Republicans, was brought on board to save the efforts. He raised a lot of money very quickly. A week and a half ago, Guy Cecil, who helped to engineer Hillary Clinton’s (too) late-in-the-reason victories in PA and OH, joined as a senior strategist.

[calcowgirl]

Here’s another Hollywood leftist weighing in
(comparing gay rights to the civil rights movement)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oj-0xMrsyxE

Samuel L. Jackson records No on 8 ad