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Posted on 10/31/2008 3:37:15 AM PDT by xcamel
Boston (MA) - Scientists at MIT have recorded a nearly simultaneous world-wide increase in methane levels. This is the first increase in ten years, and what baffles science is that this data contradicts theories stating man is the primary source of increase for this greenhouse gas. It takes about one full year for gases generated in the highly industrial northern hemisphere to cycle through and reach the southern hemisphere. However, since all worldwide levels rose simultaneously throughout the same year, it is now believed this may be part of a natural cycle in mother nature - and not the direct result of man's contributions.
Methane - powerful greenhouse gas
The two lead authors of a paper published in this week's Geophysical Review Letters, Matthew Rigby and Ronald Prinn, the TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry in MIT's Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science, state that as a result of the increase, several million tons of new methane is present in the atmosphere.
Methane accounts for roughly one-fifth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, though its effect is 25x greater than that of carbon dioxide. Its impact on global warming comes from the reflection of the sun's light back to the Earth (like a greenhouse). Methane is typically broken down in the atmosphere by the free radical hydroxyl (OH), a naturally occuring process. This atmospheric cleanser has been shown to adjust itself up and down periodically, and is believed to account for the lack of increases in methane levels in Earth's atmosphere over the past ten years despite notable simultaneous increases by man.
More study
Prinn has said, "The next step will be to study [these changes] using a very high-resolution atmospheric circulation model and additional measurements from other networks. The key thing is to better determine the relative roles of increased methane emission versus [an increase] in the rate of removal. Apparently we have a mix of the two, but we want to know how much of each [is responsible for the overall increase]."
The primary concern now is that 2007 is long over. While the collected data from that time period reflects a simultaneous world-wide increase in emissions, observing atmospheric trends now is like observing the healthy horse running through the paddock a year after it overcame some mystery illness. Where does one even begin? And how relevant are any of the data findings at this late date? Looking back over 2007 data as it was captured may prove as ineffective if the data does not support the high resolution details such a study requires.
One thing does seem very clear, however; science is only beginning to get a handle on the big picture of global warming. Findings like these tell us it's too early to know for sure if man's impact is affecting things at the political cry of "alarming rates." We may simply be going through another natural cycle of warmer and colder times - one that's been observed through a scientific analysis of the Earth to be naturally occuring for hundreds of thousands of years.
Project funding
Rigby and Prinn carried out this study with help from researchers at Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Georgia Institute of Technology, University of Bristol and Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Methane gas measurements came from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE), which is supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Australian CSIRO network.
That’s a great point. Thanks.
I appreciate the link too.
What's up with volcanoes under Arctic sea ice?
Excellent follow-up information will be found in reply 16.
Oh, and sorry, you don’t get to use “definitive source” and “just the messenger” is the same thought bubble.
You are the one who linked to a discovery networks site that is making “global warming” a business model.
No soup for you.
“Peter A. Stott is a climate scientist and Manager of Understanding and Attributing Climate Change at the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, U.K.[1]
He was a lead author of the IPCC WG I report, chapter 9, for the AR4 released in 2007.”
The whole mess stinks to me - between those who have committed themselves to their hand and have gone “all-in” and those waiting for the next flop, the size of the winning pot is the most important thing.
I agree. It is how I see the TOE as well. That is, there is some real science there, but it is a tiny center to a mouth sized jawbreaker of "religios ferver". And just as hard to break through
Haven’t found the paper or the abstract.
How do they do this usingfive data points?
FWIW - they’re all the same people, and their progeny, that were so badly humiliated during and after the last great “coming ice age” panic.
They never go away, they just waste everyones time (and boatloads of money) coming up with the “next great panic”
I don’t see the term “definitive source” in post 96. Sorry, I guess I should have linked to the article in the Khaleej Times so as not to raise your hackles.
http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~nathan/pdf/ngeo338.pdf
Have fun: gotta go trick-or-treating. I'm going dressed as a CO2 molecule and I'm going to hit a lot of the houses of liberals I know: that should scare them!
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It’s not Global Warming,
it’s Ocean Warming
Ocean Floor Geysers Warming The Seas
(And we wonder why the oceans are warming)
22 Sep 08 - “It’s like finding Old Faithful in Illinois. When we went out to
try to get a feel for how much heat was coming from the ocean floor and
how much sea water might be moving through it, we found that there was
much more heat than we expected at the outcrops.”
See Ocean Floor Geysers Warming The Seas
.
.
World’s deepest chain of undersea volcanoes to be explored
1 Sep 08 — Scientists at the National Oceanography Centre are set to
explore the world’s deepest undersea volcanoes five kilometers beneath
the Caribbean.
See Deepest chain of undersea volcanoes to be explored
.
.
‘Black smokers’ found in Arctic Ocean
4 Aug 08 - Jets of searingly hot water spewing up from the sea floor
have been discovered in a far-northern zone of the Arctic Ocean,
Swiss-based scientists announced Monday.
See ‘Black smokers’ found in Arctic Ocean.
.
.
Boiling Hot Water Found in Frigid Arctic Sea
24 Jul 08 – “Many miles inside the Arctic Circle, scientists have found
vents of scalding liquid rising out of the seafloor at temperatures that are
more than twice the boiling point of water.
See Boiling Hot Water Found in Frigid Arctic Sea
.
.
Undersea volcanic activity blamed for mass extinction 93 million years ago
16 Jul 08 - Researchers from the University of Alberta, Canada, find evidence of
underwater volcanism in rocks dating to a mass extinction 93 million years ago.
See Undersea volcanic activity blamed for mass extinction
.
.
Huge Underwater Volcanoes in the Arctic Ocean,
but scientists see no significant connection to melting ice?
27 Jun 08 – The eruptions discharge large amounts of carbon dioxide,
helium, trace metals and heat into the water over long distances, but
scientists see no significant connection to melting ice.
See No significant connection to melting ice
.
.
Giant Undersea Volcano Found Off Iceland
(And we wonder why the oceans are warming)
22 Apr 08 - It’s an active volcano that rises about 3,300 feet (1,000 meters)
above the surrounding sections, coming within 1,300 feet (400 meters) of the surface.
See Giant Undersea Volcano Found Off Iceland
.
.
Hawaiian volcano pumping more lava than usual into the ocean
5 Jul 08 - The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory said Saturday that
Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano is pumping more lava than usual into the ocean.
See Hawaiian volcano pumping more lava than usual into the ocean
.
.
Magma May Be Melting Greenland Ice
18 Dec 07 - I added another article to this posting
13 Dec 07 - Scientists have found at least one natural-magma hotspot under
the Greenland Ice Sheet where heat from Earth’s insides could seep through,
See Magma May Be Melting Greenland Ice
.
.
Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
25 Jun 08 - Red-hot magma has been rising from deep inside the earth
and blown the tops off dozens of submarine volcanoes, four kilometers
below the ice. And we wonder what is melting the ice.
See Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
.
http://www.iceagenow.com/Ocean_Warming.htm
ScienceDaily (Jan. 22, 2008) — The first evidence of a volcanic eruption from beneath Antarctica’s most rapidly changing ice sheet has been reported. The volcano on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet erupted 2000 years ago (325BC) and remains active...
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/01/080120160720.htm
[Parts of the observed and simulated trend patterns are associated with an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index, which has probably been forced by a combination of greenhouse gas increases and stratospheric ozone depletion.
The pattern of temperature trends associated with the trend in the SAM consists of warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and cooling elsewhere, but the effect on the observed trends seems weaker here than in previous studies, partly because we are considering annual mean changes rather than just summer and autumn, and partly because there was a maximum in the SAM in the early 1960s, making the SAM trend over the period considered here smaller than that over the 1969–2000 period.
After the SAM-congruent component of the observed temperature trends has been removed, residual trends show warming everywhere except for at the South Pole, making them more similar to simulated residual trends than the corresponding raw trends. The CMIP3 models simulate a SAM-congruent temperature trend pattern that is weaker than that observed, owing to a smaller mean SAM trend in the models (0:05 hPa yr1) than that observed (0:06 hPa yr1) and a weaker temperature response to the SAM: the r.m.s. amplitude of the mean simulated temperature regression on the SAM is 79% of that observed. To objectively test for the presence of an anthropogenic or natural response in observations of polar temperature, we use a detection and attribution analysis to compare simulated and observed changes.
Such methods, first developed to detect anthropogenic influence on global temperature, have more recently been used to detect anthropogenic influence on temperature on continental scales.]
Looks like to me that they began by throwing out all the data that wouldn't fit their model.
And none of it would work if the ozone influence data weren't cranked in to supplement the data.
how do scientists estimate the temps from 200, 300, 500, 800 or 2000 yrs ago and determine any signifigant pattern in a planet that they claim is billions of yrs old ???
thats the part that always smacked me as obvious...
It’s a little like statistics. You can find statistics to prove just about anything you want to. And someone who disagrees with you, can also find statistics to prove you are wrong.
It’s in the reading of the tea leaves. Sometimes they get lucky and sometimes they are later found to be complete fools.
Thanks!
I'm going dressed as a CO2 molecule and I'm going to hit a lot of the houses of liberals I know: that should scare them!Depends on where you're wearing the two carbon atoms...
Methane levels rose surprising in 2007.
From 0.000001775 parts of the atmosphere in 2006,
To 0.000001785 parts of the atmosphere in 2007.
This does, however, translate into an increase of global warming of 0.002 W/m2 or approximately 0.0015 degrees C increase in temps.
Enough to change absolutely nothing.
Sorry, but that part is proprietary.
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