Posted on 10/30/2008 4:19:18 PM PDT by WatchYourself
Survey USA's latest Iowa Poll gives Obama an incredible 55-40% edge. But once again, the internals tell a different story. McCain holds support of 84% of Republicans while Obama holds the support of 86% of Democrats. Obama holds a slim 11% advantage among independents.
In 2004, there were more Republicans than Democrats voting (36-34%). If you want to assume that Democrats have closed that 2% gap, you can't ignore the fact that McCain and Obama have EQUAL party support, so assuming equal turnout, the race would have to be tied. Now, factor in the Independents, Obama has a just a 6-Point lead which if holding would give him an overall advantage of just 1-2 points. (Bush lost the Independents by 8 but still won the state) So how does SurveyUSA pass of a 15 point lead? The internals suggest it's a 1-2 point race in favor of either McCain or Obama.
They’re reaching. No way they didn’t oversample Dems by at least 10 percent.
That is a joke.
Iowa is gone. Obama will take it. Deep down, it’s a liberal state, and McCain blew any chance there when he stood strong against ethanol subsidies (as well he should have, BTW). Doesn’t matter, Iowa is not part of McCain’s path to 270 anyway.
OK, so why is Zero in Iowa tomorrow?
“So how does SurveyUSA pass of a 15 point lead?”
Your calculations omit independents.
Anyway, the polling in Iowa is useless. Republicans will tell pollsters they will vote for McCain, but will really vote for Obama.
It’s the “Ethanol Effect.”
Survey USA published polls with leads for webb in the VA senate race that were the exact margin that they oversampled Democrats by in 2006.
State polls are so out of whack this year.
Something is not right. Probably just a sample problem.
It’s obvious the democrat rank and file don’t realize how they got conned in the primaries, this would be comical. Except, it’s not.
Exactly. This does not add up. Today I was told that a friend who has been a die-hard RAT his whole life who has voted for RATs, but this year both he and his wife have voted for McCain.
You would be correct. They oversampled Democrats by 16%, 45-29.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2882b094-e5d3-4110-93fa-e037638e7bb2
“Your calculations omit independents.”
Uhhh, no it doesn’t. I stated that Obama has a 6% lead among Independents. Obama and McCain are virtually tied in Party support. Republicans held a 2-point advantage in voter turnout in 2004. I even wiped out that margin, with equal party support and turnout the race is now 50-50. When you factor in the Independents (which only make up 20% of Iowa) it is impossible to assume that the race goes from a 50-50 tie without Indies counter to a 55-40 Obama lead with them counted, especially when Obama’s lead among Indies is a slim 49-43%. At best, it’s a 1-2 point race.
If Iowa was that far out of reach I doubt McCain and Obama would be spending much time there in these final weeks. McCain was there last week and Obama will be there either tomorrow or Saturday (forgot which day).
Doesn’t seem like a state that is sown up yet.
How does a state Bush won in ‘04, with a black population of 0.00001%, go for a black militant marxist 4 years later...by 15, no less?
I don’t buy it.
What does that have to do with the point of the thread, i.e. the internals do not jive with the final poll result?
No way Iowa is gone. It is not a liberal state. It was one of the most closely contested states in 2000 and 2004.
You wanna know what the party ID was for this joke of a SurveyUSA poll? Try this: R29, D45, I25. That’s right. In a poll with a Dem +16 advantage, Obama leads by only 15 points.
In 2004, Bush won Iowa 50-49. In 2000, Gore won Iowa 49-48. In 1996, Clinton won Iowa with 50 of the vote, while Dole and Perot combined for 49%. See a pattern here? Iowa is a toss-up state, and any poll showing either candidate leading by more than 2 points, polling more than 51 percent, or polling less than 47-48 percent should be tossed as junk.
Today was a good day for me - an Obama worker called me to encourage me to vote and I told her that I already did and I changed my mind and voted for McCain.
She was young and didn’t get rude so I suppose she just doesn’t know enough to realize what she is doing.
Iowa farmers love pork.
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