Penetrating Insights into the Obvious
Posted on 10/30/2008 2:28:27 PM PDT by quesney
We're moving past the days of flawed polls with all their built-in biases, limitations and defective party-weighting...to the cold, hard reality of real people casting real votes
...and that reality so far is looking very good....for McCain-Palin.
NEVADA If These Numbers Are Right, You Can Almost Call Nevada For McCain Now -----
Campaign Spot reader Laurence notes an interesting wrinkle in the post below about Nevada. The guy doing the exit poll of those who have already voted, with 7,147 responses, puts Obama ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent.
If Republicans were a lot more of the early voters, McCain would be nervous. If Democrats were a lot more of the early voters, Obama should be nervous. And if they were split even, a 50-48 Obama lead is in the neighborhood of what we would expect.
In Clark County, "through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans. In Washoe County, 51 percent of the early voters through Sunday were Democrats, while 33 percent were Republicans. Clark County, which includes Las Vegas and its surrounding area, has 68.7 percent of the registered voters in the state. Washoe County, which includes Reno, has 18.6 percent of the registered voters in the state. In Clark County, Democrats hold a 46.3 percent to 32.3 percent edge in voter registration. In Washoe County, the split is 39.2 percent Democrat, 38.7 percent Republican.
***With those numbers, you would expect Obama to be ahead by a much wider margin. Unless that poll of the early voters was way off...a considerable number of Democrats and independents/unaffiliateds in Nevada are voting for McCain.***
No pollster has had McCain ahead in Nevada since the end of September. So why is McCain so dramatically overperforming among early voters who are disproportionately Democrats?
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119983/posts
ISRAEL: Absentee voting exit polls (3-to-1 for McCain, 46% of Democrats crossing party lines)
The exit polls show a very strong preference for John McCain over Barack Obama. The polls, carried and analyzed by Keevoon, a Jerusalem-based research, strategy and communications firm, indicate that 76% of the polled voters in Israel said they voted for Republican candidate John McCain; 24% said they cast their ballot in favor the Democrat, Barack Obama. The information is based on data collected from 817 absentee voters at several voting events in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv as well as an online survey.
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/10/israel-absentee.html#more
Oy.
-------------------------------
FLORIDA Are we Looking at a McCain Blowout? » by Bill Dupray in: Barack Obama, Election, Florida, John McCain
This will cheer you.
Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early. . . .
But party breakdowns for turnout aren’t the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.
A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.
And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
Brian Faughnan over at RedState notes.
By way of comparison, there were a total of about 7.5 million votes cast in Florida in 2004 for the two major party presidential candidates. If the reporting on absentee ballots is correct, and the Los Angeles Times exit poll of early voters is also correct, then McCain currently has a lead of about 400,000 votes after one-third of all Floridians have cast their ballots. (It’s also important to note that about 325,000 of the votes so far are unassigned.)
If McCain is already winning Florida by 400,000 votes, with a third of the eligible voters having cast their ballots, Barack Obama is going to have a hard time prevailing in the state.
The Dems discount the fact that a lot of registered Democrats (PUMAs, Patriots, etc.) will be voting for McCain. There will be far fewer Republicans voting for The One. Indications are that the independents will break for McCain as well. So unless the Dems are far exceeding GOP turnout, these numbers may actually be even better for Mac. http://patriotroom.com/?p=3555
Key Links!
NEVADA
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2119983/posts
AMERICANS IN ISRAEL
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/10/israel-absentee.html#more
FLORIDA
http://patriotroom.com/?p=3555
Great news! Not over ‘til it’s over, though...VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!
Go McCain-Palin!
Thank you, for this report.
As of this morning: (Not exact)
Liberal Travis county (Texas). 260,000 early votes.
Conservative Williamson county (adjacent to the north) 60,000 early votes.
The Libs are voting early as a rule.
Good news bump
AND FL....DON'T BELIEVE IT and DON'T FALL FOR IT...GO OUT AND VOTE...take as many folk as you can...DON'T GIVE UP HAVE FAITH!!! Now FIGHT dangit!!!
What about Colorado? If we wins there 0-bama is over!
God save our Country!
What about Colorado? If we win there 0-bama is over!
God save our Country!
Their motto isn't vote early and vote often for no reason. It takes time to cast multiple votes for the dead and bums.
What do these numbers mean - can you put them in perspective for me? I am curious as I am one who early voted in Travis County.
God save our country is right! I’ve been praying so hard, I wish I could go camp out in a church during the election, clinging to my gun and Bible of course!
Me too!! I go to bed praying, and wake up in the night praying...get up praying!!!! OH God SAVE OUR LAND!!!
DONATE!!!!!
Dick Morris said on Hannity , these ads are POWERFUL. I JUST watched one and donated IMMEDATELY.
http://nationalrepublicantrust.com
Israel should be declared the 58th state.
Heh.
Does anyone know how Ohio is doing? I’m so afraid it’s going to robbed right out from under us. How are the numbers there?
Amen, Sister, Amen!!!!
Let me light up that link. It is a great ad. Pass it on everyone.
http://nationalrepublicantrust.com
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