Posted on 10/30/2008 10:08:19 AM PDT by forYourChildrenVote4Bush
The race for the White House has tightened significantly -- with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by three percentage points -- according to a FOX News poll released Thursday.
Barack Obama now leading John McCain by 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters
(Excerpt) Read more at elections.foxnews.com ...
The Fox poll has always been Democrat leaning. Fox had Kerry winning the popular vote by 2%
So this is very surprising.
Like in 2004, you seem extremely negative. Hopefully this is a good Omen.
It would be more accurate to say pessimistic. And maybe you’re right about it being a good Omen.
Fox News/Dynamic poll is always the worst, favoring Dems. Very good news. I think in reality its probably 48-46 for McCain nationally.
Do whatever suits you. Personally, I don’t put any faith in what you say. Would not be surprised if you were a plant — a weed. Then again you could be a rose and we just don’t like your thorns.
After this election, no more Fox for me.
It’ll be Drudge and Free Republic for my news.
I accidentally voted for Buchanan the past 2 elections :(
Do we have data on the Fox definition of Likely Voter? Have they too been taken in by the supposed registration surge?
I think it is reasonable for pollsters to try to capture some aspect of the Hillary / Obama primary numbers surge for Democrats, but they have gone out of control on it, and are failing to recognize that most of those numbers were in states they will never win in the election — which Hillary pointed out. Dem turnout surged in Mississippi and Alabama. They are not going Dem.
Those pollsters are also ignoring the PUMA affect, where some of those numbers go to McCain.
The early voting results (not the 2008 results but how they compare to 2004) and the overall closure of polls do indicate that this race is close and winnable, by either side.
You're a simple poster aren't you.
What don't you like about the poll now?
What didn't you like about the poll before?
Myself, I like the poll now because this FOX News poll has now reweighted the sample. Before it was +7 D. Now it's +2 D.
RCP is totally useless this election. Anytime they factor in the most inaccurate polls like Quinnipiac University, you can forget it.
RCP is as reliable as my Ouija board.
I accidentally voted for Buchanan the past 2 elections :(
You can just hear someone saying, ‘Quick, readjust the poll numbers to make Obama lead by 10 again!’
And you know that how?
You can concentrate on the polls that showed Obama beating Hillary in many of the State Primaries, when she trounced him.
Now, if you are going to argue that these polls are accurate, you need to deal with the internals,(oversampling of Democrats, false assumptions of a massive youth turnout etc) which you never do.
That is how we know you are really cheering for Obama.
Depends on what the internals are!
If they are actually only using likely voters, we are seeing some reality, and even with that, they are undersampling Republicans.
Now, it is funny how you pop on these threads to give your two cents of negative thinking and yet think all of these polls are bogus.
You think that the ones showing McCain losing are accurate so stop blowing smoke.
bttt
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