It would be more accurate to say pessimistic. And maybe you’re right about it being a good Omen.
Fox News/Dynamic poll is always the worst, favoring Dems. Very good news. I think in reality its probably 48-46 for McCain nationally.
Do we have data on the Fox definition of Likely Voter? Have they too been taken in by the supposed registration surge?
I think it is reasonable for pollsters to try to capture some aspect of the Hillary / Obama primary numbers surge for Democrats, but they have gone out of control on it, and are failing to recognize that most of those numbers were in states they will never win in the election — which Hillary pointed out. Dem turnout surged in Mississippi and Alabama. They are not going Dem.
Those pollsters are also ignoring the PUMA affect, where some of those numbers go to McCain.
The early voting results (not the 2008 results but how they compare to 2004) and the overall closure of polls do indicate that this race is close and winnable, by either side.