Posted on 10/28/2008 6:51:08 AM PDT by TornadoAlley3
Is North Carolina reverting back to form?
After a month of leading most N.C. polls, Barack Obama finds himself in a dead heat today with John McCain.
Raleigh's Public Policy Polling has Obama leading McCain, 49-48, in a survey released Monday. Obama led by seven in PPP's poll one week ago.
Rasmussen, in a poll released Monday evening, has McCain on top by the same 49-48 margin. McCain led by two in a Rasmussen poll Friday.
N.C. hasn't awarded its 15 electoral votes to a Democrat since 1976.
PPP's Tom Jensen says McCain gained significantly among Democrats and whites in the past week.
If that trend continues, Jensen says, McCain will win N.C.
But, says Jensen: “Obama has the upper hand for a 1- to 2-point victory based on so many of his supporters already having turned out to cast a ballot for him.”
His prediction – for now: Obama by 50,000 votes or less.
The game plan
The topic of the day Monday – and likely today: taxes. McCain is finding some polling traction in painting Obama as a tax-raising liberal and will hammer that message hard in Pennsylvania and in Fayetteville.
Obama opted for the big picture speech Monday in Ohio, talking about economic hope and the future.
Look for him to go at the tax message more directly in Pennsylvania and Virginia today.
Poll of the day
State
North Carolina
Pollster
Public Policy Polling
Numbers
U.S. Senate: Kay Hagan (D) 48, Elizabeth Dole (R) 45, Christopher Cole (L) 4.
Details
1,038 likely voters; margin of error +/- 2.8 percentage points
What it means
Hagan wins her seventh consecutive weekly PPP poll, but her lead drops from seven points to three.
New N.C. governor poll numbers will be released today.
No way this state goes blue. I have no idea why McCain is even here. He should spend his time on real battleground states.
I have consistently laughed at the notion (and accompanying polls) that Obama has a big lead in PA. The actions of both campaigns tell me otherwise. I just have been disappointed before. But it’s looking very good, not only for McCain/Palin to win but for the GOP to grab back some House seats.
Have you three seen the early numbers from Texas. Very encouraging for the GOP!! From a trend perspective, not because TX was in danger of going Dem. But it’s also good news, because the GOP has an excellent chance of getting Delay’s seat (TX-22) back. Maybe even TX-23, although I have my doubts.
Yes. ACORN was not as effective as they initially believed.
He's trying to push Elizabeth Dole across the finish line.
If Bush was ahead by 3 in NC and won by 12 then we can assume a McCain lead of 1 means he should carry NC with at least 53 or 54%. Well we can hope anyway.
The PPP poll is pure bull, it has a sample of 48% Dem in NC and 35% Dem, which is a joke, the state make is not that at all.
NC is McCains.
If the PPP poll has that sample of 48% Dem and Obama is on 49% and that McCain is on 48% with a 35% Dem sample, McCain will win NC by a mile.
Based on how this is playing out right now I think Coleman and Dole will both win.
Then I also have to wonder about the weights in the Senate race as well. Could Dole really be up?
Amen to that. As Rush has advised: "a united, committed, enthusiastic, can't-wait-to-get-to-the-polls, grassroots willing-to-do-whatever-it-takes-to-get-out-the-vote, Republican conservative base does not lose. They only lose when they are dispirited and don't show up. We outnumber the left. Don't dispute it."
Absolutely, McCain and Dole will win in NC convincingly.
Theres no way Obama and the Dems win in NC, it just aint going to happen.
Ditto. Any obama lead in NC was simply a ruse and nothing more. OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, IN will all go with McCain. If PA goes red, it will be over. Otherwise, the election will be decided in NH and/or CO.
McCain, on the other hand...
Well, my state is in the bag for McCain, so I don’t have too worry where we are headed. Jeff Sessions is my senator and he is in the bag. So, I don’t have too worry about my state going Obama for prez or the commie running against Sessions. I think your senator is in trouble isn’t she/he? We will see election night.
Bump!
Mitch, hit the NC list?
I don’t think Dole is in trouble......first I’ve heard of it. Heck, I haven’t even heard who’s running against her! Certainly no signs around but Dole’s.
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