Obama holds 4-point lead on McCain (Obama flop sweat starting)

Reuters ^ | 10/28/08 | staff

[pissant]

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrat Barack Obama has a 4-point national lead over Republican John McCain as they head into the final week of the presidential campaign, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

Obama leads McCain by 49 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in the three-day national tracking poll, a slight dip from his 5-point advantage on Monday. The telephone poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

[Names Ash Housewares]

Not seeing the big lead in early voting for Obama that he needs either. At least as far as what I have seen.

[FastCoyote]

[When you see a poll that says McCain is down by 10 points in a battleground state like Virginia — ask yourself how that jibes with a national poll that says he’s down by 4 points.]

Good question. Since we know Obama is a God in populous states like NY and Ca, something has to give if overall he only has a 4 percent lead.

[MATSEVAH]

Well all I have to say on November 4th America will vote ,if America choses Obama I don't want one Obama supporter to cry when (1)jobs are lost (2)We have no more rights (3)their sons and daughters in the military won't have weapons to fight with because the homosexual in the House wants to cut defense sending (4)A bomb goes off in a public school and a bunch of kids are killed because they elected someone into office who is supported by a bunch of terrorist(5)they can't send their kids to school or pay bills because they are paying higher taxes.I'm sure there is more I have not mention.!!!!!!

[D-fendr]

Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/83336.shtml

[Ol' Sparky]

When you see a poll that says McCain is down by 10 points in a battleground state like Virginia — ask yourself how that jibes with a national poll that says he’s down by 4 points.

The national polls are always ahead of state polls. So, if McCain can sustain momentum, expect the state polls to narrow.

[techno]

Rasmussen came out with a poll today that says that McCain is only trailing Obama by 4 points in Virginia.

[latina4dubya]

Well I want Mccain and Palin but I dont think it’s going to happen

it'll happen... nothing is over at this point...

[RedMonqey]

Am I the only one that thinks that if Obama wins it will be the last election?

I know that's been a theme in many threads on FR but I think that's quite a bit pessimistic.

As bad as things are, I don't see a Zimbabwe type situation here. He won't have the military and there's just to many gun s in the private sector.That doesn't mean he and Congress couldn't foul things up so bad that America cannot recover. But that would take at least ten years to totally collapse and demoralize Americans to that point.

Comparisons to Nazi Germany should acknowledge it was ten years between the time of Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch in 1923 and the Nazi' actual control of Germany's Government. Obama would need a Weimar Republic type regime( 1919 to 1933)an actual depression, and the total failure of the War on Terror to bring us to that crisis point.

And an European mindset in fads, i.e, ".....isms(communism, socialism, fascism, etc.)

As Americans, We're not at that point ....yet, IMHO.

However keep yer powder dry.

[Irish Eyes]

Well I want Mccain and Palin but I dont think it’s going to happen America is in for 4 very bad years 8 years of Bush will not be nothing compare to 4 years of Obama Betus.com has Obama at -900 for those who bet you know how bad this is , it’s time to start praying.!!!!

We had all better pray hard and drag everyone you know to the polls.

It will not be another 4 years at the minimum

IT WILL BE THREE APPOINTMENTS TO THE USSC WITH A TERM FOR LIFE !!!!

[kesg]

According to Zogby, Obama had a big night last night (mentioned inside the Reuters write up). I have no idea how that can be when Obama dropped a point.

Who knows. Zogby claims that he is polling 400 people a day. The margin of error on a sample size this small is a whopping 4.9 percent -- meaning literally that whatever numbers for Obama or McCain he comes up with, they could be off by as much as 5 points in either direction (and ditto for undecideds as well).

Zogby's top line numbers are not crazy (although they look suspiciously like Gallup's top line numbers for its "traditional" LV model). But I simply don't trust his methodology.

[Sun]

Sarah is now being Sarah, and ignoring the former Bush handlers (I hear).

So I give her the credit for this:

“IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Fifteen
Posted Monday, October 27, 2008

After seesawing between 3.2 and 3.9 points over the weekend, Obama’s lead slipped to 2.8 Monday. Battleground also has Obama up 3, and other polls have tightened, including Rasmussen, Zogby and Gallup to 5. Some polls show swings in independents, but IBD/TIPP has them in a stable, 5-point range.”

excerpt http://ibdeditorials.com/PollsMain.aspx

[PaRep]

Karl On Quinn & Rose Morning show Just Said That R Internals Have McCain ahead Nationally 50 to 41 Barr 2% & Nader 1%

Pa. R Internals Have McCain ahead 51 to 38

Minnesota R Internals McCain Just Went ahead 45 to 44

[Fresh Wind]

a slight dip from his 5-point advantage on Monday

A 20% dip from his 5-point advantage on Monday

[Paul_B]

I think there will be further elections, but they will be shams. Indeed, this election is perilously close to being a sham, because of the media’s shameless raw manipulation of public opinion. Add in the Fairness Doctrine and other abominations, and there’s not much left to the electoral process. The power-hungry elites will have won. Obama must be stopped now, or the nation plunges down a slippery slope from which, save the mercy and grace of God, there is no return.

[olrtex]

Whoever that “Karl” was also has a bridge he would like to sell to you.

[ConstantConservative]

I heard that, where did he get those numbers?

I don’t know how these polls can be all over the place. With us so far behind in everyone other poll, how could the internals be showing us this?

I mean, if we’re winning in Minnesota, we’re winning in: VA, OH, FL, NC, NH, MA(parts), NV, CO, PA, and probably NM.

If we’re winning in MN, then we’re winning this thing handily!

[cookcounty]

"Seem to recall Zogs had Obama up double digits last week."

Stand back!.....Rightward bound Express Train.....comin' through!

[cookcounty]

"Seem to recall Zogs had Obama up double digits last week."

Those are week-old polls. That was when Zog was saying it was 11 points nationally. So subtract 7 from Obama onll those stale state polls you're reading.

[MrB]

Again, without the weighting numbers,

these poll numbers are meaningless.

I tend to adjust the numbers according to the overweighting of Dems. There just aren’t 7% more Dems that are going to vote. If they have more, it’s more like 3%.

[Sun]

“Karl On Quinn & Rose Morning show Just Said That R Internals Have McCain ahead Nationally 50 to 41 Barr 2% & Nader 1%

Pa. R Internals Have McCain ahead 51 to 38

Minnesota R Internals McCain Just Went ahead 45 to 44”

How come Karl seems so pessimistic, or so I heard.