Slight lead? Then McCain has NH in the bag.
C’mon John let’s get these 4 EVs for safe measure - this week will see Missouri, Nevada, NC, Florida and Virginia safely back into the fold. The day before election will see Ohio - Colorado to me is the real question mark in this election. I’ve written off New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Iowa (why he’s there still boggles me some)
So did they over poll Dems by 8 or 9, 10?
The AP calling this a ‘slim lead?’ Do I sense fairness and objectivity from the AP??? That’s a first. Usually, when Obama is up by 5, the media acts as if its an insurmountable lead and that McCain may as well just give up.
Key word “Marist”
enough said....
McCain is going to win.
..
Assuming McCain wins NH, Obama wins PA, and Obama flips NM and IA, then holding all the other states constant from ‘04, Obama could force a tie by winning Colorado. Of course, there’s still Maine’s 2nd congressional district.
If Mac wins NH, then I think that’s the harbinger of an interesting election night. A McCain win in PA and basically it’s over. Mac could lose IA, NM, CO, and VA and still win if he wins PA. But if he wins PA then he’ll win VA.
..McCain’s success in 2000 and 2008 indicates that he has a lot of connections in the state—he’ll win NH IMO...
Weighted polls and the Bradley effect. I think they may be running scared and that’s why biden went ballistic when the reporters didn’t follow the script. Looks like they’re in panic mode. I hope so.
Ras has it at 4. Marist at 5. It may be less. If Mac pushes extra hard in this final stretch we will win.
So after factoring in all the illegals, dead people and cartoon characters that will be voting I predict a win for J 144 to 93.
+ or - 8 points.
New Hampshire has the highest proportion of white voters of any state. It was also the state with the largest margin of error for all of the pollsters in the Democrat primary.
not directed at you chet but I would not call a 5 point lead slight
our last two elections were a fraction of that
that said I think either the race or the polling ...has tightened
like Biden’s spincter probably did before he got that first call from Barry after Biden told the world Obama’s inexperience would invite a threat to the US
Could I ask a question: With almost everyone having a cell phone these days and many people do NOT have a land line; how accurate are all these polls?
Help me out here; anybody.
Could I ask a question: With almost everyone having a cell phone these days and many people do NOT have a land line; how accurate are all these polls?
Help me out here; anybody.
New Hampshire (or, why I’m going to demonstrate that this poll is meaningless no matter what it says):
2004: 50-49 Kerry
2000: 48-47 Bush
1996: 49-49 (combining Dole and Perot totals together)
2004 exit poll: D25, R32, I44 (56-42 Kerry, who ran as a New Englander and favorite son, being from neighboring Massachusetts and all that), with 95% of electorate consisting of white voters (versus 77% nationally). Oh, and 38% Catholic, as opposed to 27% nationally. Bush won that vote against Catholic John Kerry 52-47 in NH (same as the national average). FYI.
McCain is going to win New Hampshire, 51-49 or something like that. He is much better positioned to win this state than Southerner Bush was against New Englander, favorite son, and Catholic John Kerry. Plus, he won the NH back in February while Obama substantially underperformed his poll numbers in the primary against Hillary.
New Hampshire (or, why I’m going to demonstrate that this poll is meaningless no matter what it says):
2004: 50-49 Kerry
2000: 48-47 Bush
1996: 49-49 (combining Dole and Perot totals together)
2004 exit poll: D25, R32, I44 (56-42 Kerry, who ran as a New Englander and favorite son, being from neighboring Massachusetts and all that), with 95% of electorate consisting of white voters (versus 77% nationally). Oh, and 38% Catholic, as opposed to 27% nationally. Bush won that vote against Catholic John Kerry 52-47 in NH (same as the national average). FYI.
McCain is going to win New Hampshire, 51-49 or something like that. He is much better positioned to win this state than Southerner Bush was against New Englander, favorite son, and Catholic John Kerry. Plus, he won the NH back in February while Obama substantially underperformed his poll numbers in the primary against Hillary.
McCain is going to win New Hampshire.