Assuming McCain wins NH, Obama wins PA, and Obama flips NM and IA, then holding all the other states constant from ‘04, Obama could force a tie by winning Colorado. Of course, there’s still Maine’s 2nd congressional district.
If Mac wins NH, then I think that’s the harbinger of an interesting election night. A McCain win in PA and basically it’s over. Mac could lose IA, NM, CO, and VA and still win if he wins PA. But if he wins PA then he’ll win VA.
With jackass murtha to help.
Assuming McCain wins NH, Obama wins PA, and Obama flips NM and IA, then holding all the other states constant from ‘04, Obama could force a tie by winning Colorado. Of course, there’s still Maine’s 2nd congressional district.
Uh, your math is off here.
Fauxbama is down 19 EC votes if you use the 2004 election as your basis. If he takes IA and NM that only gives him 12 EC votes up, ic McCain takes NH and PA, that means Fuaxbama must not only find 7 more EC votes, but also the 21 for PA and 5 for NH, 9 in CO is not nearly enough.
If McCain takes PA and NH, Fauxbama has to take 45 EC votes from states, and that means McCain could give up not only CO and IA, but NM, NV and VA or NC and McCain still wins.