also, he told me that we want to see McCain start breaking over 46% in gallup and rasmussen...
he is a math/stat freak
I can’t believe the audacity of Obama to build a big victory stage in Grant Park in Chicago for his victory celebration on election night. I know he expects to win, but, does he expect to give a prime time victory speech that night? The early returns from the eastern states are going to give us some clues as to how things are going. If McCain can carry Pennsylvania and hold onto Virginia and North Carolina, for example, Obama may have a very long night to wait before he comes out to declare victory the way he wants to. If McCain also can win Florida, it will be a long night for both campaigns before we see final results.
Or does Obama just want a gathering of the faithful just to say “Hi” to everyone?
I can’t believe this business of Obama and huge crowds. He had to move his convention speech to a stadium, and his election night appearance has to be in a public park where 100,000+ can squeeze in.
The polls are pathetic. If they need to put 0 over 50% they will to discourage republicans from voting...these polls are a joke.
he is a math/stat freak
If these polls have just been running cover for Obama than they have GOT to start breaking for McCain soon or IMO it’s not the reason they have McCain down so far. McCain has GOT to get above 46% and get closer to 50%. If things stay the same then either these pollsters are REALLY dumb and don’t care about their businesses in the future or McCain really does have problems. If McCain has not moved UP above 46% by mid to late week, well....You choose why.
The polls are very much over sampling dems, so who knows if Obama will ever be 50 or under.
The gap is a bit too wide, BUT the high undecideds is a big TELL that something is up, and the premise that undecideds are McCain-leaners who’d rather not admit it makes sense, especially given the liberal MSM, politically correct view about being against Obama is racism. The voters are not racist, they are just being coy.
McCain is consistently holding on to more GOP voters than Obama is holding onto Dem voters, which is not what you see in a landslide. There are not many GOP defections.
One race, which this is like, is Corker v Ford, and the Slat articel says Ford got 20% of undecideds. If you do that analysis, even with a 47% to 43% 4 point lead for Obama, with 1% undecideds, it becomes a 51% to 49% McCain win. A 5 pt lead is really a close race.
The main issue is Republican party strength and Republican party turnout. If the prospect of a 100% liberal-left Democrat Federal Govt scares enough centrist and conservative voters, we may get a reaction that closes the gap considerably, perhaps even enough for McCain to win.
McCain/Palin 08