Posted on 10/26/2008 6:13:00 PM PDT by Chet 99
Oct. 27, 2008 | As his campaign manager has described it, John McCain is now looking at a "narrow-victory scenario." "The fact that we're in the race at all," added Steve Schmidt, "is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong."
But talk of miracles and head winds aside, I think John McCain really does have a decent shot at winning, and that's not just because I'm a longtime Republican political operative. Despite what the polls seem to be saying, a closer look at the numbers shows that a Democratic victory is not a foregone conclusion. Why? Because if history is any guide, Barack Obama, as an African-American candidate for political office, needs to be polling consistently above 50 percent to win. And in crucial battleground states, he isn't.
Much has been written about the so-called Bradley Effect, in which voters lie to pollsters about whether they're willing to vote for a black candidate. The Bradley Effect is meant to explain why, for example, Doug Wilder had a healthy 9-point lead up to Election Day in the 1989 Virginia governor's race, and a similar lead in exit polling, only to squeak through to victory by one-half of 1 percent. But I'm not talking about voters telling pollsters they're going to support Candidate A when they're really going to vote for Candidate B. There are two other ways in which voters can mislead pollsters about their intentions. One is to decline to participate in a poll. (More than one expert has suggested that conservatives are more likely to decline than liberals, meaning there could be many uncounted McCain voters.) The other is when pollsters participate in a poll but withhold information.
(Excerpt) Read more at salon.com ...
If these polls have just been running cover for Obama than they have GOT to start breaking for McCain soon or IMO it’s not the reason they have McCain down so far. McCain has GOT to get above 46% and get closer to 50%. If things stay the same then either these pollsters are REALLY dumb and don’t care about their businesses in the future or McCain really does have problems. If McCain has not moved UP above 46% by mid to late week, well....You choose why.
I wasn’t paying much mind to the Bradley effect. Then I started noticing all the “undecideds” in the polls. The number seemed so large for this late in the game and then it dawned on me...that might be the Bradley effect. Tell a pollster you’re undecided rather than say you’re not voting for Obama. What other explanation can there be for the high percentage of undecideds a little more than a week before the election.
I read the entire article. EXCELLENT!
Excellent article and on Salon??? that’s a shocker.
the key is here in PA.
McCain must win PA-that is why he has 4 rallies here this week.
we are hoping in 12th district to upset Murtha.
3 votes in this house for Russell and McPalin.
But, those people vote Democrat anyhow.
Here is a simple way to see who will win this election.
Take every Red state where Hillary beat Obama in the primary and see if it is a state in play. Put that state in McCain’s column.
Any state that Obama won in the primary, change into a tossup.
This is probably a more realistic picture then the polls.
No, he’s going to make a big show no matter what the partial returns say that night. This guy has chutzpah out the wazoo. He is the creation of hype and image-over-substance. He represents the final triumph of “virtual reality,” of lying, scheming, filthy rotten propaganda, so of course he has to have a huge victory gala regardless of how the actual election returns stand.
He will declare victory on some basis (exit polls or just plain truther-conspiracy) or another so that (1) if the actual returns do make him Prez, he can rub our noses in it and his victory gala will then be valorized or (2) if the actual returns make John McCain prez Obama can call out the thugs to lay waste to Chicago where just the night before he celebrated.
Even if the returns are leaning toward McCain at 9pm, he will nonetheless take the stage and assure everyone that the returns are lies, just another chapter in Whitey’s suppression of black franchise, in Big Bad Republican Corporate Capitalist Swindler’s trampling of the little guy. In other words, he will start the process of delegitimizing McCain, even if McCain wins, before the returns are even in, to set the switches for the Demonrats four-year assault on McCain even before the votes are counted. In other words, prepare yourselves for the kind of “Bush stole the election” stuff we’ve heard for 8 years to begin even before the votes are counted, if McCain is eking out a victory. If McCain is behind in the partial returns, then His Lordship will only need to state the obvious. (If then later results turn things around, well, he’s got his plan B—”we wuz robbed—go burn down Whitey’s and Capitalist Pig’s businesses and homes.)
I live in Chicago. I’m damn scared. I’m scared of what an Obama victory will mean for generations to come. And I’m scared of what a McCain victory will mean that night or the next few days.
And our ability to defend ourselves has been taken from us by our godawful Mayor.
The polls are very much over sampling dems, so who knows if Obama will ever be 50 or under.
But, Axlerod has not been able to close the deal with his Black, Muslim, Marxist, Racist candidate, Hussein Obama.
This is NOT you ordinary “Black” candidate.
“The fact that we’re in the race at all,” added Steve Schmidt, “is a miracle. Because the environment is so bad and the head wind is so strong.”
Old Sarge: Oh, I don’t know, it couldn’t have anything to do with SARAH, could it?
Exactly. Sarah is the miracle Schmidt was referring to. Thank God for her.
We saw this we Kerry... we see this with McCain... we even saw it happen to the Hilda-beast.
CONSERVATIVES SHOULD NOT TELL ANY TRUTHS ABOUT THEMSELVES TO POLLSTERS OR ANY LEFTIST.
I've been open about my politics in the workplace and been derided many times in my life including college.... it has been a trend my whole life to where my politics is only open to friends and family. I lie to the leftist at work for self preservation. Why Not Nationally?
Beat the pollster-libs at their own game. :)
The gap is a bit too wide, BUT the high undecideds is a big TELL that something is up, and the premise that undecideds are McCain-leaners who’d rather not admit it makes sense, especially given the liberal MSM, politically correct view about being against Obama is racism. The voters are not racist, they are just being coy.
McCain is consistently holding on to more GOP voters than Obama is holding onto Dem voters, which is not what you see in a landslide. There are not many GOP defections.
One race, which this is like, is Corker v Ford, and the Slat articel says Ford got 20% of undecideds. If you do that analysis, even with a 47% to 43% 4 point lead for Obama, with 1% undecideds, it becomes a 51% to 49% McCain win. A 5 pt lead is really a close race.
The main issue is Republican party strength and Republican party turnout. If the prospect of a 100% liberal-left Democrat Federal Govt scares enough centrist and conservative voters, we may get a reaction that closes the gap considerably, perhaps even enough for McCain to win.
McCain/Palin 08
agree and rallies that turn into riots.
my car already with minor damage because of nobama bumpersticker.
Dont’ live where I work. This happened in Pittsburgh.
Exactly right, if they don't turnout this year there is nobody to turn out.
If McCain wins, our democracy and our freedom will be more secure.
The Dow will go up 1,000 points in a week, mark my word.
The liberal MSM heads will explode. Riots? Look on the bright side, those are the places run by Democrats, let them clean up their own mess.
The REAL mess would be if there is a close election a la 2000. Imagine if the margin of difference in Ohio is a bunch of ACORN votes!
Huh?
I’m still praying that Obama’s “victory lap” in Chicago on election night turns out to be a fiasco just as OJ’s “acquittal party” he had planned for the end of his recent trial in Vegas.
Instead of an acquital party he got sent back to the slammer to await sentencing. I hope Obama gets to enjoy the ambiance of his grandiose set-up in Grant Park while watching the returns come in for McCain-Palin.
And may he enjoy giving his concession announcement from Grant Park, too, Dear Lord? Thank you. Amen.
There is also Operation Chaos that has skewed the registered number of Democrats which a lot of pollsters modify their results.
AMEN to THAT!
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