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Why OBAMA will lose PA (Pflouffe gives away faulty turnout assumptions)
Fox News | 10/24/08 | Thane Banquo

Posted on 10/24/2008 7:56:05 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo

Earlier this evening FoxNews ran a piece quoting David Pflouffe (read "poof") saying that the Obama camp couldn't figure out why McCain was campaigning in PA. Pfloufe said that in order for McCain to win PA, he would have to win 20% of Democrats, 95% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents.

So I calculated, based on 2004 PA turnout of 41% Democrats, 39% Republicans, and 20% Independents, what kind of edge that would give McCain.

If McCain managed to pull off such a feat, he would win 57%-43%, a 14 pt margin! If McCain wins PA by 14 pts, he'd probably win every other state but Illinois!

So then I decided to find out the DEM-GOP spread necessary to come up with Pflouffe's scenario. In other words, I wanted to see what kind of DEM turnout Pfloufe was expecting in order to have McCain just barely edge out Obama by winning 20% of D's, 95% of R's, and 60% of I's

In order for McCain to actually need that kind of result, Pfloufe must be expecting Dem turnout to be roughly 20 pts higher than GOP turnout in Pennsylvania!

If they actually think that's going to happen on election day, the Obama camp is going to be very disappointed.

The point? Now we see who is feeding these faulty Dem turnout assumptions to the major pollsters


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Pennsylvania
KEYWORDS: mccain; obama; pa2008; pflouffe
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To: Recovering_Democrat

But they only lie to “help” the “common man”.


21 posted on 10/24/2008 8:05:34 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Cowardice is forever!)
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To: Ingtar

no...2004 was even, in 2006 was a 3% dem advantage, and a lot of dem candidates ran as conservatives, and our base stayed home.


22 posted on 10/24/2008 8:05:39 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Thane_Banquo
Pretty good with the math. From what we've seen so far voter turnout is the same as in 2004. Both sides dead even. The Democrats would need a turnout like in 2006 and they're not getting it.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

23 posted on 10/24/2008 8:06:15 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Thane_Banquo




YES TO MCCAIN-PALIN '08 FOR AMERICA





SARAH PALIN DRAWING HUGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA







http://www.jeffhead.com/joeplumber.htm


24 posted on 10/24/2008 8:06:33 PM PDT by Jeff Head (Freedom is not free...never has been, never will be. (www.dragonsfuryseries.com))
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To: Thane_Banquo

I love you being a math geek as well! Thanks for the truth!


25 posted on 10/24/2008 8:07:45 PM PDT by PhiKapMom ( BOOMER SOONER -- VOTE FOR McCAIN/PALIN2008! LetsGetThisRight.com)
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To: Thane_Banquo

We love that you are, too ;-) Good analysis.

Again proving there are lies, damned lied, and statistics!


26 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:14 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: Norman Bates
The party numbers are surprising in the face of two unpopular wars and an unpopular Republican President. When you consider that and a weak economy, Obama should own this election. Instead he's LOSING in early voting in my state of Colorado!

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

27 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:15 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Hones
20% D’s here going for McCain is no stretch.

True. But 95% of Repubs going for McCain is.

Survey USA poll out today has the following: 73% of GOPers for McCain, 75% of Dems for Obama, with independents breaking 54-33% for Obama.

28 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:29 PM PDT by Alter Kaker (Gravitation is a theory, not a fact. It should be approached with an open mind...)
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To: Ingtar

How much has affiliation changed since 2006 do you think?


29 posted on 10/24/2008 8:08:41 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Thane_Banquo

Cool. Neat analysis. I was trying to come up with a methodlogy for states Hillary won like FL, PA, OH and MI.

She got 50% in FL, Obama got 32% and Edwards got 14%. Repubs had 200,000 more votes. I think Obama will get less than 80% of Edwards & Hill voters in FL. Obama should be toast in FL.

Anyone know how big the Italian-American Rizzo Dems are around Philly these days? They were a powerhouse.

I would guess lower numbers than in the past but still a fairly large number. My guess is with Bishop Martino speaking up about abortion that Obama will get very few of their votes. The fact that Obama could be a Muslim or non-American will also help.

I also think Rendell and the Clintons will do nothing. I hope if Obama hands out “walking around money” that Rendell and his pals just pocket it. The Clintons & Rendell want to show Obama that Philly can play tougher hardball than Chicago.

On the other side of the state the clingers/rednecks/racists will also smash Obama. Murtha fired them up. McCain should win PA.


30 posted on 10/24/2008 8:09:29 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Think free or die

Here in Westmoreland County, I am now seeing new white McCain/Palin signs in yards that read “Another Democrat for McCalin*Palin” I counted only 2 signs for Obama on a 2 mile stretch of old Route 30 that always had plenty of Kerry and Gore signs.


31 posted on 10/24/2008 8:09:57 PM PDT by SkyHawk
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To: Alter Kaker

I think we R’s ALWAYS have a healthy percentage of malcontents who protest the election. I don’t know if it’s any larger or smaller this election.


32 posted on 10/24/2008 8:10:22 PM PDT by riri
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To: Norman Bates

The most I would be willing to give the Democrats is a 2% edge. That alone is high for the last couple decades. The normal margins in Illinois, Pennsylvania, California, and New York easily make up that 2%, by the way.


33 posted on 10/24/2008 8:11:01 PM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! And the white-haired guy too, I suppose. '08)
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To: Alter Kaker
If Obama is getting 75% of Dems, then he's in trouble. He can't win with that even with two thirds of Independents breaking for him. That is if the Survey USA figures are really accurate.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

34 posted on 10/24/2008 8:11:45 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Asceticon

Any feeling for Italian-Americans in Philly and Bishop Martino speaking about abortion. Are Italian-American still a large voting bloc there?

The Bishop is being as aggressive as he can getting the point acorss without naming names.

My guess is Italian-American Dems near Philly will not vote Obama.


35 posted on 10/24/2008 8:12:44 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: CSI007
"I bet he was just pulling those numbers out his ass."

EWWWWWWWWWWW!

36 posted on 10/24/2008 8:13:03 PM PDT by kimchi lover (Joe the Plumber is my Homeboy!)
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To: goldstategop

Go check out this link.

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/

Are these the absentee ballots, early voting or what?


37 posted on 10/24/2008 8:14:08 PM PDT by 1035rep
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To: Thane_Banquo

All through the primaries Mac jumped 5 pts on the last day and Obummer dropped against Hilary anywhere from 5-15pts. These polls are complete fraud.

Pray for W, McCain and Our Troops


38 posted on 10/24/2008 8:14:20 PM PDT by bray (It's the Corruption Stupid)
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To: Frantzie

Been wondering about the leak of the PA poll on the 14th, followed by the leak of Rendell’s emails and “nervous” statement. He asked 0bama to campaign with the Clintons, with three stops in Western PA.

Now 0bama can’t do that exactly, because it will be admitting that Rendell was right and they were in trouble. And if the Clinton’s come up with some cheap excuse, like the Zoroastrian New Year, to not campaign in PA, then it will be an effective Clinton endorsement of the PUMA pack. Could Rendell be putting the fix in?

Or could he just really be nervous? Probably the latter, but the former is more fun to think about.


39 posted on 10/24/2008 8:14:39 PM PDT by Thane_Banquo (Barney Frank is a Fannie bandit.)
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To: Thane_Banquo

I really detest seeing David Pflouffe on TV. He is just so full of himself and has that “Oh so superior than you” demeanor. He’s really irritating.


40 posted on 10/24/2008 8:15:28 PM PDT by chris_bdba
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