Arctic Sea Ice Analysis (Freeper Pool--When Will 2008 Arctic Sea Ice Exceed 1979-2000 Average?)

National Snow and Ice Data Center ^ | October 24,2008

[gusopol3]

Arctic sea ice reflects sunlight, keeping the polar regions cool and moderating global climate. According to scientific measurements, Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically over at least the past thirty years, with the most extreme decline seen in the summer melt season.

Read timely scientific analysis year-round below. We provide an update during the first week of each month, or more frequently as conditions warrant.

Please credit the National Snow and Ice Data Center for image or content use unless otherwise noted beneath each image.

[gusopol3]

my guess November 15

[Prophet in the wilderness]

When the sun get’s done what it’s doing, that effects not only our planet, but, the other planets as well.

[dirtbiker]

According to scientific measurements, Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically over at least the past thirty years, with the most extreme decline seen in the summer melt season.

Ya THINK!

We have the same thing happen here in VA, too, but most of the snow is gone by spring....

[gusopol3]

it’s clear that the global warming crowd had used this data to provide “hard evidence” of the polar ice cap disappearing, but the data looks like it will turn around and bite them hard this winter.

[xcamel]

"According to scientific measurements.."

Who, how, by what standards?

Satellite data shows something quite different.

[Tarpon]

Isn’t it a little strange that the period of Arctic Sea Ice melt is the same as the current modern solar maxima? And isn’t it odd when that period ends, that Arctic Sea Ice starts increasing. It’s like something strange is at work here.

Pretty soon, if the current trend continues, it will be getting cold enough that even the dumbest among us will realize something is up.

[ETL]

Volcanic eruptions reshape Arctic ocean floor: study
June 25, 2008 | AFP

Recent massive volcanoes have risen from the ocean floor deep under the Arctic ice cap, spewing plumes of fragmented magma into the sea, scientists who filmed the aftermath reported Wednesday.

The eruptions -- as big as the one that buried Pompei -- took place in 1999 along the Gakkel Ridge, an underwater mountain chain snaking 1,800 kilometres (1,100 miles) from the northern tip of Greenland to Siberia.

Scientists suspected even at the time that a simultaneous series of earthquakes were linked to these volcanic spasms.

But when a team led of scientists led by Robert Sohn of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts finally got a first-ever glimpse of the ocean floor 4,000 meters (13,000 feet) beneath the Arctic pack ice, they were astonished.

What they saw was unmistakable evidence of explosive eruptions rather than the gradual secretion of lava bubbling up from Earth's mantle onto the ocean floor.

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gRI87Fyr-TpE6OBYfAcYxFKSXRJg

________________________________________________________________

From Ohio State University News, Dec 2007...

EARTH'S HEAT ADDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE TO MELT GREENLAND ICE

COLUMBUS , Ohio -- Scientists have discovered what they think may be another reason why Greenland 's ice is melting: a thin spot in Earth's crust is enabling underground magma to heat the ice.

They have found at least one “hotspot” in the northeast corner of Greenland -- just below a site where an ice stream was recently discovered.

The researchers don't yet know how warm the hotspot is. But if it is warm enough to melt the ice above it even a little, it could be lubricating the base of the ice sheet and enabling the ice to slide more rapidly out to sea.

http://researchnews.osu.edu/archive/hotgreen.htm

________________________________________________________________

Movie: "The Land That Time Forgot"

"Negotiating an underwater tunnel [beneath the ice] to gain the island's interior, those aboard U-33 are amazed to discover a tropical prehistoric world kept warm by volcanic forces. Here dinosaurs that should be long extinct live and roam, as do a curious race of humanoid savages that appear to exhibit all the various phases of Man's evolutionary development. To survive long enough to repair and replenish the U-boat, wartime enemies must put aside their differences and cooperate with one another. But not everyone is playing from the Kumbaya songbook... The Land That Time Forgot is a thoroughly old fashioned sci-fi/fantasy adventure of the type they weren't really making anymore even in 1975. A lot of this has to do with the script sticking to Burroughs' Victorian style. (His Caprona tales were first published in 1918; as late as World War II he'd still be cranking out novels in the writing style of the 19th Century.) The film's a throwback to the likes of the original King Kong and potboilers such as Unknown Island (1948) and The Land Unknown (1957), only in color."
http://www.eccentric-cinema.com/cult_movies/land_time_forgot.htm

[Beowulf9]

The K7RA Solar Update

Visible sunspots continued last week for eight days straight, the longest continuous period of sunspot visibility since the 12 days of March 23April 3 last year. Sunspot numbers for October 16-22 were 24, 11, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 5. The 10.7 cm flux was 71.9, 70, 69.2, 69.6, 69.2, 68.8 and 67.7 with a mean of 69.5. The estimated planetary A indices were 4, 2, 1, 6, 2, 3 and 5 with a mean of 3.3. The estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 1, 1, 5, 2, 3 and 5 with a mean of 3.1.

This week, a solar wind stream is headed our way, and may strike October 28. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) places the predicted effect slightly later, with predicted planetary A index for October 27-November 1 at 5, 8, 12, 15, 10 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for October 24, quiet to unsettled October 25, quiet October 26-27, quiet to unsettled October 28, unsettled to active October 29 and unsettled October 30.

http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2008/10/24/10407/?nc=1

[gusopol3]

that T. Rex looks like a Macy’s parade balloon.

[ETL]

Isn’t it a little strange that the period of Arctic Sea Ice melt is the same as the current modern solar maxima? And isn’t it odd when that period ends, that Arctic Sea Ice starts increasing.

If you look at the chart below, you will see that sunspot activity (during solar maxes--the individual peaks) has been relatively high since about 1900 and almost non-existent for the period between about 1625 and 1725. This period is known as the Maunder (sunspot) Minimum or "Little Ice Age".

From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
"A new [2004] analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer."..."In particular, it has been noted that between about 1645 and 1715, few sunspots were seen on the Sun's surface. This period is called the Maunder Minimum after the English astronomer who studied it. It coincided with a spell of prolonged cold weather often referred to as the "Little Ice Age". Solar scientists strongly suspect there is a link between the two events - but the exact mechanism remains elusive."
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3869753.stm

It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all.

But the main arguments being made for a solar-climate connection is not so much to do with the heat of the Sun but rather with its magnetic cycles. When the Sun is more magnetically active (typically around the peak of the 11 year sunspot cycle --we are a few yrs away at the moment), the Sun's magnetic field is better able to deflect away incoming galactic cosmic rays (highly energetic charged particles coming from outside the solar system). The GCRs are thought to help in the formation of low-level cumulus clouds -the type of clouds that BLOCK sunlight and help cool the Earth. So when the Sun's MF is acting up (not like now -the next sunspot max is expected in about 2012), less GCRs reach the Earth's atmosphere, less low level sunlight-blocking clouds form, and more sunlight gets through to warm the Earth's surface...naturally. Clouds are basically made up of tiny water droplets. When minute particles in the atmosphere become ionized by incoming GCRs they become very 'attractive' to water molecules, in a purely chemical sense of the word. The process by which the Sun's increased magnetic field would deflect incoming cosmic rays is very similar to the way magnetic fields steer electrons in a cathode ray tube or electrons and other charged particles around the ring of a subatomic particle accelerator.-ETL

____________________________________________________

There's a relatively new book out on the subject titled The Chilling Stars. It's written by one of the top scientists advancing the theory (Henrik Svensmark).

http://www.sciencedaily.com/books/t/1840468157-the_chilling_stars_the_new_theory_of_climate_change.htm

And here is the website for the place where he does his research:
2008: "The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate

100,000-Year Climate Pattern Linked To Sun's Magnetic Cycles:
ScienceDaily (Jun. 7, 2002) HANOVER, N.H.
Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth's climate history in a new light. Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun's magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles, a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/06/020607073439.htm

From a well-referenced wikipedia.com column (see wiki link for ref 14):
"Sunspot numbers over the past 11,400 years have been reconstructed using dendrochronologically dated radiocarbon concentrations. The level of solar activity during the past 70 years is exceptional — the last period of similar magnitude occurred over 8,000 years ago. The Sun was at a similarly high level of magnetic activity for only ~10% of the past 11,400 years, and almost all of the earlier high-activity periods were shorter than the present episode.[14]"

[14] ^Solanki, Sami K.; Usoskin, Ilya G.; Kromer, Bernd; Schüssler, Manfred & Beer, Jürg (2004), “Unusual activity of the Sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years”, Nature 431: 1084–1087, doi:10.1038/nature02995, . Retrieved on 17 April 2007 , "11,000 Year Sunspot Number Reconstruction". Global Change Master Directory. Retrieved on 2005-03-11.

"Reconstruction of solar activity over 11,400 years. Period of equally high activity over 8,000 years ago marked.
Present period is on [the right]. Values since 1900 not shown."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

[T. P. Pole]

It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all.

Man, I hope that is sarcasm.

[Tarpon]

What’s immediately apparent when you look at these charts is the modern maxima is quite obvious. The head fake ‘end’ given in the 70s which triggered the 70s ice age hysteria is clear.

But now, with the Ap dropping off and the solar wind dying down, it looks real this time. Nothing similar was noted during the 70s ... Cold is coming soon.

[ArchAngel1983]

With all the real life bull $hit going on around us, I find it impossible to believe that people are remotely interested in the various end of the world scenarios i.e., global cooling, global warming, ozone holes, climate change, etc, or whatever the ‘climate crisis’ of the week is. We stand in clear and present danger of losing our country, our heritage, and our children’s future.

[gusopol3]

but this is proof that BO was right, the planet has started to heal from the moment he won the Democratic nomination / (sarc)

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[Aussiebabe]

I would guess November 21.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

October 24, 2008 versus October 24, 1999.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=10&fd=24&fy=1999&sm=10&sd=24&sy=2008

[ETL]

"It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all."

Man, I hope that is sarcasm.

Yes, it was. But it was a quote from another FReeper from months ago. I quoted him/her because I was trying to explain that most scientists who see a solar connection to 'global warming' do not believe that it is a direct result of the Sun putting out more heat, but rather in it's periodically changing magnetic field and the effect that has on repelling cosmic rays. CRs, charged particles from deep space, are deflected away from the Earth much like electrons in an old TV picture tube are (by a magnetic field). The scientists think there is good evidence that the CRs help in the formation of low-lying, cumulus clouds. They believe they do this by ionizing tiny particles in the atmosphere which then attract water droplets. Low-lying cumulous clouds block sunlight and help COOL the planet. So when the sun is magnetically more active (apprx every 11 years -next solar max is due in around 2011 or 2012), less cumulus clouds supposedly develop, more sunlight reaches the Earth's surface, and the Earth warms naturally.

BTW: I messed up on the italics on that earlier post, forgetting to put in the forward slash, and the entire post was converted to italics. I guess I forgot to preview it before sending, or just didn't notice at the time.

[x_plus_one]

What about the massive under-sea volcano eruptions on the floor of the Arctic ocean? The rest of the world is cooling. The Arctic Ocean is warm - could be the eruptions?

[ArchAngel1983]

”but this is proof that BO was right, the planet has started to heal from the moment he won the Democratic nomination / (sarc)”

My Bamba, you’re right! I’d completely forgotten that particular passage from the New Bible. But what can I say it’s being written as we speak. It’s hard to memorize all the passages so early in His ascendancy.

[dr_lew]

... with the most extreme decline seen in the summer melt season.

This means that the summer minimum shows a greater year to year change than the winter maximum. Of course, this has no analogy in temperate climes where the snow disappears entirely every year.