Posted on 10/22/2008 2:24:41 PM PDT by johncocktoasten
Indulge me for a minute with some quick analysis of this exciting poll issued today.
First McCain is shown trailing by 1% on the headline, but if you dive in the actual count where strength of support is gauged, McCain/Palin draws a Likely Voter count of 294 Likely Voters against Obama/Biden Likely Voter Count of 277. This would actually show an edge to McCain 51.5% to 48.5% of responding likely Voters.
Second piece of good news is that Obama has twice the percentage of voters that "Could Change their Mind" 4% to 2%.
Third piece of information that helps is that party ID in this poll ranges between +4% dem and +6% dems, depending on how you count Dem or Rep leaning independents.
Fourth piece of great information is that we can actually quantify the Bradley Effect. 8% of Likely Voter answered that they preferred neither candidate. 5% of likely voter "refused to give their preference" I would assume some of the 8% is PUMA's who refuse to vote either way. But the 5% who refuse to state their preference is your Bradley effect (my opinion).
Last piece of great info, the poll should actually read McCain 44% Obama 43%, as they gave credit of 1% to obama for Nader voters in states where nader is on the ballot, however, in the raw response, the 1% of Nader folks were republican leaners (don't know how to explain that one).
Anyhow, very positive signs here.
Whether or not this poll is real, it is so worth sending to your Obama-drone friends just to irritate them
Juan Williams says this is where the 0bama campaign estimates it as well.
I sure like the LV numbers!!
i looked through it as well earlier today
very good results...and similar to the ibd tipp poll
Gee, think of where he would be polling if he didn’t have Palin on the ticket. At least according to Yahoo, she has become a liability.
You need to include the 4.1% Margin of Error.
I think you misunderstand bradley effect. the bradley effect inflate the black candidate poll numbers, it doesn’t show up as 5% refusing to give preference. Its someone who lies to the pollster who say they will vote for the black candidate when they wont
I like the results.
Two questions though
Would this be considered a small sample size? And what is the MOE?
I will this was in LARGE LETTERS in the middle of Drudge and he would finally remove that stupid “Landslide Like Reagan” quote. It’s been on there all freaking day, give it a rest!
No way that us true.
or any candidate, just sayin not to sound racist.
wow I saw that also! what are they talking about? I cannot believe these liberal outlets.
Agreed. The Bradley effect is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 6 or 7%. Maybe as high as 8 or 9 %. The 5% who refused to answer plus 1 to 3% who outright lie when they say they are voting for O.
What’s the over/under on number of “calls” that the networks will have to pull back due to faulty exit polling? I’d put it at 2.
Folks in the West, please vote no matter what Chris Matthews, Mad-Cow, and Olberman tell you. Pay no attention to the calls.
I almost guarantee they are going to get Pennsylvania and one other state, maybe Virginia, wrong the first time around.
There was an interesting stat I saw that O’s final vote amount was overstated in exit polling by right around 7%.
MOE is 4.1%. As far as sampling size, they said they contacted 1101 Adults, and that 800 were likely voters.
The internal numbers in the poll don’t add up but just using the raw counts they posted shows what I entered. I will say this, normal turnout is between 49% and 55.5% in the past 32 years in presidential elections. 571 likely votes divided by 1101 adults would be a 51.8% turnout. IF you count the 5% who refused to respond that would be 54.5% turnout.
If you figure the refused to answers are 4:1 McCain votes, that gives McCain a 54.2% to 45.8% margin. I have long believed and said on FR that Obama will not get more than 46% of the popular vote.
I will say this though, I went to early vote today in Georgia, and there were pretty good numbers of African Americans showing up to early vote. I would say 35%-40% at the location I was at while I was there. The southern states like NC, SC, GA, FL, and VA are going to be closer than they normally would be due to high turnout in the black vote. However, states like PA, OH, WI, and NH are going to have much better McCain showings. I don’t think they will flip any southern states, and I think McCain will win PA, NH, WI, IA, CO, and NV.
Mark my words, this election will be surprisingly conventional, Obama will get heavy black votes, but will not do anything otherwise. He hasn’t expanded the battlefield at all. Just think about it. He’s in PA and NH (blue states) and in IN, VA, FL, and OH. His job in this election is to flip two states or one big one and hold all the Kerry blue states. He has to campaign in red states or he loses. That is a fact. It doesn’t do any good for him to defend blue states because if he loses two smalls or one big one, he is done.
It’s still there. Ugh!
Yeah, un-effin-believable.
One caveat....
In the tabs, 44% of the polls participants identified themselves as either Evangelical or Born Again. In the 2004 race, 23% of voters were Evangelical/Born Again.
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