Mason-Dixon Poll FL (M-46 O-45); 10/20-10/21 (625 LV); McCain was down two in last poll

Mason-Dixon/PMSNBC ^ | 10/22/08 | Mason-Dixon

[Ravi]

excerpt

[zebrahead]

Exactly right. Gore had this strategy in 2000 when he fell behind late in the race. They attacked Bush on multiple fronts (scaring seniors about Social Security/Medicare, in the infamous Byrd ad accusing Bush of opposing hate crimes, etc.) before dropping the DUI story a few days before the election. McCain needs to make sure the base shows up and has 13 days to keep stoking things and attacking Obama on taxes, inexperience in foreign policy, questionable associations, and even Obama’s admitted cocaine use.

[OPS4]

McCain is ahead in many states, where the MSM has him losing, they fix the polls and promote him all day long!

[impeachedrapist]

I know things are tightening in VA.

I would argue that McCain is pulling away a bit from the Obamessiah in VA.

[pburgh01]

I think Obama’s incessant ads are be being counterproductive. He’s over exposed and giving a chance for people to think long and hard about him. I was at a wing joint and we we had the NFL game of the week on and there was a groan when the first ads came on for Obama. I heard lots of folks making comments, all not very flattering. I do know McCain is sitting on a pile of money for a last minute ad blitz. The strategy has always been hold until you see the whites of their eyes, let Obama overexpose himself and define a clear counter message. America hates being propagandized and loves to look skeptically at being hardsold anything. Funny listening to WPHT on the net every newsbreak always leads off with ...Poll, polls , Obaama leading and the last news story is ...to reiterate Obama leading in polls. Obama right now reminds me of the John Hurt charachter in V for Vendetta....Remember, remember the 5th of November.....

[Common Tator]

This year in Florida the Democrats have registered some 461,000 new voters while Republicans registered approximately 172,000 voters.

The Florida Division of Elections says Republicans now have 4,064,301 registered voters and Democrats have 4,722,076. That gives the Democrats more than 658,000 registered voters than Republicans this year.

Florida now has nearly 1 million more voters than four years ago. The total, including people not registered with any party, is now 11,247,634 registered voters up from 10,301,290 in 2004. There are approximately 2,461,257 Independent voters in Florida.

But how many of those new Democrats were registered by ACORN or one of its affiliates. It is a certainty that the the 172,000 newly registered Republicans are real voters and that nearly all will vote.

So if, as they did in Ohio in 2004, ACORN registered 250,000 fake Democrats and none of them voted, what is or was the purpose? Think about it a second. Say they planned to vote those 250 thousand fake names. It would be hard for one person to vote more than 50 fake names in a day. So that would take 5,000 people organized to vote 250 thousand fake names. Imagine trying to put together an illegal operation that required 5,000 people to each commit crimes that could add up to decades in prison each. What would you have to pay people who would take that risk. And how smart would they have to be to pull off the impersonation.

You ask what about the inner city precincts in Miami where Republicans fear to tread. Why not just steal them the old fashioned way by having the five precinct workers steal them. But Miami black districts have only a fraction of the 451,000 new voters.

But what about the polls if 70 percent of the Democrats are going to vote. Then 70 percent of 4,722,076 registered Democrats is 3,305,453. If 70 percent of Republicans are going to vote then 70 percent of 4,064,301 is 2,845010. If the number of independents voting is 70 percent then 70 percent of 2,461,257 is 1,722,870. Add them up and we will have 3,305,453 Democrats plus 2,845,010 Republicans and 1,722 870 independents for a total of 7,873,333 Florida voters.

And that means 41.9 percent of the voters will be Democrats. So that is where the pollsters are getting that number that 41 to 43 percent of voters will be Democrats. And that is how they give Obama a big lead in the polls. Look at all the positive media stuff about Obama being a sure thing, it comes from flaws in turn out created by ACORN and its affiliates.

But what if it is like Ohio in 2004 and they don't vote those fake voters. It would take 15,000 people to vote all those Florida fake names. I don't think they will try to risk it. Out of the thousands of people it would take to do this, some of them would be willing to squeal to keep from going to prison.

So it looks like we now know the origin of the 38, 39, 41 and 43 percent turn out of Democrats used in the polls. Before Acorn started adding voter names this year Democrat turn out was estimated to be in the mid 30s but as more and more names were registered by ACORN the apparent Democrat turn out went up, up, and up. In Florida the Republican turn out looks like 36 percent and the independents are 22 percent of turn out.

But what if the turn out is actually 36,36, 28... then Obama is hurting, and ACORNS attempt to stampede voters will not have worked. It appears to me that the more they fool the pollsters and make Obama look like a big winner the more white working class Democrats, working or retired, say they will vote for McCain.

What no one in the media is mentioning is the reason white working class democrats say they are voting for McCain. It is affirmative action. Few members of white working class have in the last 45 years, have not been effected by Affirmative action. They have worked in a plant only to see a more qualified white hourly worker get passed over for a foreman's job only to see it go to a black worker. Then they have had to live with the black foreman giving the good jobs to his fellow blacks, and the bad jobs to whites.

This summer I canvased a large number of white working class Democrats. When I asked about the war in Iraq or the Economy, they said recessions always end and wars always end, but the results of affirmative action go on forever.

I don't believe the polls that say the 23 percent of Democrats who are white and hourly workers, are going to vote for Obama on election day. Many of them have been pressured by their unions to do so. It seems to me that most of those will not truthfully tell anyone who has their phone number how they are going to vote. Unions can punish workers who don't do as they are told. But in the secrecy of the voting booth I think they will vote their fears. And that means voting for John McCain.

I think the more they push Obama as the winner the bigger the negative Obama turn out will be.

[JennysCool]

I will here re-post my much-posted Poll Thingy:

The usually-media-commissioned polls are conducted with the aim of extracting the very last dollar out of BOTH campaigns. Political advertising is different from the run-of-the-mill because it must be PAID UP FRONT, so it’s always in the media’s best interest to make things look bad for one side, so that side buys more ads, then make it look awful for the other, so they increase their ad buys. This is the paid-in-advance SUPER BOWL for TV and radio stations all over the country, and they will fight until the BITTER END to make sure the outcome is in doubt, even when it isn’t.

This polling stuff is ALL about the bucks for national and local media. They manipulate it to wring ALL the up-front dollars they can get out of it.

Then, when the media companies have gotten THE VERY LAST NICKEL OUT OF THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, the pollsters will start doing polls that reflect reality, so they can maintain their reputations for “accuracy.”

It’s ALL about money for a media that’s bleeding cash by the minute.

[ncalburt]

zOGBY POLLS WERE A SET UP FOR THIS SCAM.

[Canedawg]

I was going to ask you if you thought there would be a backlash from being inundated with his ads. What are you sensing down there?

[True Grit]

“we are going to win this”

WAAAAA WHOOOOO

[techno]

Let me summarize some battleground results in the last couple of days: 1) Mason-Dixon has McCain only 2 down in VA; 2)Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen have McCain 1 up in Florida; 3)Survey USA has NC tied and Insider Advantage has McCain only down by 1 point; 4)a recent poll of Ohio by Rasmussen has McCain up by 2 points; 5)In Missouri Suffolk has McCain 1 point up while Rasmussen has McCain 5 points down; 6) the three last polls in Colorado show McCain 5 points down, but that was before Sarah showed up for 3 rallies and her interview with Dr. James Dobson of Focus on the Family. Folks take the info and stats all together this race is definitely tightening. Any of the MSM polls or Zogby now showing a 10+ point national lead is simply hogwash.

[Brucifer]

Four years ago there were some FReepers who pointed out that Zogby had a “special sauce” that he used in his polls.

[wiley]

‘I think Obama’s incessant ads are be being counterproductive.’

I saw an Obama ad yesterday where he said that McCain represented the old economic ideology and he represents the new economic ideology.

Those are powerful words when you decipher them. Ideology in this sense is either free-market economics (euphemistically called capitalism) and socialism.

Some of those ads have got to get people wondering what he means. His soft tone is breaking down and his radicalism is starting to show itself.

McCain/Palin need to start attacking Obama’s radical positions and not just his associations. They are now getting real ammunition and if they don’t use it, shame on them and us.

[6SJ7]

As I sat watching some TV with some young Obama voters (undecideds who lean heavily for Obama, but who might not even vote), they were turned off by all the adds. Could this be a backlash of sorts?

I think so. There is definitely a point beyond which an ad, especially a political ad, becomes an annoyance. I've heard some ads so many times I now run to the radio to turn them off. I hate them. Familiarity breeds contempt.

[6SJ7]

I say HELL YEAH! We can’t allow the communists to take over our country.

This is a carrot and stick election for me. Palin is the carrot and fear of what Obama will do to the country is the stick. Fear is a great motivator!

[flattorney]

Latest FlAttorney FR “Straight Talk” Florida update - FLA

10.17.08 Video: McCain-Palin New Ad "Red State Rampage" (Funny)

10.22.08: Obama-Florida +1.8 down from +4.2
10.22.08: Florida Newspaper Endorsements (Circulation): Obama: Miami Herald(240,223); Orlando Sentinel(227,593); Palm Beach Post(164,474); Sarasota Herald Tribune(114,904); Daytona Beach News Journal(99,627); Naples Daily News(66,272) || McCain: The Tampa Tribune(220,522); Bradenton Herald(48,618); Palatka Daily News(11,000)
Democrat Winning Presidents that won Florida since 1950:
1996: Clinton 48% / 42%(Dole) EC 379/159 (Clinton +6)
1976: Carter 52% / 47%(Ford) EC 297/240 (Carter +5)
1964: Johnson 51% / 49%(Goldwater) EC 486/52 (Johnson +2)
Recent Florida Presidential Margins
2004 Bush 5%
2000 Bush <1%
1996 Clinton 5%
1992 Bush 1% (Clinton Won Election)

10.22.08: McCain-Palin continues to circle the Florida polling wagons

[kesg]

The coming trip to Iowa is starting to make even more sense. Still, McCain has got to keep paying attention to FLA. I keep saying that this year is 2000 in reverse, and the critical importance of FLA is no exception.

[Chet 99]

Seems like we’ve got a trend, eh. McCain is clearly out performing his national numbers in FL and OH.

[Perdogg]

He’s up by 1 after oversampling dems +10 from 2004.

[kesg]

I know. I’m just sayin’ that McCain needs to make triple dog sure that FLA is secure and in his column.

[WestFlorida]

And this poll had the Dem sample 6% higher than the R sample!!! Last two elections:

2004 41R 37D 22I

2006 40R 37D 21I

And Mason Dixon is well known to be one of, if not the best state poll companies.