Posted on 10/22/2008 6:32:21 AM PDT by tatown
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. Obama has now enjoyed a modest lead every day for nearly a month.
It is difficult to overstate the stability of this campaign ever since the events on Wall Street brought a new wave of economic anxiety to the fore. Just before Lehman Brothers collapsed and started the Wall Street debacle, McCain held a very slight lead in the polls. Immediately afterwards, the race became more of a referendum on the Bush Administration and Obama moved ahead. The stability of Obama’s advantage in recent weeks suggests that it will be difficult for McCain to change the dynamic before the results are finally set in stone.
For the past eleven days, Obama has been at the 50% or 51% level of support every day in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. During those same eleven days, McCain has been at 45% or 46% every day and the gap between the candidates has stayed between four and six percentage points.
If you go back a couple of weeks further, the results are pretty much the same. It’s now been 27 days since Obama’s support moved below 50% or above 52%. During that period, the number voting for McCain has stayed in the 44% to 46% range and the gap between the candidates has ranged from four to eight percentage points (see trends).
Rasmussen Markets data shows Obama with an 86.0 % chance of winning in November (see market expectations for key states).
Tracking Poll results are released every day at 9:30 a.m. Eastern and a FREE daily e-mail update is available.
Fifty-five percent (55%) of voters have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama while 54% say the same about John McCain. Those figures include 41% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama and 26% who say the same about McCain (see trends).
Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008 while 19% name national security. Eleven percent (11%) say fiscal issues such as taxes and spending are the highest priority while 10% look primarily to domestic issues such as Social Security and health care. Only 7% name cultural issues as most important.
Polling released yesterday for West Virginia and South Carolina show McCain leading in both. New state polling results were released earlier this week for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. See a video overview of the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Battleground State polls.
Rasmussen Reports data indicates that Obama currently has the edge in every state won by John Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 260-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 286-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.
Take a moment to predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year.
Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 1,000 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 3,000 Likely Voters--is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for the full-week results are available for Premium Members.
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of October 19-25, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated.
A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls, our Quick Campaign Overview and a 50-State Summary of the Presidential Race.
You need a different hobby pal
I think we’re seeing the Powell bounce here. Biden’s messups haven’t been figured into the equation yet.
Good for America = bad for Democrats
Bad for America = good for Democrats
Comports with Zogby showing a recent trend towards Hussein. This might be a Powell hit. Hopefully, it subsides.
Remember he has a 6 point Dem oversampling, which really should be about 3-4. This race is probably still 3-4% nationally. 48-45, or so.
Must be the Powell endorsement. There is certainly cause for worry.
I’ve gotten to the point where I simply don’t believe these external polls anymore. I think that, overall, the liberals want to portray “The One” with a solid lead, to discourage us, conservatives. We must stand strong! We can win this! By the grace and power of God Almighty, we are gonna win this!!!!!!!
McCain-Palin’08!!!!!
Stupid, lazy, greedy electorate ...
Obviously, not what we would prefer to see.
However, I am confident that by later next week, most polls will be showing a much tighter race.
Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process.
The SECRET SAUCE!!!
Just how it goes people. While disheartened, I'm still not throwing in the towel, and I still plan to vote.
“Stupid, lazy, greedy electorate ...”
Amen to that — and I might add, “uninformed, star-struck and short-sighted.”
Thanks for making my day.
OMG! I CANNOT TAKE THIS!!!
McCain had a bad polling day with Rasumessen on Monday. Yesterday’s sample seems to be better for him. For some reason in the Ras poll, Monday’s are not kind to Republicans. In Gallup and Zogby it’s Sunday’s that usually hurt.
the problem is also the markets, and the job cuts that are being announced.
this race is still winnable though.
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