Posted on 10/22/2008 5:17:23 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
As has been the case in just about every presidential election cycle in recent memory, the polls are showing the Democratic candidate pulling away in October.
In just three elections of the last ten has this trend held up.
Why this is true is hard to say.
What is true is there are no credible reports of the major voting blocks: White women, White men, Catholics or Evangelical Christians moving to support Barack Obama in numbers he will need.
Of these groups the most immovable for Obama will be White males who will be 43% of the electorate.
For a variety of reasons no Democrat has won White males since 1964. The percentage of White males backing Democrats for president fell to 36% in 2004. As things stand, Obama does not appear headed to get even that much backing.
How low can this column sink for Obama ?
A just completed poll of America’s Military might provide a clue as to what the White male numbers could be this year.
The Military Times asked 4300 of its readers whom they supported. John McCain leads 68/23.
Admittedly this survey was of a conservative universe. Yet given the White male make up of the military ( 65%) and its exact match with the population in general, the gap from 36% to 23% suggests White males might be finding Obama especially hard to support.
Our military is 62/38 male. John McCain is leading among military females with 53%.
A September AP-Yahoo poll of only White Democrats suggests Obama’s White male support is not growing. AP-Yahoo said one third of White Democrats and 40% of all White Americans hold negative opinions of Blacks. Or was it of Obama himself? Can anyone say for sure that these folks will change their mind by November 4th?
(Excerpt) Read more at Collinsreport.net ...
Race has little to do with white military guys not supporting Obama. It has everything to do with Obama’s attendance at a “G-D America” “church” for 20 years and his subsequent denials that he knew anything about the preacher’s views.
Support the Silent Surge
I have been getting tailgated a lot because of my McCain/Palin bumperstickers. I’m just waiting for a tap on the rear. Luckily, I’m prepared to defend myself if it comes to that.
I remember Dan BlaTHER was almost in tears.......................
Reading the internals of several polls together, most of the remaining undecided voters are white, older voters who went heavily for Bush in 2004. There also seems to be a smaller but perhaps significant chunk (depending on which state) of Hispanic Catholics who also favored Bush in 2004.
of course I do.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/independents/data-party-identification.html
Last time the Dems were as high as +6 was 1986, a mid-term election.
For all you out there that fear these polls, read this chart. Read it. Learn it. Live it. Then ask yourself if all those polls reflecting a Democratic advantage of 6-12 points in turnout reflect reality -- or Obamafantasy.
Those who do not learn from history are apt to repeat its mistakes.
All the way back to 1986. Speaks volumes, doesn't it?
So at a minimum (just based on race) we can expect these voters to break 60-40 for McCain. When you factor in their previous ideological leanings (voting for Bush vs. Kerry), it looks very good for the Arizona senator.
The Hispanic undecideds would appear to be more fertile territory for the Obamessiah, but the more frequently they go to church services the less likely they'll be to vote for a Dem.
Exactly. And besides, I suspect that the Hispanics who went with Kerry four years ago are going with Obama already. The undecideds are mostly the Hispanics who went with Bush four years ago.
If I didn't know better, I would think we were related. My very lib SIL has said she probably won't vote for POTUS at all. She was a Hillary supporter and can't stand Obama.
Date - 2000: Networks Declare Al Gore PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES while people are still voting in Florida and other states, many Republicans in their cars turn around and drive home.
Votes are counted in Florida and George Bush is ahead, Democrats, using tactics that have been successful previously in lesser elections try to STEAL the Presidency in a broad daylight political coup. A Florida democrat is caught with a box full of “votes” in their trunk, George Bush finally elected President.
Date 2004 - Seeing how calling the election EARLY in 2000 nearly got Al Gore Florida and the Presidency, the democrats roll out a new plan.
2:00 PM Eastern - LANDSLIDE KERRY is declared PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, who knows how many Republicans turn around and go home and how many elections were lost. This strategy ALMOST works but LANDSLIDE KERRY comes up short in Ohio. George Bush wins a 2nd term.
Date 2008 - Seeing how calling the election in the early evening on election night almost won Al Gore Florida and the Presidency and calling a LANDSLIDE for PRESIDENT KERRY in the early afternoon nearly won him the election, the democrats and the MSM have devised a new strategy to subvert our republic and engage in a bloodless coup they have a NEW STRATEGY.
Declare the election OVER IN OCTOBER, why risk calling it over at 7 PM or 2PM when you can declare it over before it even starts.
ARE YOU STARTING TO SEE A PATTERN?????
The MEDIA are trying to subvert our election process, they are 100 times more dangerous than ACORN. They went along with the lunatic left stories about how our elections were “illegitimate”, what are we in store for on Elecion Day?
The MEDIA are treading into dangerous territory, I fear what this country will be like after a McCain/Palin win in November.
It will be a much better place than after a McCain/Palin loss. Fortunately, I'm not too worried about McCain/Palin losing.
I haven’t backed off my Palin landslide prediction.
It’s just that the aftermath of our win is going to be one of the ugliest periods in American History and the MEDIA will be the ones who are to blame.
A McCain/Palin landslide is certainly more likely than an Obama/Biden one. I'm content to predict a comfortable GOP win. :-) There may be some riots and ugliness. But I'm hopeful that will be minimal. Remember all the predictions of chaos at the 2008 Dem convention? That really didn't materialize.
But if things do get bad, I agree - the media is to blame. Plus some lousy Dem politicians like Jack Murtha intentionally stoking the flames.
The spin after we win will divide the country even further. I never took the convention chaos seriously, the aftermath of a McCain win, I do.
Last Presidential election 10% of voters made up their minds during the last week of the election.
And people wonder why McCain hasn't spent more of his money yet? :-)
And, ironically, I can almost guarantee the Democrats will be screaming that the ACORN shenanigans (among other things) were responsible for tarnishing the integrity of our electoral process.
Yes, this is where a breakdown would be interesting, along age lines.
And that age group is the most unlikely of the groups to actually vote.
I agree, the pollsters are underestimating the GOP turnout, which will be heavy due to the Evangelical vote.
That was the difference in 2006 elections, it was suppressed due to the GOP scandals.
The Christians are coming to vote this election due to the extreme views of Obama on abortion and Palin on the ticket.
Yes, that will be the crucial turning point.
I could write a book that no one would read. Besides, nobody likes a crybaby. What worries me more is the fate of my grandchildren. This is a tribal war being waged by one side and their allied useful idiot shmoos. Having said that, I voted for Lynn Swan because I did not perceive him to be a racist enemy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.