Posted on 10/21/2008 9:23:06 PM PDT by nickcarraway
Amid reports of the John McCain camp narrowing the number of states in which it is truly competing, all eyes in the political world have turned toward Pennsylvania (in part because that's where the candidate spent his day hard at it on the stump).
With polls showing Barack Obama poised to win at least four states President Bush carried in 2004 -- Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia and Colorado -- the question has become which major state could McCain snatch from the Democratic column to maintain GOP control of the White House.
That's where Pennsylvania, with its 21 electoral votes, comes in, as Newsweek's Andrew Romano adroitly detailed earlier today. Romano also appropriately cast a skeptical eye on that strategy, in light of what the Pennsylvania polls have been indicating.
McCain's political director, Mike Duhaime, counters such naysaying.
He conducted a conference call with reporters this afternoon, and The Times' Bob Drogin relates that the operative insisted “we feel we’re going to be successful” in Pennsylvania.
One reason: Duhaime termed McCain the most appealing GOP presidential candidate to Pennsylvania voters since Ronald Reagan.
He also broke down some numbers from the '04 race, arguing that....
...since Democrat John Kerry won the state by only 140,000 votes, McCain “needs to flip” only 2,000 votes in each the state’s 67 counties.
Here's what else Duhaime had to say, as passed along by Drogin:
He said the campaign is operating three dozen offices in the state and is making hundreds of thousands of phone calls every week to identify and persuade potential GOP voters. The data mining efforts are aimed at identifying former Hillary Clinton supporters and independents who are prepared to consider McCain’s message. He said the internal data is “trending” in McCain’s direction and is showing “a lot of things” not apparent
(Excerpt) Read more at latimesblogs.latimes.com ...
I saw a poll on a thread (somewhere) that showed McCain was practically tied with the Zero in New Mexico.
“I have family in the Philly burbs; they’re not going to McCain.”
Well, to be fair no one can flip every vote. Did they go to Bush?
I’m assuming everyone here is going to vote...so I’m free to say whatever I damn well please. To paraphrase you: I’m not sure I’m supposed to be your cheerleader.
That was Zogby, FWIW.
He knows what he’s talking about!
Looking good!
McCain is in far better shape than he should be thanks to Gov Palin. She was a genius pick. Mo is definately on our side.
Here’s the question of the polls. If they are in the MOE over a few days, how do they stay on one side and not vary back and forth other than manipulation.
Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops
I agree he will take NV!
Iowa and New Mexico are probably lost; but Colorado still appears competitive (in fact, all but the Denver area seems to be red territory); and Virginia also seems very uncertain (although it is possible that northern Virginia could carry the state for Sen. Obama; but it is just as possible that the rest of Virginia—or ROVA, as it is sometimes termed—may carry the state for Sen. McCain).
Send a bunch of radio and tv reporters to interview Murtha. That should help.
The Zogby poll showed O/M about even?
In New Mexico, that is.
Good response. Now I’m listening for the answer.
There are a couple of paths to victory. If McCain loses VA he needs to flip PA and all the other Bush states except CO. Total 277.
If he loses PA he needs VA and CO and all the other Bush states. Total 274.
Amazing how it almost always comes down to a couple of these swing states. But don’t let ‘em say its over. McCain can win this several ways. It will be interesting to watch him play it out in these states.
Missouri is the Bellwether state. It has chosen every president correctly since 1904 besides 1956 which Eisenhower lost by just a few thousand votes(26-1 record 96% efficiency). If Missouri is for McCain so goes the country generally. Watch Missouri and you will probably know the outcome of this election. I can’t see McCain winning without Missouri.
I went to http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&tab=wl
If you click on "electoral votes" on the left and it loads up a feel for where things are right now. The default shows MO in McCain's camp, but the EC going to O.
You click on each state once or twice to change sides or "neutralize" it. Anyway if you give FL to McCain you need to play with VA, CO and PA. This assumes MO will stay in McCain's camp and IA goes to Obama.
Check it out, it's pretty neat. You can carve several paths to victory but you need to make some (reasonable) assumptions and then hope that the campaign can pull them out.
Yawn... a majority of reports from other Freepers say that PA is BIG TIME McCain/Palin country. They report seeing a huge number of McCain/Palin signs in what would normally be RAT territory. McCain WILL WIN PA!
It’s time to just shut up and do it. They sound like Donna Brazile broadcasting strategy. Is it about the staff or the ticket?
The snake and the forehead were encouraging folks to start pointing fingers early...are they that stupid?
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