McCain Outperforming Bush in Ohio Bellwethers? (Jim Geraghty's Campaign Spot)

The Campaign Spot ^ | 10/21/08 | Jim Geraghty

[TonyInOhio]

Some very good news here. I'm going to see Sarah Palin tomorrow in Findlay (yea me!), and she and McCain are in southern Ohio tomorrow.

[NeoCaveman]

I continue to hear from my source on the ground in Ohio, who is seeing results for McCain that are surprisingly good. He puts it, "in a key bellweather section of Ohio, McCain continues to show internals that are exceeding the national pollsters’ results. This portends a potentially larger McCain victory in Ohio than Bush had in 2004.”

I wonder if he means Lake County?

Yes, McC is running ahead of Bush '04 in Lake.

[TonyInOhio]

I think this jives with what LS has been hearing, too.

If McCain outperforms Bush in Ohio, I can understand the campaign's emphasis on Pennsylvania. Kerry only carried PA by 3.5% in 2004.

[hattend]

Get good pics and an autograph!!

[CatOwner]

Kerry only carried PA by 3.5% in 2004.

Actually, it was 2.5%.

[BigEdLB]

Fingers Crossed

[TonyInOhio]

Actually, it was 2.5%.

Even better!

This also shows, I think, that Rassmussen is weighting his state polls (at least Ohio, but probably FL, VA, and NC, too) based on new voter registrations, thereby oversampling Democrats, as he is nationally. His last Ohio poll showed a one point race, but Bush won by two points in 2004, and if Geraghty's source is correct, he is ahead of that pace.

[sunmars]

now we know why Obama and Murtha are sweating buckets over Western PA. They are losing Western PA by a mile, I betcha, which means they are losing NE Ohio by a mile, the same counties Hillary tore Obama in by a mile. I see a pattern.

[Harry Wurzbach]

There’s so many BS polls floating around. But what do you expect when they’re sponsored by media outlets or universities?

I think McCain will win this solidly, something like 52-47 or even 52-46 in the popular vote, and with about 309 electoral votes. Not only do I expect McCain to hold Ohio and take Pennsylvania, I think he’ll take New Hampshire and Wisconsin as well. I expect him to lose New Mexico and perhaps Iowa, though maybe Iowa finds its ways back to the GOP too. If he runs strong in Ohio and Pennsylvania, then I don’t see him losing Virginia, and I certainly don’t see him losing North Carolina or Missouri.

McCain might end up showing much greater strength in the Upper Midwest than is being picked up on now. It’s not like Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan were blowout losses in 2004. Now we have the Democrat candidate insulting every gun owner and churchgoer in the Rust Belt and Upper Midwest. These were people who needed a reason to vote for Obama, not another reason to be leery of him.

[impeachedrapist]

Folks, this Presidential race is over

Stay focused. Lots of House, Senate and gubernatorial races to impact.

[rwfromkansas]

Great.

Still need to be worried about CO, NM, MO, IA, VA especially.

But, an OH win would be a big help.

[Krodg]

Dang...that’s the closest she’s been to me and I can’t go! Hubby has a dr appointment and I have training to be a poll worker.

[scratcher]

Fantastic! Thanks for posting!

[tatown]

good stuff!

[Cedric]

It’s like tumblers in a lock.

One by one, states are dropping into their proper slots.

[impeachedrapist]

Today McCain’s in Pittsburgh PA. (Go figure!) Tomorrow there are three OH events and one NH event. Thursday so far there is one OH and one FL event scheduled. Word is that McCain is going to CO on Friday.

[mmichaels1970]

But I would be curious about which debilitating virus is attacking those with Y chromosomes in that state.

As an Ohio father of four daughters, I'd be interested in learning about this as well.

[Just A Nobody]

McCain Outperforming Bush in Ohio Bellwethers?

Cool! I didn't know President Bush was running. You got my vote "W"!!!

[KriegerGeist]

I still think that Todd & Sarah Palin making visits to Michigan could pull the state into McCain’s column according to friends and former neighbors in Michigan. I’m not sure about Wisconsin or Minnisota only because I don’t have friends or family there (in Wisconsin anymore).

[CatOwner]

Interesting, McCain is shooting for PA and NH. Picking up both gives McCain more than one way to achieve an Electoral victory.