McCain _might_ win - but it’s a longshot.
Here’s how it looks to me (of course, I will be upfront and say I have absolutely no qualifications and am just another FR reader and poster):
Obama wins the popular vote, with 50-52% of the total votes cast nationwide.
If McCain wins, it has to be “through the electoral college” - exactly as G.W. Bush did in 2000.
In order for McCain to prevail, almost every state in contention must fall his way - again, a longshot, and the trends in a few states are very discouraging for conservatives.
Ohio - McCain wins, but the margin is narrow.
Florida - Same as Ohio. McCain will win.
Colorado - might be too close to call. Favorable ballot initiative might help to eke out a win for McCain.
New Mexico - lost to the blue side. 2008 will mark the year that NM is “gone forever” from conservatives.
Pennsylvania - could be the heartbreaker, as with it, McCain wins, but without PA, his loss looks inevitable. Too close to call, leaning Obama.
Virginia - this state (along with the next one) is going to give conservatives a wakeup call the likes of a two-by-four hitting them in the backside. Conservatives/Republicans are going to lose VA on the down-ticket elections, and this certainly can’t help McCain there. 2008 will be the year the first southern state “goes northern”.
And just south of Virgina is North Carolina, another state in which the vote tallies are going to send shocks through the conservative world. Here, as in VA, a McCain victory is going to be nearly as thin as paper, if he can win at all.
Because I expect the vote tallies to be so close in the event of a McCain win, I expect MULTIPLE challenges to his victories this time, a la Florida in 2000. The ‘rats aren’t going quietly into the night. And this time, they will use the cries of “racism” as never before. The caterwaul may become so intense that perhaps - just perhaps - the majority of whites will be pushed towards that moment when decades of “white guilt” is finally burned out of them. Maybe literally.
There’s no telling yet what Obama will say in his “big speech”. I sense that no matter _what_ he says, it’s good for an additional point or two in the polls. He’s trying to “break 50” nationally - a point from which the opponent has almost no chance to recover.
I believe McCain’s best hope would be some kind of “rebuttal speech”. (Aside: isn’t it interesting how the Left and the media will push for a restoration of the Fairness Doctrine, but will say nothing about offering “equal time” after a political speech such as this?) I’d like to see it be given by Palin, in much the same way that Ronald Reagan gave his landmark speech in defense of Barry Goldwater in 1964. But I don’t expect this to happen.
I’ll vote on November 4th, even though I’m in a solidly-blue state where there’s no hope of McCain winning. But I’ll vote for him anyway.
I keep hoping that things will break our way, but one of the core considerations of my becoming conservative years ago was being willing to “see things as they are”, not as I would wish them to be. And the way I see them right now, perhaps our best hope is to start discussion on how to effectively oppose a rabidly-left White House and a Congress with leftist supermajorities in both houses. If that can be done at all.
I invite rebuttals regarding the individual states I mentioned above. And you can email me all the crow pics you can find, and I’ll eat them on November 5th.
But that’s how I’m calling it.
- John
People need to realize that. Obama can lose a battleground or even two and still WIN.
We cannot lose ONE of them.
Hmmm. According to my memory, *every* President wins through the Electoral College.
What planet did you beam down from?