Posted on 10/21/2008 6:00:23 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:
AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)
Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
Now you're talking!
Any word on two big House races in PA. Repub Lou Barletta (mayor of Hazleton,PA) and the ex-military fellow running against Murtha?
I heard Lou is ahead of slimy Paul Kaj aka Paul Fannie & Freddie. Murtha is insulting his base.
Donate and volunteer for McCain-Palin.
People need to realize that. Obama can lose a battleground or even two and still WIN.
We cannot lose ONE of them.
First, McCain could win without VA. I wouldn't want him to, but he could. Second, McCain has not written off Virginia!
I'm sure all the brownshirt O'bomber youth will be glued to the TV's in zombielike fashion awaiting their instructions from "that One".
I’m afraid the aftermath of this election will make 2000 look like a day at the beach. I hope I’m wrong.
Thanks.
That's completely inaccurate. In 2000 Bush won the election by winning: NH, VA, NC, OH, FL, CO, MO and NV. He lost MI, WI, MN, PA, NM and IA. So that's six current (2008) battleground states (off the top of my head) that then Gov. Bush lost, yet he's finishing up his second term.
In 2004 Bush lost NH, but won IA and NM. All others remained the same, so his electoral total increased to 286.
As you can see, from 2000 to 2004 the electoral map was pretty stable. I expect similar stability this time around.
Forget Real Clear Politics and the polls. This Obama is ahead in FL is crap.
Bush won FL in 2004 +5 against Kerry and Kerry was a better candidate.
Repub. Charlie Crist won Gov in FL by +7.
McCain is going to win PA as well.
Volunteer and donate.
How could he win without VA and PA?
With my idiot neighbor across the street......thank god I can count on her "Working" husband to cancel her vote out on Nov. 4th.
If Obama wins VA (13 EVs) and PA (21), he still wouldn't win based on electoral math. That would carry Bush's 286 EV total down to 273 (-13 from VA; Kerry won PA four years ago, so that's a Dem hold). So McCain could still win rather comfortably, but he'd have to do an unlikely sweep of FL (27), OH (20), NC (15), MO (11), IA (7), NM (5), MN (10), NH (4), CO (9), NV (5), WI (10) and MI (17), thereby giving him 314 electoral votes (44 more than needed). (underlined means states Kerry won in 2004)
The problem with such equations is that the states generally move as groups. So for Obama to win PA and VA, but lose OH, doesn't really make sense. So for WI, MN, PA and IA (and maybe even MI) to still be competitive at this point in the 2008 race, while Obama's numbers aren't looking good in OH, spells some major problems for the Obamessiah. Doesn't mean he can't win, just that his chances are getting smaller.
Agreed, America will not choose socialism.
So for WI, MN, PA and IA (and maybe even MI) to still be competitive at this point in the 2008 race, while Obama's numbers aren't looking good in OH, spells some major problems for the Obamessiah.You really need to step away from the crack pipe. Michigan is not nearly competitive. McCain left there a couple of weeks ago. It's solid for Obama. What makes you think McCain is competitive in WI, MN, PA, or IA. Be specific. Even OH is a toss-up at best for McCain.
I’ve backed up my statements and backed them up again. Some refuse to read what they don’t want to believe. I’m fine with a pessimistic, clueless wonder like yourself not accepting my position. More than fine. I’m downright peachy!! :-D
I must have missed it. Could you please repost the specific information that makes you think McCain is going to win Wisconsin. Or at least a post number...
I think Collins will beat Allen in Maine. And since I’m upbeat today I’ll say McCain surprises and carries Maine’s second district.
So there’s one ev. I want to say that only Iowa and New Mexico are in jeopardy, so right now there’s McCain at 279 ev. But I think PA will go McCain. A thread here had obama’s internals up 2. So factor in late McCain mentum, the Easy Ed Rendeell and the PUMAs, plus the NRA surge, I think McCain wins PA. It won’t be called until 6 the next morniong which will suck. If MccAin were to win PA big early, other states like Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota might fall into place.
No.
But I'll be a sport and mention that I did particularly bring up data pointing to MN being competitive. And I believe your well-informed response was "McCain's campaign is stupid." Or similar words of wisdom.
By the way, Skippy, "competitive" and "going to win" are two different things. Not in your world, of course, but in R - E - A - L - I - T - Y.
...[m]eanwhile, the party stopped airing its independent ads in Wisconsin, though McCain has continued. Some Republicans have begun to privately question why McCain also continues to advertise in Iowa, where polls show Obama with double-digit polling leads.
"We make decisions based on where we think we can play," Davis said, noting that polls he has seen place McCain closer to Obama. "The Iowa numbers look pretty good to me." ...
McCain is advertising in WI through at least 26 Oct. Don't know what the cut-off dates for IA and MN are.
Right. You said “And why is McCain/Palin spending money in Minnesota?” but provided nothing to support this claim. It seems your “data” is you, yourself, making unsubstantiated claims.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.