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Folks, this Presidential race is over
Various ^ | 10/21/08 | Impeached Rapist

Posted on 10/21/2008 6:00:23 AM PDT by impeachedrapist

Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.

But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:

AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)

Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.

The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.

If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.


TOPICS: Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: antichrist; biden; getoutandvote; gottavote; mccain; obama; palin; vote; votevote
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To: Yaelle
Each one of us can do something. Phone calling, donations, anything.

Now you're talking!

221 posted on 10/21/2008 10:40:30 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: impeachedrapist

Any word on two big House races in PA. Repub Lou Barletta (mayor of Hazleton,PA) and the ex-military fellow running against Murtha?

I heard Lou is ahead of slimy Paul Kaj aka Paul Fannie & Freddie. Murtha is insulting his base.

Donate and volunteer for McCain-Palin.


222 posted on 10/21/2008 10:41:27 AM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Fishrrman
Well, I think you are being very realistic. I am playing with the map and can find a few ways to tie Obama, but the only way to beat him is for us to take VA or PA for sure, and EVERY OTHER BATTLEGROUND STATE.

People need to realize that. Obama can lose a battleground or even two and still WIN.

We cannot lose ONE of them.

223 posted on 10/21/2008 10:42:41 AM PDT by Yaelle (One candidate fought America's enemies and one candidate owes all he has to America's enemies)
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To: Yaelle
If McCain has written off VA, Obama has won. I can't see McCain winning without it. Play with the Create Your Own map on RealClearPolitics and see for yourself.

First, McCain could win without VA. I wouldn't want him to, but he could. Second, McCain has not written off Virginia!

224 posted on 10/21/2008 10:44:03 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: luv2ski
Is anyone else concerned about all these 30 min infomercials that BHO is running just before the election? Thirty min to say whatever he wants (read:lies) with no rebuttal makes me nervous.

I'm sure all the brownshirt O'bomber youth will be glued to the TV's in zombielike fashion awaiting their instructions from "that One".

225 posted on 10/21/2008 10:47:32 AM PDT by thingumbob (McGenius-Palin beats O'bomber-Hide'n (Remember, dead terrorists don't make more terrorists!))
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To: twhitak

I’m afraid the aftermath of this election will make 2000 look like a day at the beach. I hope I’m wrong.


226 posted on 10/21/2008 10:49:21 AM PDT by rdl6989 (What isn't above Obama's pay grade?)
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To: Your Nightmare

Thanks.


227 posted on 10/21/2008 10:51:55 AM PDT by Yaelle (One candidate fought America's enemies and one candidate owes all he has to America's enemies)
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To: Yaelle
Obama can lose a battleground or even two and still WIN. We cannot lose ONE of them.

That's completely inaccurate. In 2000 Bush won the election by winning: NH, VA, NC, OH, FL, CO, MO and NV. He lost MI, WI, MN, PA, NM and IA. So that's six current (2008) battleground states (off the top of my head) that then Gov. Bush lost, yet he's finishing up his second term.

In 2004 Bush lost NH, but won IA and NM. All others remained the same, so his electoral total increased to 286.

As you can see, from 2000 to 2004 the electoral map was pretty stable. I expect similar stability this time around.

228 posted on 10/21/2008 10:52:17 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: Yaelle

Forget Real Clear Politics and the polls. This Obama is ahead in FL is crap.

Bush won FL in 2004 +5 against Kerry and Kerry was a better candidate.

Repub. Charlie Crist won Gov in FL by +7.

McCain is going to win PA as well.

Volunteer and donate.


229 posted on 10/21/2008 10:52:58 AM PDT by Frantzie
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To: impeachedrapist

How could he win without VA and PA?


230 posted on 10/21/2008 10:53:37 AM PDT by Yaelle (One candidate fought America's enemies and one candidate owes all he has to America's enemies)
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To: Cedric
Quit listening to NPR.

With my idiot neighbor across the street......thank god I can count on her "Working" husband to cancel her vote out on Nov. 4th.

231 posted on 10/21/2008 10:54:44 AM PDT by thingumbob (McGenius-Palin beats O'bomber-Hide'n (Remember, dead terrorists don't make more terrorists!))
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To: Yaelle
You said he couldn't win without VA. I said he could. Now you're upping the ante to VA and PA. But McCain still could win then.

If Obama wins VA (13 EVs) and PA (21), he still wouldn't win based on electoral math. That would carry Bush's 286 EV total down to 273 (-13 from VA; Kerry won PA four years ago, so that's a Dem hold). So McCain could still win rather comfortably, but he'd have to do an unlikely sweep of FL (27), OH (20), NC (15), MO (11), IA (7), NM (5), MN (10), NH (4), CO (9), NV (5), WI (10) and MI (17), thereby giving him 314 electoral votes (44 more than needed). (underlined means states Kerry won in 2004)

The problem with such equations is that the states generally move as groups. So for Obama to win PA and VA, but lose OH, doesn't really make sense. So for WI, MN, PA and IA (and maybe even MI) to still be competitive at this point in the 2008 race, while Obama's numbers aren't looking good in OH, spells some major problems for the Obamessiah. Doesn't mean he can't win, just that his chances are getting smaller.

232 posted on 10/21/2008 11:07:50 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: impeachedrapist

Agreed, America will not choose socialism.


233 posted on 10/21/2008 11:09:22 AM PDT by 1Old Pro
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To: impeachedrapist
So for WI, MN, PA and IA (and maybe even MI) to still be competitive at this point in the 2008 race, while Obama's numbers aren't looking good in OH, spells some major problems for the Obamessiah.
You really need to step away from the crack pipe. Michigan is not nearly competitive. McCain left there a couple of weeks ago. It's solid for Obama. What makes you think McCain is competitive in WI, MN, PA, or IA. Be specific. Even OH is a toss-up at best for McCain.

You keep making these optimistic statements but don't really back them up with anything. You're sounding more and more like Comical Ali with every post.
234 posted on 10/21/2008 11:22:15 AM PDT by Your Nightmare
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To: Your Nightmare

I’ve backed up my statements and backed them up again. Some refuse to read what they don’t want to believe. I’m fine with a pessimistic, clueless wonder like yourself not accepting my position. More than fine. I’m downright peachy!! :-D


235 posted on 10/21/2008 11:24:53 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: impeachedrapist

I must have missed it. Could you please repost the specific information that makes you think McCain is going to win Wisconsin. Or at least a post number...


236 posted on 10/21/2008 11:28:26 AM PDT by Your Nightmare
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To: impeachedrapist

I think Collins will beat Allen in Maine. And since I’m upbeat today I’ll say McCain surprises and carries Maine’s second district.
So there’s one ev. I want to say that only Iowa and New Mexico are in jeopardy, so right now there’s McCain at 279 ev. But I think PA will go McCain. A thread here had obama’s internals up 2. So factor in late McCain mentum, the Easy Ed Rendeell and the PUMAs, plus the NRA surge, I think McCain wins PA. It won’t be called until 6 the next morniong which will suck. If MccAin were to win PA big early, other states like Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota might fall into place.


237 posted on 10/21/2008 11:33:08 AM PDT by mainerforglobalwarming
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To: Your Nightmare
Could you please repost the specific information that makes you think McCain is going to win Wisconsin.

No.

But I'll be a sport and mention that I did particularly bring up data pointing to MN being competitive. And I believe your well-informed response was "McCain's campaign is stupid." Or similar words of wisdom.

By the way, Skippy, "competitive" and "going to win" are two different things. Not in your world, of course, but in R - E - A - L - I - T - Y.

238 posted on 10/21/2008 11:33:33 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: All
Just in case there are some well-meaning folks who really don't understand why I (and many others) view MN, IA and WI as competitive:

...[m]eanwhile, the party stopped airing its independent ads in Wisconsin, though McCain has continued. Some Republicans have begun to privately question why McCain also continues to advertise in Iowa, where polls show Obama with double-digit polling leads.

"We make decisions based on where we think we can play," Davis said, noting that polls he has seen place McCain closer to Obama. "The Iowa numbers look pretty good to me." ...

AP article from yesterday

McCain is advertising in WI through at least 26 Oct. Don't know what the cut-off dates for IA and MN are.

239 posted on 10/21/2008 11:38:37 AM PDT by impeachedrapist (Bill Clinton, as Arkansas Attorney General did you make Juanita Broaddrick pay for her rape kit?)
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To: impeachedrapist

Right. You said “And why is McCain/Palin spending money in Minnesota?” but provided nothing to support this claim. It seems your “data” is you, yourself, making unsubstantiated claims.


240 posted on 10/21/2008 11:54:06 AM PDT by Your Nightmare
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