Posted on 10/21/2008 6:00:23 AM PDT by impeachedrapist
Obama's numbers in OH stink, and PA isn't much better. He's hurting in FL. McCain's putting on the pressure in NH, WI, MN, IA, CO, VA and rumor has it even MI again. And McCain/Palin are just now employing their ad blitz. Life is good, and barring a major October/November surprise the lightweight Marxist has been defeated.
But we still have plenty of work to do. There are a bunch of vulnerable freshmen Dem representatives in the House. The GOP has about 20 realistic pick-up opportunities. See my list below:
AL-05
AZ-05
CA-11
GA-08
IL-14
KS-02
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NH-02
NY-20
PA-07
PA-08
PA-10
PA-11
TX-22
TX-23
WI-08
And my personal favorite! PA-12 (tough, but doable thanks to Murtha the Marine smearing racist)
Details on these races (website links, voting percentages, fundraising numbers, etc.) are here spread throughout this thread.
The current count is Dems 233, GOP 202. The Pubbies unfortunately do have to defend a lot of seats due to retirement. To retake the House they'd need to basically run the table on defending those seats and win about 16 of those above pick-up opportunities. Possible, but not likely. However, a solid McCain/Palin win in this anti-incumbent environment could provide enough of a push. And just cutting into the Dems' current 31-seat lead, after months of them gloating, will be very demoralizing.
If you've been thinking about donating your time and/or money, now's the time.
I saw 2 McCain ads last night during the Pats game! I get WMUR out of NH - it was good to finally see ads!
I gotta get off my computer, but for now I’ll respond this way: I am cautiously optimistic about everything except the Senate races. Then again, I haven’t really focused yet on the Senate races.
I found a resource showing McCain advertising in NH from late Sep through 4 Oct. Obama outspent him about 2:1 there. Which is actually one of the smaller margins I’ve seen, thereby telling me McCain likes his chances in NH. Haven’t found anything either way since 4 Oct.
I'm not sure that map could be any more optimistic for Obama if we tried.Yeah, Karl Rove's been in the tank for Obama for quite a while.
Where the two campaigns are campaigningThey're both campaigning in states McCain should have locked up a long time ago.
Baseline voting habits (by state) established during recent Presidential electionsDon't you get a sense that this election is different than recent elections?
Campaign, RNC and 527 money allocated for advertising (and, more importantly, where)Obama raised $150 million last month. He can outspend them all probably 2 to 1. And that doesn't count the DNC and pro-Obama 527s.
Turnout percentages (by party) for the 2004 and 2006 electionsYou mean the 2004 and 2006 elections that went increasingly to Democrats?
How the Democrats are reacting (constantly blaming Obama's pending loss on racism)I'm not sure how this affects the actual vote.
Public and private word from folks plugged into GOP operations as to who is moving staff and resources where.You mean like McCain pulling out of Michigan to focus on states he absolutely has to win to avoid a landslide? Maybe you could be more specific.
Conservative excitement at the Palin selection (new) and anger at the media's blatant promotion of the Democrat (old)Yeah, Obama lost a lot of conservative votes there...
I took a shot that, based on your screen name, you were either a Lloyola college wrestling coach or former wrestler.
What's your take on the “sick grandma” trip to Hawaii gambit?
Even better: "KNOCK IT OFF!", or "Up yours!"
Except for this. This is the most depressing thing I've ever read.
Oh wait, there's everything else, too. When will that rock fall on me?
There are optimists, pessimists and realists. Which are you?
I'm an optimist. I'm optmistic that this living hell we must endure every day is the best we'll ever do.
Then it will get worse.
"This is the end! The end! Aaargh!!"
Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Deep dark depression, excessive misery;
If it weren't for bad luck,
I'd have no luck at all:
Gloom, despair and agony on me.
Oh, that just brought my mood down.
Keep working and giving as hard as you can.
What an absolutely absurd comment. 2004 turnout percentage was 37-37. And during the GOP's supposedly horrendous year in 2006 turnout percentage was +3 Dems. So when viewed against polls showing Democrats outperforming Pubbies by 8-, 10- or even 14-points, it shows an objective observer how laughable those polls (which leads to your pretty little map) really are.
They're both campaigning in states McCain should have locked up a long time ago.
Really? Like NM? Oops. Or PA? Oops. Or NH? Oops. And why is McCain/Palin spending money in Minnesota? Oops? By the way, why was Joe Biden campaigning in Washington state earlier this week? Oops.
As for your little comment about Palin not costing Obama votes, well duh! It's about increasing the conservative turnout. The same turnout people like you were dismissing in 2004, until Kerry was hit by a tsunami on Election Day.
AmeriCAN and RepubliCAN in November!
Dead on the mark, both of you. Sick of hearing the defeatists spreading their doom and gloom.
LOL! Verily, thou must be Episcopalian. :-)
No wait, everyone else was, too.
Oh God.
Realists provide data. (That would be me.) Optimists and pessimists tend to overreact emotionally because they often lack data.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.