Posted on 10/20/2008 3:02:59 PM PDT by Chet 99
Monday, October 20, 2008 Email a Friend Email to a Friend
As Yogi Berra would say, its déjà vu all over again.
John McCain now has a two-point lead on Barack Obama in Ohio, 49% to 47%, in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. A week ago Obama was ahead by two points, his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February.
The current poll finds McCain with his highest level of support since mid-September. But its hard to classify Ohio as anything but a pure toss-up. For four straight weeks, the two candidates have been within two points of each other or closer. During that time, neither man has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%. If the four polls are averaged together, Obama and McCain are within a half-point of each other.
In the new poll, one percent (1%) support independent candidate Ralph Nader and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Ohio, with its 20 Electoral College votes, is a classic swing state. George W. Bush carried it in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrat Bill Clinton won Ohio in the two previous presidential elections.
Both men and women in Ohio are now fairly evenly divided between the two candidates. Obama earns 67% of the vote from non-whites, while McCain has 53% of the white vote.
McCain has the support of 87% of Ohio Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters back Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain by four points. Last week at this time, the Democrat had a seven-point edge among unaffiliateds.
In that earlier survey, 77% of voters said they were certain of whom they will vote for, while 23% said there was still a chance they might change their minds. Now 82% say they are certain of their vote.
Of those whove made up their minds, 86% support McCain, 84% Obama. Of the 18% who still may change, 14% support McCain at this point, while 16% prefer Obama.
Here’s what I wish we could do (as a voter from California)... gather funds to advertise FULL PAGE ads in major newspapers in the midwest. Our family found out from visiting places like Ohio that they HATE San Francisco liberals and shudder at the idea of the whacky things that go on in SF... they think all of California celebrates gay marriage, legal drug use and welfare while hanging out at the beach all day. So something along the lines of obama’s “spreading the wealth” only talk about spreading the San Francisco politics and lifestyle all the way across the country. Show a collage of pictures and headlines to drive it home. Midwesterners in swing states would fight to get to the polls to stop the liberal cancer.
If only we could do it... it would work!
More than anywhere else in the country, Ohioans are seeing one of their own being attacked for daring to question the Liberal Messiah. The undecided Ohioans don't want to vote for someone who (including his supporters) shows so much arrogance and so little respect for Free Speech.
Look, if McCain is ahead in OH and FL, he is ahead in NC and VA. The only part of the country that is starting to worry me is the Mtn West. CO and NV I think will hold the key to this election. If McCain takes them, he can lose NM and be the next POTUS. If he loses either, he’s toast. PA may be doable, but it is a long shot NV could be ofset by a win in NH. Bush won there in 2000.
Enough.
I’ve been making phone calls for McCain on the web site’s phone bank. It says you can pick the state where you want to make calls, but no matter what I pick, it switches over to Ohio numbers on its own after a few calls. The McCain camp may be focussing efforts there especially since the early voting has started.
God help us, please have mercy on America one more time and deliver us from Obama and his followers.
Now we are supposed to believe mccain is up 2% in OH but behind 4-6% nationally? No way.
Ohio is probably one of the best polling indicators of how mccain is really doing, as that state is probably the most heavily polled right now.”
Great post! Thanks!
Bill, Hillary, Rendell and white union power brokers know this.”
Holy mackeral. What is it all ends up hinging on PA? That means it will be a late night while Bill, Hillary and Rendell “count” the votes and figure out just what it takes...to hose zero.
Maybe Rendell makes sure Philly is not counted 4 times.
If he is relocating to WI and MN, there must be some real concern there.
I don’t think there will be roving bands of Obama supporters rioting if McCain wins....I live in the bluest of the blues - Massachusetts (its a long story) and I have literally seen more McCain signs than Obama signs - and I live just outside of Boston. I have heard similar stories from family in New Hampshire. This is completely unprecedented - the Kerry signs were everywhere in 2004 as were the Gore signs in 2000. I’m not saying McCain will win Mass or be even close, but I just don’t think the excitement for Obama is there - it is all hype.
I too have been wondering when the cash influx and the ads on behalf of McCain will come down. I recall one of the reasons cited by Obama for opting out of public matching funds was the fact that the McCain camp would be supported by unprecedented funds from outside groups. Where then are they? When will the current campaign’s swift boat attacks begin.
Bttt
What about Colorado and Nevada? We surely need to win in Va, Fl and Oh, but Nv and Co are must win States too!
Do you think McCain coming out completely Pro-Life in the last debate be a signing factor with many blacks ? especially true christians ? Is there a large christian black population in Ohio ?
Same here. I live just outside of Boston (UGH!), and I notice a lot of McCain signs too. I wonder what’s up with that?
Absolutely! It seems that the tide is turning in those two states as well.
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