http://www.jeffhead.com/joeplumber.htm
Posted on 10/20/2008 3:02:59 PM PDT by Chet 99
Monday, October 20, 2008 Email a Friend Email to a Friend
As Yogi Berra would say, it’s déjà vu all over again.
John McCain now has a two-point lead on Barack Obama in Ohio, 49% to 47%, in the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state. A week ago Obama was ahead by two points, his first lead in Ohio since tracking of the race began in February.
The current poll finds McCain with his highest level of support since mid-September. But it’s hard to classify Ohio as anything but a pure toss-up. For four straight weeks, the two candidates have been within two points of each other or closer. During that time, neither man has topped 49% support or fallen below 47%. If the four polls are averaged together, Obama and McCain are within a half-point of each other.
In the new poll, one percent (1%) support independent candidate Ralph Nader and two percent (2%) are undecided.
Ohio, with its 20 Electoral College votes, is a classic swing state. George W. Bush carried it in both 2000 and 2004, but Democrat Bill Clinton won Ohio in the two previous presidential elections.
Both men and women in Ohio are now fairly evenly divided between the two candidates. Obama earns 67% of the vote from non-whites, while McCain has 53% of the white vote.
McCain has the support of 87% of Ohio Republicans and 13% of Democrats. Eighty-four percent (84%) of Democrats and 10% of GOP voters back Obama. Unaffiliated voters favor McCain by four points. Last week at this time, the Democrat had a seven-point edge among unaffiliateds.
In that earlier survey, 77% of voters said they were certain of whom they will vote for, while 23% said there was still a chance they might change their minds. Now 82% say they are certain of their vote.
Of those who’ve made up their minds, 86% support McCain, 84% Obama. Of the 18% who still may change, 14% support McCain at this point, while 16% prefer Obama.
How can McCain be ahead in Ohio but behind in Virginia and North Carolina?
I know that the black vote is about 20% in both states. Is black turnout going to be THAT powerful?
Joe the Plumber effect...
Because Rasmussen’s state polls are garbage. I’m sure this one is correct, though, because all the other state polls show McCain ahead in Ohio too.
For one thing, McCain has been spending money in OH. For a long time, the campaign hasn’t spent a dime in NC or VA under the belief that if they lose those states, they’re going to lose anyway. Obama has been unloading an avalanche of money in VA and nC.
.....chip, chip, chip, chip, chip.....
Looks like RASS is trying to save his career for the next couple of years.
That's true. We shouldn't be in a position having to defend our bases in the South.
The voters are pissed about ACORN. Joes of the world are standing up
The one day polling Rasmussen does for states makes it too easy to produce outliers. Most reputable pollsters insist on at least a 3 day sample.
“I know that the black vote is about 20% in both states. Is black turnout going to be THAT powerful?”
Actually, I wonder if all the African Americans who say they will vote for him actually will. It would be very, very hard to be black and say publicly that you’re voting for McCain, but some might just do that in private.
Sources deep within the Obama campaign tell me that Barack is pulling out of Ohio.
I rather doubt he was ever behind—I am betting McCain has held a steady 3-5% lead.
Yeah. There would have to be major demographic swings in the several hundreds of thousands of voters in order to make the changes come true as polled.
On piece of important info, in 2004, Bush margin of victory in OH was 1.5%, but nationally he ran 2.7% MOV.
Now we are supposed to believe mccain is up 2% in OH but behind 4-6% nationally? No way.
Ohio is probably one of the best polling indicators of how mccain is really doing, as that state is probably the most heavily polled right now.
lol
yes well, he should.
That is three Ohio polls in 2 days showing McCain up or tied!
I don’t think we’ve ever been in a position to have the other side in the position to unload millions in the other side’s “base”.
Hand John sKerry 500 million to spend, and I wonder how that would have turned out.
OH is only about 11% black.
HEY! IS SOMEONE NEAR A TV?!?!? I’M NOT. BUT IT’S 6:00 O’CLOCK. DID FOX NEWS REPORT IT????
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