“I know that the black vote is about 20% in both states. Is black turnout going to be THAT powerful?”
Actually, I wonder if all the African Americans who say they will vote for him actually will. It would be very, very hard to be black and say publicly that you’re voting for McCain, but some might just do that in private.
Actually, I think MOST BLACKS, even the few conservative ones, will vote for Obama, based on race.
OTOH, many older white dems will vote for McCain, based on race.
I believe they will. I work with a black man who committed a robbery when he was young and did some felony time in prison. I've known about this for several years, but he was so ashamed of his past behavior, he never spoke of it. He told me the other day that he applied for the reinstatement of his voting rights (apparently in Texas you have to make some sort of application) just so he could vote for Obama. For a black man in his 50's to go to this amount of trouble to vote for the first time in his life, I have to believe that most blacks are feeling this same sort of pride in a black man being President. They will never question the character of the man.