Suffolk - Missouri - McCain +1 (Dem 40 Repub 37 I 19)

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/content/Missouri_Marginals_Oct_19_2008_for_posting1.pdf ^

[Drea]

Unlike their Ohio sample (+14 dem), this Missouri sample was more realistic.

[jveritas]

Exactly.

[impeachedrapist]

7 points, 53-46.

[impeachedrapist]

The word I've heard is that McCain wasn't going to campaign in Missouri until Obama scheduled the two major coronations in St. Louis and Kansas City. So that tells me they were comfortable with the numbers, but didn't want to let those visits go unchallenged.

Now, if they go back to Missouri again before the election then I'll concede that it's probably closer than I'd like.

[ridesthemiles]

This would be pretty remarkable if true given McCain’s oppositon to ethanol subsidies (which is probably hurting him more in Iowa than any other Bush state from 2004).”

As the price of gasoline comes down, as we drill here in America, the usefulness and demand for ethanol declines.
Farmers who got convinced that they should grow corn and nothing else got sucked into a mess.
They will have to pland a broader range of crops in the future in order to survive, which is what they were doing before all the$3 gallon gas and higher.
The price of gas has to stay artificially high to make ethanol price effective.
If anyone has the ability to search the Web(which I am abysmal at) for the current statistics on how many ethanol refinery projucts have been cancelled or put on terminal hold, go for it. I think there are quite a few, as it was already happening months ago.
It boils down to this:
A farmer cannot be just a one crop grower any more than a candidate can be a one topic politician.

[Norman Bates]

Norman, if you can find me two FReepers who have been promoting McCain’s chance in PA more than me, I’ll buy you a beer.

Am I right? LOL!

[impeachedrapist]

No sir. You could argue Jay, because he's been much more emphatic than me that McCain will win. (I'm still not there yet, just very hopeful!) But I'll even argue that I still hit on the PA theme more than anyone here, including Jay.

But that's okay. If we ever meet, I'll still buy you a beer. How about a Rolling Rock, Iron City or a Yuengling in honor of the state that will (I hope) destroy Obama's chances of winning? :-)

[Norman Bates]

Norman, if you can find me two FReepers who have been promoting McCain’s chance in PA more than me, I’ll buy you a beer.

Here's another!

[Norman Bates]

YG is alright. :)

[jveritas]

Let us call it a draw :) We are all equally promoting a McCain win in Pennsylvania :)

[impeachedrapist]

No!!!!

I win
I win!
I win!!
I win!!!!!
:-)

[jveritas]

OK :)

[impeachedrapist]

Well, that was easy. I’ll buy you a Yuengling, too. :)

[jveritas]

Great :)

[PoplarBluffian]

I see more Obama signs here than I remember seeing for Kerry. O opened headquarters here and I don’t ever remember seeing that happen before as this is overwhelmingly Emerson and Republican country. However, McCain-Palin signs are clearly in the lead. The enthusiasm at headquarters is the highest I’ve ever seen. I’m looking for a large turnout election day and pray it is that way every where outside St. Louie and K.C.

[mdmathis6]

They would only do that if IA was in play and they needed the help...just what kind of a scam is being plyed on the voters...I thought IA was solidly blue!

[impeachedrapist]

There are a lot of folks here who think Iowa is solidly blue. Why, I truly have no idea. Iowa was very close the past two Presidential elections. McCain has been expending resources in Iowa. Iowa also borders three other battleground states: WI, MN and MO.

Despite all of this, some here point to inflated polls as "proving" that McCain and his staff are idiots who don't know how to run a campaign. They think he's a moron for campaigning there. I find their arrogance amusing, while at the same time disturbing.

KESG and I differ on the impact of Iowa issues. I don't worry too much about McCain being against ethanol subsidies. I'm more worried about Obama's ground game (in place for more than a year), while McCain skipped Iowa to focus on NH. KESG thinks ethanol is a bigger issue than the getting-out-the-vote infrastructure.

[impeachedrapist]

I forgot to include that Iowa is also right across the river from Omaha, where Obama is making a play for one of Nebraska’s electoral votes.

[mdmathis6]

So the extra help should be needed in Nebraska, not IA, if McCain were logical.

[impeachedrapist]

Not at all. I see you're like many of the "experts" around here. Apparently nothing I said penetrated your gray matter. You want McCain to focus on Nebraska. Sheer genius!!! Meanwhile, he's "stupidly" focusing on a key battleground state that's up for grabs. And this same state has media markets that impact three other battleground states with similar demographics, plus a focal area across the river in Omaha.

Darn, if only you were in charge... McCain might actually end up losing! Which may well be what some of you want.

[kesg]

My impression of Iowa from the caucuses is that it is full of nutters. :) Okay, that’s a bit harsh. It was a very close Gore state in 2000 and a very close Bush state in 2004. Inference: Iowa will again vote very close to the national average.

You’re right: I do worry about the ethanol issue probably more than I should. But on that GOTV thing, I don’t worry about it so much because the media forgets that the RNC, not the McCain campaign, runs the GOTV operation on the GOP side. And the RNC GOTV operation has been very good in the last three elections, even the ill-fated 2006 election.

I hear all the hype about how good the Obama GOTV operation is, but Michael Barone isn’t impressed with it (it is too much like the McGovern one in 1972, one that relies way too heavily on young volunteers — how well did that work for McGovern?). I’m not, either, based not only on Barone’s comments but also what I saw myself during the primaries earlier this year. Obama’s GOTV operation badly underperformed in places like PA and OH. The early voting numbers in Ohio didn’t exactly wow me either. I guess we will find out lots more in the next week or two as early voting is now going on in over 30 states. Everyone get out and vote!