My impression of Iowa from the caucuses is that it is full of nutters. :) Okay, that’s a bit harsh. It was a very close Gore state in 2000 and a very close Bush state in 2004. Inference: Iowa will again vote very close to the national average.
You’re right: I do worry about the ethanol issue probably more than I should. But on that GOTV thing, I don’t worry about it so much because the media forgets that the RNC, not the McCain campaign, runs the GOTV operation on the GOP side. And the RNC GOTV operation has been very good in the last three elections, even the ill-fated 2006 election.
I hear all the hype about how good the Obama GOTV operation is, but Michael Barone isn’t impressed with it (it is too much like the McGovern one in 1972, one that relies way too heavily on young volunteers — how well did that work for McGovern?). I’m not, either, based not only on Barone’s comments but also what I saw myself during the primaries earlier this year. Obama’s GOTV operation badly underperformed in places like PA and OH. The early voting numbers in Ohio didn’t exactly wow me either. I guess we will find out lots more in the next week or two as early voting is now going on in over 30 states. Everyone get out and vote!
We’re in agreement that Obama’s GOTV efforts in states with primaries underwhelmed, and so far through this general election’s early voting his GOTV efforts haven’t exactly wowed anyone (except his fawning media). So I might be placing too much emphasis on it. But I’m not worried so much about his infrastructure in general. I’m talking specifically about Iowa. This is where he started WAY BACK WHEN, putting resources in place. And it paid off for him last January. Although, again, that was a caucus and not a primary.