Despite all of this, some here point to inflated polls as "proving" that McCain and his staff are idiots who don't know how to run a campaign. They think he's a moron for campaigning there. I find their arrogance amusing, while at the same time disturbing.
KESG and I differ on the impact of Iowa issues. I don't worry too much about McCain being against ethanol subsidies. I'm more worried about Obama's ground game (in place for more than a year), while McCain skipped Iowa to focus on NH. KESG thinks ethanol is a bigger issue than the getting-out-the-vote infrastructure.
My impression of Iowa from the caucuses is that it is full of nutters. :) Okay, that’s a bit harsh. It was a very close Gore state in 2000 and a very close Bush state in 2004. Inference: Iowa will again vote very close to the national average.
You’re right: I do worry about the ethanol issue probably more than I should. But on that GOTV thing, I don’t worry about it so much because the media forgets that the RNC, not the McCain campaign, runs the GOTV operation on the GOP side. And the RNC GOTV operation has been very good in the last three elections, even the ill-fated 2006 election.
I hear all the hype about how good the Obama GOTV operation is, but Michael Barone isn’t impressed with it (it is too much like the McGovern one in 1972, one that relies way too heavily on young volunteers — how well did that work for McGovern?). I’m not, either, based not only on Barone’s comments but also what I saw myself during the primaries earlier this year. Obama’s GOTV operation badly underperformed in places like PA and OH. The early voting numbers in Ohio didn’t exactly wow me either. I guess we will find out lots more in the next week or two as early voting is now going on in over 30 states. Everyone get out and vote!