Posted on 10/20/2008 9:19:09 AM PDT by MittFan08
Monday, October 20, 2008 Email to a Friend Barack Obama has opened his biggest lead yet over John McCain in Virginia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama now leading 54% to 44%. The Democrat leads 51% to 48% among men and 57% to 42% among women (see full demographic crosstabs).
Just one week ago, Obama held a three percentage point lead but Obama has been dramatically outspending McCain on television advertising in this critical state. The Democrat has now been ahead of McCain in five straight Virginia polls conducted by Rasmussen Reports.
What are the weightings in this poll?? It is getting really old to see these polls posted without the internals.
And if he were still contending in MI & WI some people around here would be bitching about the wasted time and resources attendant, thereto.
Mason Dixon has McCain up by two in Virginia. The Old Dominion will NOT go for Obama.
Scott is going to be very embarrassed on election day.
Been there four times so far. Will be returning Wednesday night. Veterans for McCain will be on the phone banks from the state HQ in Crystal City.
If this is true (or close) it portends to McCain losing a handful of other 2004 GOP states he would win by small and medium margins. Obama should clear 325-350 electoral votes, easily.
NFW. Any poll showing Obama leading the male vote is bogus. In 2006, as down a year as you could get for Republicans, Webb barely beat Allen. If anyone believes that Obama has a larger lead in Virginia than he does nationally you are an imbecile or a moron.
“PA would outweigh VA”
PA has to be closer than the polls are indicating, or else McCain and Palin and Obama wouldn’t still be going there. But the RCP average of polls for PA is something like +15 for Obama so it’s hard to be too optimistic there. In this political environment, it’s hard to see any Kerry state flipping.
McCain’s (correct) ethanol stance has cost him Iowa’s 7 electoral votes, and that leaves us with 5 states which can give Obama the election. I refuse to believe Obama has an 8-10 point lead in Virginia, but it’d be silly to ignore the changing demographics there or the fact that Obama will get every breathing black voter to the polls.
I’m more worried about Virginia than any other state by far. Colorado is next, but it only has 9 electoral votes- one short of the 10 needed to tie the electoral college with Iowa going to Obama. Polls close in VA at 6 pm eastern, so it could be an early end to the night if we lose there.
This has to be an outlier. We are only down 4% nationally and Bush won Virginia by 8% which means we should be much closer to tied in VA.
Has VA really changed that much?
No it hasn't. Even Larry Sabato is saying that the polls showing any lead for Obama are nonsense.
PUMA’S may be lying to Rasmussen.
“This is the poll I have been waiting for today”
Chill out!
All will be well.
Just show up at the polls on November 4th!
Do you mittbots have a special "closed" FR thead planned to celebrate on when McCain concedes on election night, high fives all around?
Do some more research, maybe you can find some more bad news to report for McCain/Palin.
That's exactly where the Obama people would like you to be.
Keep the faith. Vote. Get others to vote.
That's what I thought! Rasmussen is way off on his state polls. He has McCain only ahead by 9% in Texas. LOL!
It doesn’t seem possible or even plausible to me either. The last Virginia poll I saw before today oversampled Democrats hugely, with Rasmussen saying he sampled Democrats 45%, and Republicans at 32%. Yet on actual election day in 2004 the ACTUAL numbers of voters that showed up to vote were 39% Republican and 35% Democrats. I guess the dead people and fictional characters that ACORN registered there never managed to actually get to a polling place.
Again - Ann Coulter has it right in her latest column. In every Predidential Election year since 1976, the single thing all polling outfits had in common during the final month of the campaign was a severe overstating of support for Democrats, usually by as much as 6-10 points (and their overstatement of Democrat support earlier than a month out is even more laughable). Polling outfits have always done this. Why they do it is a mystery, but they all do.
And like Rush said Friday - if in fact Obambi is up by that significant a margin this late in the game, why was he there last week?????
Thank you. WTF is wrong with Rasmussen?
There may be trade off this year guys, theres many scenarios
Obama may take Virginia, McCain taks PA, MCain -13 + 21 = 8
Obama takes Iowa, McCain snaffles NH and Maine 7 + 4 + 3, cancels out (Obama may take 1 EV from Main for 1 CD).
That leaves McCain on 294, if that happened, McCain could lose NM, Col and Nev and still win with Florida and Ohio, but Virginia would be awful to lose to the beast.
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