PREDICTION THREAD - PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2008

October 17 2008 | SoftwareEngineer

[SoftwareEngineer]

With the "normal" behavior of the stock market these last few days and an overall sense of a market "bottom" I now feel that we have a very good idea of what the financial conditions will be in the last few days. This had been the wild card in all polling scenarios as even McCain tilting voters were panicked into "considering" Obama not so much for him but more for the "throw the bums out" approach.

Thus, I am pretty confident in making my predictions for the final election result. I want to make them now and am very confident of the accuracy of my predictions. Feel free to comment in this thread about your predictions. The one closest to the actual result gets a free beer from everyone else.

ELECTORAL COLLEGE: McCain: 399 Obama 199

McCain wins MO, OH, FL, VA, NC, CO, NM and does a real close (within 1 point) pickup of MI, PA, WA, IA and NH

He loses CA, OR, ME, NJ and WI by under 2 points

VOTING PERCENTAGE: McCain: 53 Obama: 47

RANDOM NOTES: Most inaccurate exit polls will come from CA, PA and WA

Most accurate exit polls will come from OH, FL and MO

Both candidates will recieve more actual votes than GWB did in 2004 thus making the winner the highest vote getter in the history of the Republic

[Non-Sequitur]

Oh, and where did the 60 extra electoral votes come from?

[RED SOUTH]

I will make a prediction you can put in the bank. McCain
will not win with 399 electoral votes. It’s still a red state vs blue state and liberals will show up strong to vote
for the 1st black President.

It will be much much closer but McCain will win.

[Norman Bates]

Your electoral college numbers don’t add up to 538.

[Kackikat]

Rush Limbaugh and other FR are asking voters to answer pollsters they are going to vote Obama, but they aren’t..that’s going to be a shocker, for that victory party that ends up serving crow.
McCain- 360+
Obama - a lot less

[Disambiguator]

Are you kidding? Obama will be driving the DeathMobile.

[LadyPilgrim]

Hi...new person! Welcome. How sweet your scenario would be!
I certainly hope you are right!
I too think it’s going to be a landslide.

I do mostly, because God’s people are a praying bunch.
And we’ve been at it for some time now.
I do believe God hears us! And will give us victory!

I would not say this except, I and many I have conversed with, have an overwhelming urge to take her name before the Throne of grace on a daily basis.
When God does this to my heart.....He has something in store for those for whom I am praying.

I think the principle....is this is the faith in God, Jesus talked about in Mark 11:20-25..

Again....welcome. ;-)))

McCain/Palin

[HamiltonJay]

Yea, I think 399 is over the top, but I do see McCain winning.

I don’t see FL, OH, NC, VA, MO turning for him.

IA is almost certaily going to go to Fauxbama..

The western states, I am not sure, since I’m not on the ground there, so I can’t judge what’s going on. CO has had an influx of liberals but is it enough to turn the state? I don’t know... impressions from those there?

NM seems to be driven by Immigration as to it possibly flipping?? Anyone on the ground know what’s up there?

NV, I have no idea what or why this one is being portayed as a turn. Anyone on the ground there able to elaborate? Why is this presumed to turn and what do you think is behind it?

PA, I just see no way Fauxbama wins PA, no way at all.

So If my math is right, and we concede all 3 western states plus Iowa.. (I am not saying that’s going to happen, but since I can’t speak otherwise, I’ll give it to him for the sake of argument) I’ll conceded it.. that nets Fauxbama 26 but his loss of PA, loses 21, so he net gains 5 on Kerry and is still 14 shy of 270.

Hell if McCain turns PA, fauxbama could event take VA as well as CO,IA,NM and NV, and still not win.

The worry really if you are going to worry is FLA, that’s a big enough swing, that if it goes D, turning PA may not be enough. FLA+IA = + 34 -21 = +13 (Fauxbama needs 19 more than Kerry to win) so he’d only need 6 more EC votes to win.

Now, let me say this, and say this clearly... I DO NOT THINK FAUXBAMA IS GOING TO WIN THIS ELECTION... please don’t think that because I put up some scenarios that could result in it that I believe its going to come to pass.. I DON’T!!

I don’t believe FL, NC, VA, MO or OH are going to go D... I firmly believe PA is going to go R. Now with that said, there is no path which Fauxbama can win, regardless of those western states... If PA turns and he holds the south and OH, and if PA does turn I can’t see OH going D... there is no calculus that Fauxbama can win. He’d have to hold everything else Kerry won and pick up 40 EC votes, and IA, NV,NM, and CO only add up to 26. And I am not conceding NV,NM or CO, I am just saying he turns PA, and holds the south and OH.. there is no way for Fauxbama to win.

[redangus]

We will have a pretty good idea how things are going early. I would watch NH. McCain owns NH, he doesn’t have to win it, but if he does poorly there that is not good. If IN and KY go for Mac early that is good sign, if they can’t call one or both of these states early it may mean trouble. If VA, FL or NC goes to Barry we are in big trouble and can probably call it a night. OH is going to be hard to tell because of the massive USSC aided voter fraud. I would love to see PA go early for Mac, but I think the voter fraud in Philly and Pitt will make that hard to achieve even if all the bitter, church-going, gun clinging, “racist” Hillary voters come to our side. Once out west I think NV is going to be a tough sell with the growth of Las Vegas and the surrounding Clark County. Most of these new people are liberals from back east or immigrants from high tax CA who insanely leave their liberal cesspools, but bring their liberal ideas and leanings with them to infect a new area. Unless all those “horrible non-Christian Mormons” come out and vote big for our side I see no chance here. CO is harder to pick. There are a lot of new liberal, latte types in the big cities and a good growth in Hispanics throughout the state. NM is probably off the table. I think Richardson brings home the bacon for the Dems here. So with the loss of NM, NV, and possible CO we have to pick up something further east. Maybe WI or MN or both.

I don’t think it will be over early though VA, NC or FL could prove me wrong, but I am worried about the overall outcome being in our favor.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Here are my predictions:

McCain

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Minnesota - 10
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 5
New Hampshire - 4
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 20
Oklahoma - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

Total - 309

Obama

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
District of Columbia - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachussets - 12
Michigan - 17
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Oregon - 7
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

Total - 229

I further predict that Obama will not get the full number of electoral votes as I believe that at least 5 members of the electoral college will be “unfaithful electors” and vote for Hillary Clinton.

[Technical Editor]

What kind of software do you develop?

On what is your prediction based?

Thanks — I do like your prediction a lot and hope you’re right, but I’d like a little more than just it to turn over in my mind and cuddle up with, if you know what I mean.

[WalterSkinner]

..my EV map from a month ago, but I now think it may change. Throw in Wisconsin and part of Maine--yes I'm being very optimistic...

[scottinoc]

270 McCain 268 Marxist messiah. With a big huge Thank You to the people of New Hampshire.

[truthandlife]

I think you are right on the money. Obama is going to implode in the last few weeks after McCain continues to gain.

[vetvetdoug]

I predict before 1% of the vote in the EST zone is in, the MSM will call the election for Obama. The election will be close instead and it will be the next day before we have an outcome. If McCain is the winner, we will have Democrat lawyers in court until the next May. If Obama is elected there will be righteous riots all over in his name and almost outright anarchy.

[scratcher]

My Prediction:

McCain carries all the states.
Obama carries McCains coat.

[WalterSkinner]

..you can feel (I know that’s subjective) the movement toward McCain - Palin since the last debate, Joe the Plumber and McCain’s performance at the Al Smith dinner. Even the oversampled, messed up polls are starting to show a trend...

[Jeff Head]

Give people hope and defeat the MSM and Obama campaign's efforts to supress the conservative vote by pointing folks to the following:

SARAH PALIN DRAWING LARGE CROWDS ALL ACROSS AMERICA
http://www.jeffhead.com/palin/palin-hiding.htm

Seeing those pics from all over the country tells the real story of what is happening on the ground in this campaign.

[jersey117]

McCain wins with 56% of the vote.

[spectre]

What a breath of fresh air you posted!

Welcome to FR :)

sw

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

I predict I will be very nervous for the next two and a half weeks, and will spend election night in the ER, or maybe the CICU.