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General Election Polls: A History of Inaccuracy
Associated Content ^ | Feb. 2, 2008 | Nithin Coca

Posted on 10/14/2008 6:33:44 PM PDT by FocusNexus

The Sad History of General Election Polls, and How They Have Repeatedly Failed to Predict the Outcomes of Presidential Elections

Nov 1980, Gallup Pre-Election Poll Carter 44% Reagan 41%

Final Results

Reagan 50.7% Carter 41.0%

Sept 2000 Newsweek Al Gore 49% George W. Bush 39%

Final Results Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4%

(Excerpt) Read more at associatedcontent.com ...


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: electionpresident; elections; mccain; obama; poll
Article is from Feb., but it has good historical reminders that we can use right about now, when some polls are coming out showing Hussein 10-12 points ahead of Sidney. ( just so nobody complains about using middle name of one candidate, but not the other)
1 posted on 10/14/2008 6:33:45 PM PDT by FocusNexus
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To: FocusNexus
The pollsters never claim to predict the election results. Their polls simply represent voting sentiment of the voting public at large as of the day they were taken.

We're the fools for trying to read too much into them.

2 posted on 10/14/2008 6:36:54 PM PDT by BfloGuy (It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker, that we can expect . . .)
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To: BfloGuy

The polls are like nailing jello to a wall.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops


3 posted on 10/14/2008 6:38:39 PM PDT by bray (It's the Corruption Stupid)
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To: FocusNexus

There’s no way Hussein Osama will win. Call it Bradley effect or whatever, but when real Americans punch a ballot they will not vote for an Islamic terrorist. I have no doubt about it and have lost no sleep worrying about it.

I’m more concerned about how McCain may damage us as president. That’s what we should focus on, and be sure we’re sending him a clear message. The base will turn out to support him, and he better return the hell out of that favor.


4 posted on 10/14/2008 6:38:54 PM PDT by ObamaOsamaisaTerrorist
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To: ObamaOsamaisaTerrorist

McCain did pick Sarah as his VP — I would consider this a strong message and a very hopeful sign for conservatives.


5 posted on 10/14/2008 6:41:12 PM PDT by FocusNexus ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: FocusNexus

Polls are notoriously better one day before an election than they are 5 days before than they are 10 days before than they are one month before.

This is common sense. A few days before an election, one would expect a voter to be making final decisions about how he/she will vote. A month before an election one would expect more clarity than a year before.

We are 3 weeks prior and there is time yet for opinions to change. I, for example, have decided that the Constitution Party is my fall back position. I intend to vote for McCain/Palin unless something absolutely drastic happens.


6 posted on 10/14/2008 6:42:41 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain Pro Deo et Patria)
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To: xzins

Remember, exit polls on the day of election predicted a Kerry landslide in 2004.


7 posted on 10/14/2008 6:44:01 PM PDT by FocusNexus ("Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing." -- Vince Lombardi)
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To: ObamaOsamaisaTerrorist
Hope you are right, love the positive attitude and agree with it, but can't wait to hear what you have to say if your wrong!

Every once in awhile I say to myself what if the impossible happens? What will I say? What will I do?

I have no answers to those questions because I quickly dismiss them.

So if the unlikely happens, I want to know what others who believe as I, will have to say?

8 posted on 10/14/2008 6:47:22 PM PDT by PISANO
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To: FocusNexus

My understanding is that the exit polls were very poorly designed.


9 posted on 10/14/2008 6:48:20 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain Pro Deo et Patria)
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To: FocusNexus

“Final Results Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4%”

I’ll bet you Algore cringes every time he sees this.

That would have been a great T-Shirt....47.9%


10 posted on 10/14/2008 6:50:22 PM PDT by edh (I need a better tagline)
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To: FocusNexus
Hey now. I'm from Pittsburgh, we love guys named Sidney....


11 posted on 10/14/2008 6:54:47 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.")
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To: FocusNexus

I remember.

It was fun watching the MSM anchors coming unglued as the night went on and the real results came in. They looked silly with with looks of shock on their faces.....or was that egg on their faces?


12 posted on 10/14/2008 6:56:50 PM PDT by Emperor Palpatine ("Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.")
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To: ObamaOsamaisaTerrorist
There’s no way Hussein Osama will win. Call it Bradley effect or whatever, but when real Americans punch a ballot they will not vote for an Islamic terrorist. I have no doubt about it and have lost no sleep worrying about it.

You are deluding yourself. Unless McCain can make a dramatic change, BHO will win easily. There was a poll released today showing BHO with a 9 point lead in Colorado. The economic situation will give the election to BHO. Even without the economic situation, McCain faced an uphill battle. BHO will win simply because he is more likable to independent voters. A good part of the country is looking for big government to bail them out. The rats will win every time that the electorate wants big government. It is ironic that the rats have been an instigator in almost every economic problem. They have cleverly managed to blame conservatives for the failures of their horrible policies.

13 posted on 10/14/2008 6:57:59 PM PDT by businessprofessor
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To: xzins

I think if a person hasn’t made up their mind who they are going to vote for a month before an election, they probably don’t care enough to vote at all.


14 posted on 10/14/2008 7:08:36 PM PDT by beckysueb (Drill here! Drill now!)
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To: xzins

“I, for example, have decided that the Constitution Party is my fall back position. I intend to vote for McCain/Palin unless something absolutely drastic happens.”

Stop reading my mind!!!! LOL

When McCain got the nomination, I opened up the Libertarian and the Constitution party platforms in side-by-side windows for comparison. There’s a world of difference. It’s liberals v. conservatives.

After thinking a bit about the McCain platform, I sent the CP a donation right away.


15 posted on 10/14/2008 7:18:31 PM PDT by pyrless (If you're gonna burn our flag, make sure you wrap yourself in it first!)
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To: FocusNexus
Except for one thing about polls..
Polls are LESS THAN 50% accurate..
Polls are sophisticated propaganda...
16 posted on 10/14/2008 7:40:22 PM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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