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2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/13/2008
InTrade ^ | Monday, October 13, 2008 | Momaw Nadon

Posted on 10/13/2008 4:41:46 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon



TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008; 2008election; 2008polls; election; electionpresident; elections; electoral; electoralvotes; intrade; itstheeconomystupid; mccain; mccainpalin; obama; obamabiden; presidential; projected; votes
Intrade.com is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things such as the results of elections.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2008 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, John McCain would receive 174 Electoral Votes and Barack Obama would receive 364 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of John McCain winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then John McCain should get 204.42 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

1 posted on 10/13/2008 4:41:46 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
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Previous projections:

2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 10/6/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/29/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/22/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/15/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/8/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/1/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/30/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/23/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/16/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/9/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/2/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/26/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/19/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/12/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/5/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/7/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/31/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/24/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/17/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/10/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/3/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/25/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/18/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/11/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/4/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/28/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/14/2008
2008 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/7/2008

2 posted on 10/13/2008 4:42:02 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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3 posted on 10/13/2008 4:42:30 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Aeronaut; amigatec; angkor; annyokie; beckysueb; billva; BlessedByLiberty; bluefish; ...


If you want on (or off) of the weekly InTrade Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.


4 posted on 10/13/2008 4:43:06 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

When the day is done, there is no way McCain loses Nevada, North Carolina, Virginian or WV. I see this being very close to the bitter end.


5 posted on 10/13/2008 4:47:33 PM PDT by GerardKempf (Let's Get Over This)
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To: GerardKempf

I meant at the no way he loses Missouri (already took into account he wraps up WV)


6 posted on 10/13/2008 4:48:33 PM PDT by GerardKempf (Let's Get Over This)
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To: Momaw Nadon

There is a lot of great, great money bets to be had here.

3-1 odds that McCain wins Ohio! WOW! That’s mortgage the house and bet it all type of odds.


7 posted on 10/13/2008 4:48:48 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Momaw Nadon

Are any of the legislative races feeling any of the effects of irritated voters because of the bail out?


8 posted on 10/13/2008 4:50:20 PM PDT by rbbeachkid (When is enough enough?)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Thanks for the ping. Polls today show McCain within 4 points of Obama nationally. That suggests some good buy opportunities on some key states and the individual pres contract, which is at 27 for McCain now, nice & cheap.


9 posted on 10/13/2008 4:51:10 PM PDT by Kevmo (I love that sound and please let that baby keep on crying. ~Sarah Palin)
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To: AmericaUnited

Kerry Leads Bush 49% to 43% In Ohio (October 22 2004)

President Kerry says bet the ranch and take the 3-1 odds in Ohio!!!


10 posted on 10/13/2008 4:52:45 PM PDT by AmericaUnited
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To: Momaw Nadon

So, McCain needs to flip CO, FL, IA, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH. It’s doable, but cutting it close. My dream scenario is seeing networks call the election for Obama based on early returns in the ET zone...and then CA shockingly goes in McCain’s column late in the evening. Can you imagine the talking heads like Olbermann if that were to happen? They would be suicidal.


11 posted on 10/13/2008 4:56:06 PM PDT by Azzurri
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To: Azzurri
All the Prop 8 votes in the world couldn't get CA to flip ... but a nice fantasy.

I prefer a fantasy where CA is split into two states, and the GOP has a shot at winning one of them. Of course, then Texas would have the largest delegation in the House. Hmmmmm

12 posted on 10/13/2008 5:01:11 PM PDT by Tanniker Smith (Teachers open the door. It's up to you to enter. Before the late bell. When I close the door.)
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To: Azzurri

You guys read to many BS polls.

McCain could win NJ and maybe CA. People keep talking about CA.

Get out and volunteer and donate to McCain-Palin 2008.


13 posted on 10/13/2008 5:16:34 PM PDT by Frantzie
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To: Momaw Nadon
If the traders are correct

Given the roller coaster market we have now, these 'traders' are liable to bet on the sun rising in the south.

14 posted on 10/13/2008 5:22:36 PM PDT by tbpiper
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To: Tanniker Smith

Winner take all, Has to go in CA, or make SF and Hollyweird into a separate state


15 posted on 10/13/2008 5:25:31 PM PDT by Foolsgold ("We live in the greatest country in the world and I am going to change it" Barry O'boomarang 2008)
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To: Azzurri

Add VA to that list... Obama may win it, but it shouldn’t be 4-to-1 odds as it is now.


16 posted on 10/13/2008 5:39:45 PM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds ("The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

RCP has Florida and Virginia leaning Obama at this time. This has been such a bizarre election though, full of surprises.


17 posted on 10/14/2008 5:46:24 AM PDT by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (I want to "Buy American" but the only things for sale made in the USA are politicians)
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To: Momaw Nadon

What was it at this point back in ‘00?


18 posted on 10/15/2008 9:21:35 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican
What was it at this point back in ‘00?

No data for 2000. InTrade was started in 2002.

On 10-11-2004 it was Bush 295, Kerry 243.

19 posted on 10/17/2008 5:20:34 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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