Posted on 10/11/2008 2:20:55 PM PDT by Clintonfatigued
Barack Obama is now ahead in every state won by John Kerry four years ago, and New Jersey is no exception.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey finds Obama attracting 50% of the vote while McCain earns just 42%.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
NJ is not in play. Repeat, NJ is not in play. That said, in a phoney Ras poll, 8% (really, probably about 4%) is pretty impressive.
Actually, I thought Obama would be leading be a lot more in New Jersey. This is not a spectacular showing for him. If McCain can make a comeback, winning New Jersey might be possible.
Uhhhhh Thats not that commanding a lead for such a leftist electorate. In fact Id be concerned if I were NObama
Uhhhhh Thats not that commanding a lead for such a leftist electorate. In fact Id be concerned if I were NObama
who took NJ in the primaries? Clinton or Obama? -and by how much?
I agree with your comments! Considering it is a Rasmussen poll, this lead is not very much. I would have expected a much larger lead.
If Dems are betting on Rasmussen for accurate state polls, they may have a rude awakening.
Hmm...in 2004, the breakdown by party ID in the Presidential election was D39, I31, I30 in New Jersey. That’s eight points. Obama’s lead in this poll is....8 points. Kerry actually defeated Bush in New Jersey by 7 points. Nationally, Bush won by 2.4 points.
This is the latest piece of evidence that tells me that, in fact, on a national level, if you assume turnout that will be similar to previous election cycles, McCain is in a much stronger position than what the polls currently suggest.
Only a single point better than Kerry, who won New Jersey by 7 points while losing nationally by 2.4 points.
And McCain hasn’t campaigned there AT ALL. Makes you wonder. McCain has been campaigning hard in WI, IA, MN, CO, OH (naturally), VA, will make a stop in NC, a little in FL. Very little in NV or MO. I take that to mean the McCain campaign sees those as safe. I think the stops in FL and OH are just to keep Obama spending money and time there.
McCain had better worry more about NC, VA, OH & FL instead of chasing the pipe dream of NJ.
so we’re supposed to believe he’s up 8 in NJ, but 11 nationally? yeah, okay!
What were the internals of this poll? How much of a Democrat over-count was there? If other polls they’ve been boosting the Democrat count by 8 - 10%, at least. So ... was Obama given an over-count of 45% Democrat, 35% Republican and 20% Independent?
I have seen Obama commercials on NYC broadcast stations (which, of course, take in northern NJ). He is spending money in the tri-state area for some reason I have yet to ascertain.
Joseph Stalin would lead George Washington in the Garbage State.
McCain is campaigning like a guy who is either up about 3-4 points in the polls or assumes he will be up about 3-4 points by election day. Either he needs to fire his private pollster or the entire public polling industry needs to stop oversampling Democrats. :)
And yet he's stagnant in New Jersey.
Mmmmm hmmmmm. That's believable.
If McCain is even close to Obama in New Jersey, he is going to win handily. Rasmussen is one of those pollsters who does weight by party ID, and he has been assuming that Democrats will have a much bigger turnout advantage than in the last two Presidential elections. If, after all this, he has Obama up only 8 points in New Jersey, that’s good for McCain nationally.
Here’s the thing - it was ok saying Obama should be far more ahead in any state, but it’s down to days and hours now. If he wins all those states by just .5%, he wins the electoral votes.
Sorry top break the news to some folks but if the consensus here is that he should be ahead by 10 but in fact is ahead by only 4 or 5, he still wins.
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